December 12, 2023 | ASML, Daily JAM, Special Reports, Stock Alerts, Top 50 Stocks |
GREATER Growth Stock Pick #7: ASML Holding (ASML). ASML Holding is priced like a stock that owns 90% of the market for cutting edge photo lithography chip-making equipment. I want to own this stock as one of my 10 GREATER Growth Stocks, but I worry about paying that kind of multiple (35 times trading 12-month earnings per share), especially ahead of what is shaping up as a challenging 2024 for chip equipment makers in general and ASML in particular. But 2025 looks like a great year for chip equipment makers in general and ASML in particular. So timing is the key issue on buying this one.
December 12, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
If you follow the headline numbers (what’s known as All Urban Consumers) for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), you’d say, “See inflation continues to fall; the Federal Reserve will cut rates quickly in 2024.” But you’d be following the wrong CPI number.
December 11, 2023 | Daily JAM, DHR, Jubak Picks, Special Reports |
GREATER Growth Stock Pick #6: Danaher (DHR). Danaher is a smart (that’s key) serial acquirer–and asset divester–in the life sciences space. And that makes this stock very interesting in an environment where small, young life sciences companies might be looking for help/rescue/acquisition because they can’t raise capital in a tough part of the credit cycle. I like Danaher now, as well, because the stock looks to have just about completed its re-rating after a spike in sales during the Covid pandemic led to over enthusiasm about the stock.
December 11, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
China slipped back into deflation in October, according to government data released over the weekend. China had shown a recovery from August deflation in September readings, but that recovery now looks temporary. As worrying as the deflation tag itself is the cause: week domestic demand.
December 9, 2023 | Daily JAM |
Maybe. Must maybe. All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve meeting on December 13.
December 8, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The U.S. economy added 199,000 jobs in November, the Labor Department reported today, Friday, November 8. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.7% from 3.9% in October That surprised economists who had expected the unemployment rate to hold steady. The bond market reacted in the morning hours after the report was released at 8:30 a.m. New York time by selling Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year Treasury gained 8 basis points to 4.233% as of 10 a.m. in New York as bond prices fell. The yield on the two-year Treasury jumped 78 basis points to 4.669%.
December 7, 2023 | Daily JAM |
Ever since reports showed the U.S. economy grew at a 5.2% annualized rate in the third quarter, economists have been telling investors to expect lower growth in the fourth quarter. Some of that higher growth in the third quarter, they argued, was pulled from the fourth quarter.
Today’s report from the Commerce Department showing a 0.4% drop in wholesale inventories in October supports the economists’ argument.
December 7, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
It’s probably not enough to push the Federal Reserve to cut rates on the schedule that Wall Street is hoping for –with the first cut in March 2024–but it does make a “no increase in interest rates” result from the December 13 Fed meeting even more likely.
December 6, 2023 | ALB, Daily JAM, GOLD, Jubak Picks, MSFT, NVDA, Special Reports, Stock Alerts, Top 50 Stocks, TSM |
Here are the first 8 picks for my GREATER Growth Stocks Special Report. More on the way.
December 5, 2023 | Daily JAM |
Moody’s Investors Service cut its outlook for Chinese sovereign bonds to negative from stable today, December 5. The rating company kept tws long-term rating on China’s government bonds at A1. You don’t have to be a forensic accountant to see what worries Moody’s.
December 5, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
In October job openings in the U.S. economy fell to the lowest level since early 2021. I’m sure that make the Federal Reserve happy ahead of its December 13 meeting on interest rates. The Fed has been looking for sign that the labor market is cooling off. And it’s getting plenty of them recently. (And will probably get more on Thursday and Friday when the government reports new claims for unemployment and the jobs situation for November.) The question, for those few of us who still see a recession in 2024 as a danger, is When is slower too slow? A slowing labor market means fewer gains to average weekly earnings. Which translates into either less consumer spending, or consumer spending fueled by more debt.
December 4, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
I’m hearing some chatter that says bond traders and analysts are stepping aside from the bond rally. Or are planning to do so. Their argument is that the move has been too far, too fast. Specifically, I’ve heard talk of selling if the yield on the 10-year Treasury hits 4.00%. On Friday, the yield was 4.20%. So I’d be watching to see if anything like a bond rally pause or reversal materializes during the days ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on December 13
