Ahead of tomorrow’s interest rate announcement from the Federal Reserve, 10-year Treasury yields remain stuck just below 2.90%. The bond market just can’t seem to admit that the Fed might raise interest rates three times in 2018–let alone a potential four times–although I think it is gradually working its way toward that consensus.
The Washington Post reports tonight that President Donald Trump is preparing to impose a package of $60 billion in annual tariffs against Chinese products. The tariff package, which Trump plans to unveil by Friday, was confirmed to the Washington Post by four senior administration officials.
Turning around a portfolio can take a frustratingly long time. The Jubak’s Picks portfolio has had a performance problem since 2014. But I think I’ve finally put a recovery in place. The total return on the portfolio was 13.1% in 2017. That still badly lagged the 21.7% total return on the Standard & Poor’s 500. But it’s promising–considering that the portfolio finished the year 27.2% in cash. (Which itself was better than the 37% cash at the end of 2016.)
As of 11:30 a.m. New York time this morning, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock index was down 1.15%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 1.02%. And the technology heavy NASDAQ was lower by 1.84%. Much of the talk this morning has centered on news from Facebook (FB) and Apple (AAPL) this weekend as the reason for the drop. I think that explanation is misleading
Lots and lots of big macro potentially market moving news this week. Events range from the first 2018 meeting of Group of 20 finance ministers to an almost certain interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve to the effective date for U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum
With newly appointed chief White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow acting as a front man, Republicans in Congress are talking about another round of tax cuts to follow on the December Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. What Kudlow has called “Phase Two” would include making the individual tax cuts due to expire in 2025 permanent and reducing the capital gains tax rate.
In my daily trawling through the market I come upon lots of tidbits of knowledge that I think are important to investors but that don’t justify a full post. I’ve decided to start compiling these notes here each day in a kind of running mini blog that I’m calling Notes You Need. A representative items resembles this from today: “10:20: Wall Street analysts rushed to raise their target prices for Adobe Systems (ADBE) after the company beat earnings and revenue estimates yesterday. The stock closed yesterday at $218.87 and was up 3.05% at $225.55 at the close today. BMO Capital Markets raised its target price to $260 a share from $205. Stifel took its target to $250 from $230.”
The U.S. stock market decided that today’s economic reports showed a glass half full. Interpretations pointing in the other direction, however, were easy enough to make so the end result wasn’t so much a wave of optimism lifting markets strongly higher as a sigh of relief. For the day the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index was up 0.17%
If you spend a significant part of your day staring at your computer to watch the markets, you know that, perplexingly, the traditional safe havens for mitigating portfolio risk haven’t been working very well. Now Goldman Sachs has put its computers and data crunchers to work and has reached the same conclusion as the anecdotal evidence suggested. Goldman has tagged this a period of “diversification desperation.”
The Food and Drug Administration today announced that its Arthritis Advisory Committee will meet on April 23 to discuss the application by Incyte (INCY) and Eli Lilly (LLY) for approval of baricitinib for the treatment of adult patients with moderately to severely active rheumatoid arthritis
Initial claims for unemployment for the week ended March 10 fell by by 4,000 to 226,000. That was in-line with projections from economists surveyed by Briefing.com. This is the 158th consecutive week that new claims for unemployment have been below 300,000. The less volatile 4-week moving average slipped by 750 to 221,500.
Today the White House announced  that President Donald Trump has picked Larry Kudlow to replace Gary Cohn as director of the White House National Economic Council. Kudlow worked as an economic advisor to President Reagan where he was a dedicated believer in supply-side economic policies, and he is known as an advocate of expanding global trade. I believe Kudlow’s appointment to the job of the administration’s top economic adviser just about assures that the President will announce a big package of tariffs (and maybe other measures) aimed at China within the next week or two. Such a package would certainly increase the chances of a trade war between the United States and China.
