July 27, 2021 | Daily JAM, MSFT, Short Term, Volatility |
With everything tech (just about) selling off today (along with the rest of the market) and with the shares of the tech companies due to report today dropping as well, I think the odds have improved for a bounce in those reporting companies on earnings surprises. Microsoft (MSFT) is due to report today after the close and I think there’s a good likelihood that the company will post even better than expected numbers from its Azure Cloud business.
July 27, 2021 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Volatility |
With the major indexes all down ahead of tech earnings–and fear up–I’m pulling out my VIX options trade again. The rule here, until modified by reality (pesky little thing) is to buy when complacency drives the “fear index” to 16 or below, and to sell when fear rises and pushed the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) to 20 or so. This morning selling in the market sent the VIX up to 19.85, close enough for me to 20, and I’m selling the October 20, 2021 Call Options
July 19, 2021 | Daily JAM, VIX, Volatility |
As of 2:40 New York time the September 15, 2021 VIX Call Options with a strike at 20 (VIX210915C00020000) were trading at $5.90 a share, up 40.48% on the day on a move higher in the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) of 30.35% to 24.05. I’m selling this volatility hedge out of my Volatility Portfolio with a profit of 17.5% since I added it to this portfolio on June 1.
July 18, 2021 | AMD, Daily JAM, IFNNY, Jubak Picks, NVDA, NXPI, Top 50 Stocks, TSM, Volatility |
On Thursday, July 15, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), the world’s leading chip foundry, reported earnings of 93 cents a share for the second quarter, up 18% year over year. That was inline with analyst estimates. Sales rose 28%. The company raised its revenue guidance for the third quarter to a range of $14.6 billion to $14.9 billion. The midpoint of that range, $14.75 billion, was above the Wall Street consensus estimate of $14.57 billion. Sales in the third quarter of 2020 are $12.4 billion.Taiwan Semiconductor said that it now expects sales to grow more than 20% this year, an increase from the 20% target announced earlier in the year. For 2020-2025, the company raised its revenue forecast to a compound annual growth rate of 15% from a previous target of 10% to 15%. But the stock dropped 5.5% on July 15 and fell another 1.52% on Friday, July 16. Why?
July 16, 2021 | Daily JAM, EVGO, Millennial, Volatility |
On July 15, General Motors announced that Brightdrop, its new unit for recharging electric vehicles, would expand to the recharging of commercial fleet vehicles (such as FedEx.) GM named EVgo (EVgo), already partnering with GM to expand its network of fast charging stations, as a preferred partner in the fleet effort. Yesterday shares of EVgo jumped 14.18% on the news. Today, Friday, July 16, the stock gave back 2.57%. EVgo is already a member of my Volatility Portfolio where it is up 4.81% since I added it on May 19, 2021 through a purchase of shares in the the SPAC that would take the company public via a reverse merger. I’ll be adding EVgo shares to my “Millennial Portfolio (for investors with more time than money)” on Monday
July 15, 2021 | Daily JAM, VIX, Volatility |
My strategy for trading volatility using the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) has two parts
July 8, 2021 | Daily JAM, Videos, Volatility |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The thirty-third YouTube video “QuickPick: EVGO for fast charging” went up today.
July 1, 2021 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Volatility |
Yesterday in my video “3 Picks for an Earnings Blowout” I argued the case that even the 61% second quarter year to year jump in earnings in the Wall Street analyst consensus was understated.. There’s a very high likelihood that we’ll see lots of positive earnings surprise in the second quarter earnings season the begins on July 13 when JPMorgan Chase reports earnings before the market opens. In that video I suggested three stocks JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) as picks to play that second quarter earnings surprise. Today I’m adding one of these Advanced Micro Devices to my online portfolio with shares in my 12-18 month Jubak Picks Portfolio and Call Options in my Volatility Portfolio.
June 7, 2021 | Daily JAM, Volatility |
The CBOE S&P Volatility Index (VIX) dropped 8.9% on Friday, June 4, to 16.44. It’ up just slightly today to 16.73 (up 1.89%) as of 2 p.m. New York time. That’s, in my opinion, an extremely low reading on the fear index considering how many potentially market moving volatility events we’ve got ahead of us over the next six months. (For a list see my Special Report: 5 picks and 5 hedges for a falling market.) So today, June 7, I’m adding another Call Option on the ViX to my Volatility Portfolio.
June 4, 2021 | CLII, Daily JAM |
Once upon a time, way back in 2020 Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPAC), blind pools that raised money with a strategy of finding s promising still-private company to acquire and then take public, were the hottest thing on the speculative menu. They were, if I can make a comparison, the GameStops (GME) and AMCs (AMC) of that market. Then they fell way, way out of favor. But they look to be making a comeback in the last week
May 26, 2021 | BBW, Daily JAM, Volatility |
When I added shares of Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW) to my Volatility Portfolio on March 31, 2021, I was thinking that the stock would move up in price as pandemic restrictions that had forced the closing of most of the company’s stores eased. The company had made a huge and successful shift to online selling and I thought that Build-A-Bear would be able to continue that success as well as reap the revenue gains that would come from the reopening of its brick and mortar stores. But I certainly didn’t expect the stock to gain 103.91% from then until the close on May 26. The stock climbed another 39.31% today on the release of earnings and is now up 100.14% in the last three month; 78.10% in the last month, and 56.33% in the last week. I’m selling the shares today, May 27, on the great news in the earnings report for the quarter.
May 17, 2021 | Daily JAM, DIS, Volatility |
Last night I said that I’d buy the Disney Call Options for July 16 at either the $170 or $175 strike price. On Friday, I noted that the spread between the two options seemed especially large at 38.4% and that I’d wait for Monday trading to give me more of a clue on which option to prefer. Today I’m going with the $170 July 16 Call Options (DIS210716C00170000) because with today’s drop to $170.01 they remain slightly in the money and I think they’re more likely to give me a significant gain during the life of the option.
