The U.S. stock market starts to play the Fed game again

With the shutdown/debt ceiling crisis behind us, the stock market is free to worry about a slowdown in U.S. economic growth and to hope for a delay in the Federal Reserve’s taper until sometime in 2014. That’s pushing the U.S. market away from growth sensitive stocks and toward stocks with safe dividends that won’t be cut even if the economy stumbles.

Is December really the new September for a Fed taper?

The movement toward a consensus view that the Fed won’t taper until it’s December meeting hit a speed bump today when James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said that the Fed could still move in October. The September call was so borderline, Bullard said, that the Fed might have enough data in a month to begin a very small taper.

Did the Fed decide not to taper because it’s afraid that Congress will do something really stupid?

Looking for any explanation for why the Fed kept its program of buying $85 billion in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities intact, it’s language that points toward fiscal tightening that pops out at me. Think about a new all-time record on the Standard & Poor’s 500 and a bond rally today because the Federal Reserve is afraid that Congress could really muck up the U.S. economy in the next few weeks (or days.)

Surprise! No taper from the Fed

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