July 31, 2019 | Daily JAM |
Can you connect the dots? No one in Washington seems to be willing to make the effort. On a day when the Federal Reserve said it would cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points and end its efforts to sell some of the bonds in its own portfolio two months...
July 27, 2019 | Daily JAM |
... an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve at its July 31 meeting. That market sure expects the Fed to reduce rates. The CME FedWatch Tool placed the odds of an interest rate cut at 100% on Friday. That means that the market has priced in a drop in interest...
July 12, 2019 | Daily JAM, Stock Alerts, TBX, Volatility |
I bought this position in the Pro Shares Short 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (TBX) in my Volatility Portfolio on February 2, 2018, back in the days when it looked like the Federal Reserve was firmly locked into a policy of interest rate increases. An interest rate increase...
July 12, 2019 | Daily JAM, Stock Alerts, VGIT, VGSH, Volatility |
Treasury prices have been a little weak over the last two weeks. As a consequence the Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) and the Vanguard Short Term Treasury ETF (VGSH), for example, have dropped from highs on June 25 of $66.03 and $60.94, respectively, to...
July 12, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Trade analysts call Singapore's export-driven economy the canary in the coal mine for the global economy. In which case that canary is looking kind of wobbly lately. Singapore's GDP contracted at an annualized 3.4% rate in the second quarter. That's the biggest...
July 11, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
In the second day of his semi-annual testimony to Congress--this time in front of the Senate--Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell sounded even more likely to support an interest rate cut at the central bank's July meeting. The Fed has room to cut rates, he said,...
July 10, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell had an opportunity this morning to talk down the odds of an interest rate cut at the central bank's July 31 meeting in testimony in front of the House Financial Services Committee. He didn't--and I think that makes a 25 basis point...
July 2, 2019 | Daily JAM, Volatility |
In a speech today, July 2, in London Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, argued against an interest rate cut at the central bank's July 31 meeting. “Cutting rates at this juncture could reinforce negative sentiment about a deterioration in...
June 28, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, picked up in May by 0.2% from April. That took the annual inflation rate to 1.6%. That was just above the median estimate from economists surveyed by Bloomberg and...
June 27, 2019 | Daily JAM, GOLD, Morning Briefing, VGIT, VGSH |
Today with the yield on the 10-year Treasury down to 2.02%, a drop of 2 basis points, two Wall Street heavy weights are predicting that we haven't seen a bottom in yield yet. Not by a long shot. Goldman Sachs today cut its forecast for the year-end yield on the...
June 20, 2019 | Daily JAM, Stock Alerts, VGSH, Volatility |
Last night I made Vanguard Short Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) the No. 2 pick in my Special Report 10 Best Picks for the Next 6 Months of 2019. Today I'm adding it to my Jubak Picks Portfolio. I'm calling this my Judy Shelton Pick. I'll explain what that means in a moment....
June 19, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
So much for "patient." Today after the meeting of the Open Market Committee on interest rates the Federal Reserve announced that it would leave benchmark interest rates at the current 2.25% to 2.50%. But in its words the Fed delivered what the market hoped for--a...
