How I’m trading volatility now with VIX Call Options
My strategy for trading volatility using the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) has two parts
Watch my new YouTube video: QuickPick: EVGO for fast charging
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The thirty-third YouTube video “QuickPick: EVGO for fast charging” went up today.
Buying AMD shares and options tomorrow as my play on a second quarter earnings season surprise
Yesterday in my video “3 Picks for an Earnings Blowout” I argued the case that even the 61% second quarter year to year jump in earnings in the Wall Street analyst consensus was understated.. There’s a very high likelihood that we’ll see lots of positive earnings surprise in the second quarter earnings season the begins on July 13 when JPMorgan Chase reports earnings before the market opens. In that video I suggested three stocks JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) as picks to play that second quarter earnings surprise. Today I’m adding one of these Advanced Micro Devices to my online portfolio with shares in my 12-18 month Jubak Picks Portfolio and Call Options in my Volatility Portfolio.
On the market’s risk complacency, I’m adding another VIX call to my Volatility Portfolio–this one for October
The CBOE S&P Volatility Index (VIX) dropped 8.9% on Friday, June 4, to 16.44. It’ up just slightly today to 16.73 (up 1.89%) as of 2 p.m. New York time. That’s, in my opinion, an extremely low reading on the fear index considering how many potentially market moving volatility events we’ve got ahead of us over the next six months. (For a list see my Special Report: 5 picks and 5 hedges for a falling market.) So today, June 7, I’m adding another Call Option on the ViX to my Volatility Portfolio.
Trick or trend: Have SPACs turned the speculative corner again?
Once upon a time, way back in 2020 Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPAC), blind pools that raised money with a strategy of finding s promising still-private company to acquire and then take public, were the hottest thing on the speculative menu. They were, if I can make a comparison, the GameStops (GME) and AMCs (AMC) of that market. Then they fell way, way out of favor. But they look to be making a comeback in the last week
Selling Build-A-Bear Workshop out of my Volatility Portfolio
When I added shares of Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW) to my Volatility Portfolio on March 31, 2021, I was thinking that the stock would move up in price as pandemic restrictions that had forced the closing of most of the company’s stores eased. The company had made a huge and successful shift to online selling and I thought that Build-A-Bear would be able to continue that success as well as reap the revenue gains that would come from the reopening of its brick and mortar stores. But I certainly didn’t expect the stock to gain 103.91% from then until the close on May 26. The stock climbed another 39.31% today on the release of earnings and is now up 100.14% in the last three month; 78.10% in the last month, and 56.33% in the last week. I’m selling the shares today, May 27, on the great news in the earnings report for the quarter.
I’m going with the Disney July 16, 2021 Calls at $170
Last night I said that I’d buy the Disney Call Options for July 16 at either the $170 or $175 strike price. On Friday, I noted that the spread between the two options seemed especially large at 38.4% and that I’d wait for Monday trading to give me more of a clue on which option to prefer. Today I’m going with the $170 July 16 Call Options (DIS210716C00170000) because with today’s drop to $170.01 they remain slightly in the money and I think they’re more likely to give me a significant gain during the life of the option.
Will this re-discovered coffee species save your morning jamoke from global warming?
Researchers looking for a way to improve the tolerance of the Arabica coffee plant that accounts for 56% of global coffee production may have found their cuppa in Sierra Leone. Coffea stenophylla grows at a mean annual temperature up to 12.24 degrees higher than Arabica. And coffee tasters say, according to Bloomberg, it has a flavor similar to Arabica rather than to the more temperature tolerant Robusta coffee used now in instant and other bulk coffees. Global coffee production is threatened by rising temperatures
Nvidia jumps 5.62% today on upgrade to revenue forecast and news of its first microprocessor for servers
Nvidia (NVDA) announced its first microprocessor for the server market today, April 12. Right now Intel (INTC) owns around 90% of the market for server processors. And the company also reported that first-quarter revenue “is tracking” above its previous forecast. Revenue in the quarter ending in April is now expected to be higher than $5.3 the billion, which Nvidia projected on February 24. Nvidia shares were up 5.62% today on the news
Dip-O-Meter update for April 9–time to give “buy on the dip” a rest for a few weeks
Looking at the recent performance numbers on the 20 stocks I’m tracking in my Dip-O-Meter as of the close on Friday April 9, I have to conclude that for most of these stocks it’s time to take a pause on any “buy on the dip” opportunities. What I’m seeing in this sample is a general weakening of the upward bounce on rally days from these stocks–and without a strong bounce on a good day there’s not much reason to buy on the dip.
My revised Dip-O-Meter as of April 1–to me it looks like this buy on the dip moment is over (but wait for next time)
This buy on the dip moment is over–this week’s revision of my Dip-O-Meter argues to me. The discounts to the February highs are, in general, getting smaller. And in many cases the size of the bounce that I’m seeing on up days is decreasing too.
Want a little more earnings leverage on “vaccine rally” pick Wyndham Hotels? Try this Call Option
Today, I’m going to review the fundamental case for Wyndham shares (the reason I added it to Jubak Picks on March 17) and give you the details on the Call Option on Wyndham that I’ll be adding to my Volatility Portfolio tomorrow.
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