So long to 6% earnings growth for 2019–how about 1%?
Over the weekend I wrote about the possibility of an earnings recession in 2019. And I noted that the Wall Street analyst consensus for the year was pointing toward 6% growth in earnings for the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500, after a negative growth rate...
Want to hedge stocks? Step #1 buy bonds! Step #2?
Investors and traders looking to hedge against the risk that U.S. stocks will take a tumble (or worse) are rushing to buy bonds. Let week another $490 million flowed in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.) That brought the inflow for 2019 to date as of...
China’s stock markets re-open to dose of negative news
Welcome back! The Shanghai and other Chinese stock markets re-opened today after the Spring Festival/Lunar New Year holiday. And investors and traders were greeted with a dose of bad news. First, according to the official China Daily, China's economic growth rate will...
Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week ahead expect…
... investors to get more and more nervous as the clock ticks down to a Friday deadline for avoiding another government shutdown. And although Friday, February 15, is the day that temporary government funding runs out for 9 federal departments and associated agencies...
Trick or trend: Wall Street minds turn to the history of earnings recessions
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Saturday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. In the last...
China trade talks outcome uncertain–but market reaction even more difficult to read
Today, a day when the U.S. financial markets seem to be in a mood to worry about China, is a good time to look at the likeliest outcomes of the U.S.-China trade talks and the likely market reaction to those outcomes. The clock is ticking on the Trump administration's...
Earnings season draws to a close–with another (slight) warning
As of this morning, more than 75% of the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index have reported fourth quarter earnings. As per usual, the bulk of companies have beaten Wall Street earnings estimates. (This is just a game that Wall Street and CEOs play.)...
China when? worries financial markets
President Donald Trump has made it clear--repeatedly--that there won't be an agreement to end the U.S.-China trade war until he has met with China's President Xi Jinping. And that's got the market worried. Because the Trump administration's deadline for raising...
S&P 500: Testing, testing at 2742
So far this is a normal pause. Stocks frequently pause, pull back, move up again, pull back again when they confront a major resistance level. So it's not surprising that the Standard & Poor's 500 took a breather today after the index closed at 2731 yesterday...
Adding Emerson Electric to my Jubak Picks Portfolio
One of my mother's favorite sayings was "It's an ill wind that blows nobody any good." (Lest anyone get the erroneous impression that my mother was an optimist, I'd note that another of her favorites was "Every silver lining has a cloud.") Which--the ill wind...
Forget recession worries–the big danger now is in the credit cycle
The Federal Reserve and the world's other central banks face an impossible choice. On the one hand, they could have tighten the money supply by raising interest rates or other means. That would have risked sending economies near recession into recession--Germany, for...Download Jim’s eBook for Free
