


Odds on avoiding a government shutdown improve as White House backs away on demand to fund The Wall.
Last night President Donald Trump backed off his demand that any deal to fund the federal government include money to start construction on The Wall. At an event with conservative journalists, Trump said he’s okay waiting until September to have this fight. Which would seem to indicate that the President would sign a funding bill that doesn’t include money for The Wall.

Volatility collapses today–what do you do about that if anything?
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Volatility (and the VIX) might be a “buy” in the next few days
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Rising fear is showing up in other volatility measures besides the VIX
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We’ve moved to a risk-off market–for how long?
It’s a classic risk off market today as of 4 p.m. New York time. All the safe havens are up. The yen is ahead 1.2% to 109.65 to the dollar, breaching the 110 level for the first time since November. Gold is 1.73% higher to $1275.60 an ounce. The 10-year U.S. Treasury is up and the yield is down to 2.30%. And riskier asset classes are down. Modestly.

Volatility index VIX sets new higher high today
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VIX volatility index soars after Federal Reserve minutes released
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Yesterday this market tested its appetite for risk
Nothing happened to the VIX, the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index, at the close yesterday. What is sometimes called the “fear index” since it measures demand for hedges against a move in the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index, closed at 12.38. That was just 0.08% higher on the day. Something big happened to the VIX, intraday.

Could it be? An upward trend in VIX volatility? Not investible yet, though
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More life in the VIX, but I wouldn’t yet say we’re seeing a rising trend in volatility
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