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Selling American Airlines shares–the stock has made a round trip from my buy
On January 22, 2025, my position in American Airlines (AAL) was up 46% from my October 22, 2024 buy-in my Jubak Picks Portfolio. As of the close on March 12, however, the stock is down 34% for 2025. And my portfolio position is down 16%. I don’t see any sign of a recovery in airline sector growth or revenue wth the economy clearly slowing. In fact all the major U.S. carriers have recently cut guidance for 2025. So on March 13, I will be selling American Airlines out o my Jubak Picks Portfolio.
I think we can call this a “trade war”–tariffs break out all over
The Trump Administration raised tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports to 25% on Wednesday. And the European Union and Canada hit back Wednesday with tariffs of their own on billions of dollars’ worth of U.S. products.
Inflation comes in a bit better than expected–but not enough to lead to an interest rate cut or to push stocks decisively higher
This morning’s report on Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation came in better than expected by economists. On a monthly basis, the all-items or headline inflation rate rose just 0.2% last month. That’s lower than economists’ expectations and a drop from a large 0.5% increase in January. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, also rose just 0.2% on a monthly basis, down from a 0.4% rise in January. Core prices were up 3.1% for the year, an improvement from the prior month. Headline or all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose at a 2.8% annual rate in February. Three reasons not to feel astoundingly optimistic about these numbers.
50% steel tariffs on Canada off, 25% tariffs still on for March 12
After threatening to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada, President Donald Trump “back-tracked” and said he would not double those tariffs, but instead 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum would take effect on Canada and other nations on Wednesday, March 12.
Musk says DOGE will need another year–can the markets and the economy take that much chaos Especially if the target is Social Security?
In an interview on FOX Business on Monday Elon Musk said the U.S. DOGE Service is confident it will reach its goal of cutting $1 trillion in federal spending. And that he expected DOGE’s work will stretch another year. The next big target will be what he claims is massive fraud in Social Security.
It’s not the R word that has stocks plunging–it’s that S word
We haven’t had a really severe bout of stagflation since the late 1970s and early 1980s–but suddenly that scenario of very slow growth with high unemployment but with high inflation too that prevents the Federal Reserve from just cutting interest rates get growth back on track is back on Wall Street’s worry list.
And really serious stagflation would be something to worry about. In 1980–just before the Federal Reserve created a deep recession and bear market to break the back of stagflation–inflation hit almost 14.5 and unemployment reached 7.5%
Even the best retail stocks aren’t beating fears of a slowdown: I’m selling Walmart and Costco
With fears of an economic slowdown punishing the market today, I think it’s more than time to sell my Jubak Picks positions in Walmart (WMT) and Costco Wholesale (Cost) even though they are the two best companies in the retail sector. As of noon New York time today Walmart is down another 3.57% and Costco has dropped 2.64%. The Standard & Poor’s 500 is lower by 2.21% and the NASDAQ Composite is off 3.55%.
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
the big question for the week is “Will Congressional Republicans pass something that keeps the government funded after the March 14 deadline. My opinion? House Republicans will unite to give the White House what it wants. In the Senate the way forward is more complicated.
Friday’s trade makes it clear what market fears: an economic slowdown
Just minutes after a slide that drove the S&P 500 down over 1%, the gauge staged an “oversold bounce” after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told a New York audience that the economy is fine. “Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the US economy continues to be in a good place,” Powell said at an event Friday in New York hosted by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. “We do not need to be in a hurry, and are well positioned to wait for greater clarity.”
Apple delays Siri AI, falls further behind in AI market
Apple (AAPL) has confirmed that it’s delaying the release of a new AI Siri digital assistant. The company now expects to roll out the software sometime “in the coming year.” The effort will give Siri “more awareness of your personal context, as well as the ability to take action for you within and across your apps,” the iPhone maker said in a statement. “It’s going to take us longer than we thought to deliver on these features.” Apple’s struggles to finish the new AI capability for Siri has been a one secret for the last month or so after Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman reported on the delay. The Siri AI features were first touted in June 2024 at the company’s Worldwide Developers Conference. When Apple announced the features at WWDC, it didn’t provide an arrival date for the Siri upgrade, Gurman reported. Within the company, though, the plan was to include the new technology in iOS 18.4, which comes out in April.
“Meaningless” job numbers look okay this morning
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February, and the unemployment rate rose just a tad to 4.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics today
Would I prefer a decent jobs report like this–the labor market, the report said, remains solid–to a poke in the eye with a sharp stick–or big negative number? Certainly. I’m not rooting for a recession. Too much pain for too many people–especially for those of us who don’t have much to begin with. But the report is, basically, meaningless if you want to know where the economy or jobs market is now or even where it was on February 28.
Developing global weather pattern is good news on hurricanes but bad on wildfires; and maybe good for buying coffee futures
After the last year, it’s clear that investors DO need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows to avoid unpleasant climate shocks to their portfolios. For the next year, the likely forecast includes a less active hurricane season–good news for the U.S. Southeast–but higher temperatures for much of the globe–bad news for California and the U.S. West. And bad news for price volatility in agricultural commodities.
Is Wall Street finally getting tired of the tariff games?
So first stocks sold off after President Donald Trump announced 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada. Then stocks rallied when the White House said tariffs on auto imports from Mexico and Canada would be postponed by a month. Today, the tariff news is that higher duties on agricultural products imported from Mexico would be postponed fora month. But at the close today the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index was down 1.58% and the NASDAQ Composite was off 2.11%. The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index, the VIX “fear index,” was up 15.27% to 25.27. There was so much going on in the financial markets today that it’s impossible to say how much of today’s decline was due to a growing realization that delays of a month are essentially insufficient to reorder supply chains constructed by years or decades of investment.
Selling Las Vegas Sands out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio
The reason to own shares of Las VEGAS sANDS (LVS0 is the strength of its position in the gaming market in Macao, and developments that look to add faster revenue growth in that market in the relative near future. Morningstar calculates that the stock is currently trading at about 20% below fair value.
The reason to sell Las Vegas Sands is that the trade war between China and the United States is likely to get worse before it gets better. And Las Vegas Sands’ operations in Macao are totally exposed to changes in policy and regulations from the Chinese government.
Russia looks to have finally cut production to meet OPEC+ quota–just as budget pressures grow
Russia’s oil-tax revenue in February slumped by almost a quarter year-on-year, suggesting producers have reined in output to meet the country’s OPEC+ quota.
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