September 1, 2023 | Daily JAM, Videos |
Today’s video is Once Again, The U.S. is The Only Market Game in Town. It’s hard to grasp the longer-term trend in any August because, frequently, there isn’t one. True again this year. The S&P is essentially where it was a year ago and it’s especially difficult right now to tell how the market should be priced as, once again, it looks like the U.S. is the only game in town. There are uncertainties about the U.S. economy, with the Fed continuing to raise rates and signs of consumers starting to waver. However, these uncertainties are not nearly as bad as a near-consumer strike in China and a slow-moving European economy. Because money is flowing into the U.S. market from those alternatives, it’s unclear how to calculate a current fair value for U.S. stocks. Stocks like Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia are all at record highs. Should they correct from here or move higher on the relative fundamentals? The question boils down to this: Do you get in on the only game in town, even though it is very expensive, or do you wait it for a shift in market cycles? After the Fed’s September 20 meeting, where they’ll set expectations for the future, investors should have a better idea on how to answer this question.
April 27, 2021 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, MSFT |
Great wasn’t good enough for a stock that had climbed 10.6% in the last month, 17.84% for 2021 as of the close on April 26, and 51.07% in the last year. And Microsoft shares fell in after-hours trading after reporting earnings and revenue above Wall Street estimates. Does the drop set the stage for other BIG TECH stock reporting this week–Alphabet (GOOG) today, Apple (AAPL) and Facebook (FB) tomorrow, and Amazon (AMZN) on Thursday.
February 8, 2021 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, You Might Have Missed |
Stocks climbed for a sixth straight day–the longest string of gains for the Standard & Poor’s 500 since August and with the Dow Jones Industrial Average turning in its best start for a February since 1931. The S&P 500 finished the day ahead 0.34% and the Dow gained 0.76% on the session. The NASDAQ Composite was up 0.95% and the NASDAQ 100 added 0.67%. The biggest winner for the day was the small cap Russell 2000, which gained 2.53% on strength in bank stocks and hope for more growth in the general economy. Oh, and the hope for $1,400 checks to individual Americans, hundreds of billions of dollars in state and local aid and enhanced federal unemployment benefits. And continued progress on the Covid-19 vaccination program. All this means, in my opinion, that the currently stretched valuations in this stock market are likely to get even more stretched in the coming days and weeks.
February 21, 2017 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Enough folks have missed the surprise post-election Trump rally and its continuation in 2017 that the first break in this market is likely to be shallow as money now on the sidelines moves to get in on the rally at “bargain” prices. That cash is now just waiting for the first dip to buy. Mutual fund cash positions have reached an average of 5.6%, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch
June 18, 2016 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
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October 28, 2013 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
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April 17, 2013 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Growth fears have hit the market hard again this morning. And the revival of growth fears shifts the risk/reward on emerging vs. developed markets and extends the upside on safe haven consumer stocks
