White House again says China deal is near; Wall Street says show us the signatures
The White House rolled out another round of its ongoing soap opera "As the Deal Turns." starring, this week Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow (again.) The stock market yawned. “If you look at whenever they say ‘trade war is...
Does Fed, market complacency make you nervous?
“The U.S. economy is the star economy these days,” Fed chair Jerome Powell told the House Budget Committee today, November 14. “There is no reason to think that I could see that the probability of a recession is at all elevated at this time.” “Our forecast is, and our...Tariff roll back or not? Markets certainly don’t know.
The uncertainty extends even to whether or not a Part 1 trade deal between the United States and China will even get signed in 2019. Yesterday, China’s Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng said negotiators had “agreed to remove additional tariffs in phases as...
Markets climb on Chinese statements promising tariff roll backs on signing of Part 1 deal
Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Geo Feng set off a rally in financial markets today by saying, “In the past two weeks, top negotiators had serious, constructive discussions and agreed to remove the additional tariffs in phases as progress is made on the agreement.”...
Failure to set Trump-Xi meeting place and date stalls market
It now looks likely that President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping may not be able to sign that Part 1 trade deal until December. The two sides still haven't set a date or a place. The Chinese have ruled out the first two U.S. suggestions of Iowa and Alaska and...
Treasury yields climb again–how far will they go?
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury climbed another 10 basis points today to 1.85%. The yield is now up 32 basis points in the last month, although it is still down 135 basis points in a year. That leaves the yield on the 10-year Treasury 40 basis points above its...
Where and when will President Trump and President Xi meet to sign a Part 1 Trade Deal?
Continued political protests against the government of President Sebastian Pinera have led to the cancellation of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit that was to have taken place in Santiago, Chile, in November. 20 people have been killed in the protests and...
Trick or Trend: Handicapping the next move in the U.S.-China trade war
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Saturday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. U.S. stocks...
China’s economy continues to slow–manageably so far
In the third quarter GDP in China grew by 6%. That's the slowest pace since the early 1990s and below the forecast of 6.1% growth from economists surveyed by Bloomberg. From the reaction--or maybe more precisely "non-reaction"--by the government and the central bank...
So last Friday’s “agreement” on U.S.-China trade wasn’t really an agreement
China now says it wants to hold more talks this month to hammer out the details of the U.S.-China mini-deal announced by President Donald Trump on Friday before Chinese President Xi Jinping will sign it, both Bloomberg and the Washington Post are reporting today....
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
...the financial markets to beg for clarity on what's actually in the mini-trade deal between the United States and China announced by President Donald Trump on Friday and for assurance that there deal will actually get signed. But I think the markets are going to be...Jim’s Stock Alerts
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