U.S. stocks gently slide but VIX “fear index” continues retreat
If the market were inclined to sell off today, it could have found plenty of reasons. Under the heading of one-off scary stuff, I'd put:Â Continued tensions between the Saudis and just about everyone else over allegations--which look to be true--that the Saudi...
Tomorrow’s inflation numbers are important after today’s rout
At 3:30 p.m. New York time the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down a big 2.39% or 632 points. The Standard & Poor's 500 was lower by 2.55%. The NASDAQ Composite Index fell 3.16%. The rout came on fears that the U.S.-China trade war would cut into U.S., Chinese,...
International Monetary Fund cuts global growth estimates
Just what we need: More worries about global growth. Last night the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast for global economic growth to 3.7% in 2018 and 2019. In its last forecast three months ago the IMF had projected that the global economy would grow...
Markets decide they have nothing to fear except Treasury auctions, Italian budget, and U.S.-China trade war
Actually, considering the list of fears today, it's kind of remarkable that the U.S. stock market hasn't fallen farther. (The U.S. bond market is closed for the Columbus Day holiday.) In the EuroZone the confrontation between the Italian government and the European...
“Odd” job numbers this morning for September but job market still strong
The economy added only 134,000 new jobs in September--probably a result of Hurricane Florence. But a huge revision to August and July job gains more than offset the weak current month. Economists surveyed surveyed by Briefing.com had projected the economy would add...
Bond market takes a bite out of stocks today
Bond prices fell and bond yields climbed, sending stock prices lower today, October 4. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose another basis point today, after climbing yesterday, to 3.19%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury climbed to 2.88%, up 4 basis points. A lower...
Dollar fundamentals continue to erode
I don't think there's anything more important to financial markets--well, assuming we don't get some kind of completely off-the-wall black swan event--over the next three months or so than the strength or weakness of the dollar. My judgment on trends in the greenback...
Oil is a story today, but Treasury market is “the” story
Oil prices are up again this morning with the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate ahead 0.21% to $72.23 a barrel as of noon New York time. International benchmark Brent has gained 1.02% to $82.03 a barrel. But "the" story today, I'd argue, is the Treasury market on...
Battle over bond yields, interest rates shifts to 2019
Remember back at the beginning of 2018 when bond investors and traders couldn't agree on whether the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates two times, or three times or four times in the year? (It wound up being four.) Well, we're looking at a replay of that...
China cut buying of U.S. Treasuries in July–but what’s happening now?
Talk about frustratingly lagging data. China’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries fell to a six-month low in July, according to the latest data from the Treasury Department released today. The first found of U.S. tariffs went into effect on July 6. China’s ownership of U.S....
Is 10-year yield above 3% finally here to stay? U.S. Treasury raises targets for debt sales in second half of 2018
Yesterday the Treasury Department said that it will raise long-term debt issuance to $78 billion this quarter. That would be an increase from the $73 billion in sales last quarter and the third consecutive quarterly increase. The increased sales of Treasury debt are...Jim’s Stock Alerts
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