August 1, 2022 | Daily JAM |
I ended my recent post “This looks like the Bear Market rally I’ve been waiting for” on my subscription JubakAM.com site by saying “Enjoy the ride but look to sell shares of companies that look most exposed to the return of recession/high interest rates/inflation worries. That post had been up for all of 18 minutes before I got the perfectly reasonable question “Like what?” And I promised an answer so here are my preliminary thoughts on what I’d look to sell in a Bear Market rally
July 12, 2022 | Daily JAM, DAL |
Today, July 12, shares of American Airlines (AAL) closed up 9.98%. The company announced that it expects to post a pretax profit of $585 million in the second quarter as vacationers pack planes during the summer peak season. The company expects revenue to be about 12% higher than in the same quarter in the pre-Pandemic year of 2019.
April 21, 2022 | BKNG, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Videos |
My one-hundredth-and-twenty-fourth YouTube video “Quick Pick Booking Holdings Update” went up today. Today I’m updating my Quick Pick from about a month ago to say that this last week’s earnings report from Delta (DAL) plus optimistic forecasts and earnings from American Airlines and United Airlines only make me more confident of the growth story for Booking. I think that with travel returns to near pre-Pandemic normal this summer, travel booking sites will see revenue increases in the later quarters of 2022. Plus, these sites don’t have to worry about fuel costs like actual airlines. (And I think”bargain hunting” sites like those owned by Booking Holdings will get an extra boost from rising inflation and from worries about a potential recession. I’ll be adding these shares to my Jubak Picks portfolio with a target price of $2800 a share tomorrow, Friday, April 22.
April 19, 2022 | Daily JAM, DAL |
You don’t need to look in obscure, dark corners of the financial market for the reason for today’s big drop in oil prices. The IMF sharply cut its forecast for global growth today and China announced that it would keep its Zero Cover lockdowns in effect. A slower global and Chinese economies will lower global demand for oil. But… After pulling back to establish new positions, Russia has launched an intense bombardment all across Ukraine to soften up the country as Russia troops roll into Ukraine’s eastern region, the home of pro-Russian separatist governments. The new fighting promises to be even more vicious than the old fighting and already Ukraine’s Western supporters are looking for new sanctions to impose on Russia
April 13, 2022 | Daily JAM, DAL, Jubak Picks |
Delta Air Lines (DAL) reported a smaller than expected first quarter loss today and shares rose strongly after the company said a strong rebound in summer traffic would turn results positive in the second quarter. As of noon New York time Delta shares were up 4.51%. The airline lost $1.23 a share, slightly less than the Wall Street consensus of a $1.27 a share loss
April 11, 2022 | Daily JAM, DAL, Jubak Picks |
As of 3 p.m. New York time Monday, April 11, airline stocks were rallying strongly ahead of Delta Air Lines (DAL) earnings report Wednesday morning. Delta shares were up 4.68%. Shares of American Airlines (AAL) had gained 3.04%. And United Airlines Holdings (UAL) was ahead 1.72%.
March 15, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing |
Oil prices collapsed. And airlines reported better than expected pick up in traffic. So airline stocks soared with the most stressed operators showing the biggest gains in their shares. Delta Air Lines (DAL) closed up 8.70% on the day. United Airlines (ULA) picked up 9.19%. And American Airlines (AAL) gained 9.26%.
March 1, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
With Russian troops laying siege to Ukraine’s two largest cities, I certainly don’t blame financial markets for a high degree of anxiety. After all investors and traders are also looking at the consequences of massive sanctions piled on Russian banks including the country’s central bank, disruptions of the global grain trade, and energy shortages here, there, and everywhere. The selling today is fundamentally different from yesterday’s (as well as being greater). Some of the selling is an attempt to gain shelter from the Russia war and sanctions storm. Airlines stocks, which will take a hit from higher prices for jet fuel and any drop in the appetite for flying, were down with American Airlines (AL) off 5.57% and United Airlines (UAL) lower by 5.74%. Some of the selling seems a reasonable guess at where there might be problems. U.S. banks are down heavily even though various experts say they have little or no Russia exposure. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) was down 3.77% and Bank of America (BAC) was off 3.91%. But some of the selling is just selling, either to reduce risk or to raise cash, without any specific connection to Russia and the Russia sanctions. Tesla (TSLA) was down 0.70% at the close as and construction aggregate producer Vulcan Materials (VMC) was significantly lower by 3.86%. Fewer states will repave their roads because of the sanctions on Russia’s central bank?
February 24, 2022 | CRWD, Daily JAM, DAL, EQNR, Jubak Picks, LNG, Millennial, Morning Briefing, PXD, Top 50 Stocks |
With the Russian invasion of Ukraine about to trigger another package of tougher U.S. and European sanctions, I think we can expect Russia to delver on Vladimir Putin’s promise of retaliation. The most obvious form of that will be cyberattacks on U.S. infrastructure, like the Colonial Pipeline attack, on U.S. financial systems through hacking to steal customer information and denial of service attacks, and on attacks to break into U.S. corporate networks to either paralyze those networks or to effectively put them off line. I wouldn’t rule out attacks on government infrastructure either at local, state, and national levels.
April 20, 2021 | Daily JAM |
Yesterday, April 19, after the close United Airlines (UAL) reported a loss of $3.21 a share (excluding non-recurring items) or a $7.50 a share all in loss for the first quarter of 2021. Wall Street had been looking for an all-in loss of $6.97 for the quarter. Operating revenues of $3.221 billion also fell short of estimates at $3.253 billion.
March 15, 2021 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed up 0.65% today and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.53% to set new record highs. Technology stocks rebounded from recent weakness with the NASDAQ finishing ahead by 1.05%. But the big impetus for the continued gains in the big indexes came from a sense that the economy is returning to normal.
October 14, 2020 | Daily JAM, Volatility |
After the close today, October 14, United Airlines (UAL) reported a loss to $1.8 billion for the third quarter. Operating revenue fell 78% from the third quarter of 2019. In the second quarter United lost $1.6 billion and reported an 87% drop in revenue. The third...
