October 15, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
If the market were inclined to sell off today, it could have found plenty of reasons. Under the heading of one-off scary stuff, I'd put:Â Continued tensions between the Saudis and just about everyone else over allegations--which look to be true--that the Saudi...
October 10, 2018 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
At 3:30 p.m. New York time the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down a big 2.39% or 632 points. The Standard & Poor's 500 was lower by 2.55%. The NASDAQ Composite Index fell 3.16%. The rout came on fears that the U.S.-China trade war would cut into U.S., Chinese,...
October 9, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Just what we need: More worries about global growth. Last night the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast for global economic growth to 3.7% in 2018 and 2019. In its last forecast three months ago the IMF had projected that the global economy would grow...
October 8, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Actually, considering the list of fears today, it's kind of remarkable that the U.S. stock market hasn't fallen farther. (The U.S. bond market is closed for the Columbus Day holiday.) In the EuroZone the confrontation between the Italian government and the European...
October 5, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term, You Might Have Missed |
The economy added only 134,000 new jobs in September--probably a result of Hurricane Florence. But a huge revision to August and July job gains more than offset the weak current month. Economists surveyed surveyed by Briefing.com had projected the economy would add...
October 4, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Bond prices fell and bond yields climbed, sending stock prices lower today, October 4. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose another basis point today, after climbing yesterday, to 3.19%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury climbed to 2.88%, up 4 basis points. A lower...
September 28, 2018 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
I don't think there's anything more important to financial markets--well, assuming we don't get some kind of completely off-the-wall black swan event--over the next three months or so than the strength or weakness of the dollar. My judgment on trends in the greenback...
September 25, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Oil prices are up again this morning with the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate ahead 0.21% to $72.23 a barrel as of noon New York time. International benchmark Brent has gained 1.02% to $82.03 a barrel. But "the" story today, I'd argue, is the Treasury market on...
September 20, 2018 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Remember back at the beginning of 2018 when bond investors and traders couldn't agree on whether the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates two times, or three times or four times in the year? (It wound up being four.) Well, we're looking at a replay of that...
September 18, 2018 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Talk about frustratingly lagging data. China’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries fell to a six-month low in July, according to the latest data from the Treasury Department released today. The first found of U.S. tariffs went into effect on July 6. China’s ownership of U.S....
August 2, 2018 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
Yesterday the Treasury Department said that it will raise long-term debt issuance to $78 billion this quarter. That would be an increase from the $73 billion in sales last quarter and the third consecutive quarterly increase. The increased sales of Treasury debt are...
August 1, 2018 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Volatility |
Today Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate at 1.75% to 2.00% and described the U.S. economy in terms that make an interest rate increase at the central bank's September 26 meeting a virtual certainty (absent some startling news event). The CME FedWatch...
