Market advances on belief that polls showing a Clinton win are correct, but doesn’t crawl out too far on that limb in case the polls are about to pull a Brexit
As of 3:50 p.m. New York time–a little more than 3 hours before voting places close in bellwether states New Hampshire and Florida–the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index was ahead 0.49% and the NASDAQ Composite index was up 0.78%. In other words, U.S. stock traders and investors are looking for a Hillary Clinton victory as the polls now indicate but they’re not willing to rule out the possibility of a Brexit-style surprise. In that June 25 vote, the “stay in the European Union” position had been winning in the polls but the actual vote gave the victory to the “leave the European Union” side.
Your next trade on volatility will come after the market returns to post-election complacency (if it does)
To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one of our special offers it will be lower) for a year for ongoing and continuing access to the...Stocks rally on FBI director Comey’s second letter on Clinton emails
The hedges have been coming off today as the financial markets react to FBI director James Comey’s second letter on the FBI’s perusal of a trove of email’s on a laptop that was shared by Clinton aide Huma Abedin with her estranged husband (and former Dencratic Congressman from New York) Anthony Weiner. It’s not so much that Wall Street loves Hilary Clinton as that the markets fear the unpredictability of Donald Trump
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one of our special offers it will be lower) for a year for ongoing and continuing access to the...Think the election may be making the market a little nervous? Just look at the VIX fear index–how much higher can the price of fear go?
The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) soared another 8.79% today to 18.56 on news that a ABC News/Washington Post poll put Donald Trump ahead of Hilary Clinton 46% to 45%, and on another inexplicable release from the FBI, this time of the record of its closed 2005 investigation of President Bill Clinton’s pardon of fugitive financier Marc Rich. On October 24 the VIX closed at 13.02. But that was before the end of election political storm broke. That’s a 42.5% move to the upside
Is a 5% real annual return impossible in the years ahead? This asset allocator argues it will be–almost
To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one of our special offers it will be lower) for a year for ongoing and continuing access to the...Suddenly U.S. stocks seem vulnerable
It’s not like U.S. stocks didn’t have enough to worry about today. For the day the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index closed at 2136.73, off by 1.24%. That was enough to push the S&P 500 below the 50-day moving average. The index has been flirting with that support level since early September. Maybe in this context the warnings issued today by Wall Street technical analysts feel like piling on–or maybe they are exactly what they seem, that is warnings
A week ahead of talk about oil will produce volatility–and probably higher prices
Lots of talk with the potential to move oil markets on tap this week. Today, for example, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the World Energy Congress in Istanbul, “Russia is ready to join in joint measures to limit output and calls on other oil exporters to do the same”
Is this coffee ETN the perfect uncorrelated, global warming play?
To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one of our special offers it will be lower) for a year for ongoing and continuing access to the...Good Census news reveals tale of two economies
In 2015, median household income rose 5.2% when adjusted for inflation from 2014. But all the income gains, the Census data show, came in cities and suburbs and none flowed to rural areas.
Markets stage another big move–downwards this time–on today’s bad news on oil surplus
Volatility is back. Although there’s been a “reason” for each move of the past three sessions, I think what we’re seeing is a return of nervousness on a realization that bonds and stocks are expensive right now and therefore risky since traders and investors really don’t know which way news is going to break on key factors such as economic growth, central bank stimulus, and Federal Reserve interest rates.
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