November 5, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Democrats have a roughly 7 in 8 chance of recapturing the House of Representatives, according to Nate Silver's data analysis site 538. Republicans have a 5 in 6 likelihood of maintaining control of the Senate. Officially, the Wall Street consensus is that the election...
October 26, 2018 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Volatility |
The major U.S. indexes opened the day strongly lower on disappointing earnings news and guidance from Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOG) after the market close yesterday. But the markets reversed in the morning going--the low for the day for the Standard & Poor's...
October 16, 2018 | Daily JAM, Short Term, VIX, Volatility |
Yesterday, October 16, the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) fell 17.28% to 17.62. That's a huge drop from the closing local high of 24.98 on October 11. If the market's very, very positive reaction to Netflix earnings delivered after the close yesterday is any...
October 15, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
If the market were inclined to sell off today, it could have found plenty of reasons. Under the heading of one-off scary stuff, I'd put:Â Continued tensions between the Saudis and just about everyone else over allegations--which look to be true--that the Saudi...
October 12, 2018 | Daily JAM, Short Term, VIX, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
An extremely volatile day--but the market held most of its gains into the close--and that's important if you're trying to figure out whether we've seen the last (for a while, at least) of this week's selling. Let's take a look at the Standard & Poor's 500 index as...
October 11, 2018 | Daily JAM, Stock Alerts, VIX, Volatility |
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October 5, 2018 | Daily JAM, Volatility |
Futures on the VIX, the CBOE Volatility Index, often called the "fear index" since it rises when traders look to hedge against a drop in the market, toyed with "backwardation" in today's session. If you don't know what the means, you're by no means alone. Â But what's...
September 19, 2018 | Daily JAM, Stock Alerts, VIX, Volatility |
I almost pulled the trigger and sold my VIX complacency trade today. On September 10 I added the December 19 Put on the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) to my Volatility Portfolio with a strike of 13. The trade was coupled with a buy of the November 21 Call on...
September 17, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term, VIX |
For much of today U.S. stocks were locked in a slightly negative range as investors and traders vacillated from fears that the Trump administration would impose a new set of tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods and the hope that Chinese leader Xi Jinping would...
September 7, 2018 | Daily JAM, Stock Alerts, VIX, Volatility |
It's September, the middle month of the most volatile three month period in the investing year (historically on average.) We're in the midst of an emerging market crisis that's being driven by a strong U.S. dollar--and we're looking at the high likelihood of two more...
September 7, 2018 | Daily JAM, Stock Alerts, VIX, Volatility |
It's September, the middle month of the most volatile three month period in the investing year (historically on average.) We're in the midst of an emerging market crisis that's being driven by a strong U.S. dollar--and we're looking at the high likelihood of two more...
September 7, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
The U.S. economy added a net 201,000 jobs in August. That was above the projection of 187,000 from economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Government statisticians revised the July job gains to 170,000 from 153,000. The official unemployment rate remained at 3.9%. So why...