Daily JAM
Please watch my new YouTube video: Quick Pick Apple
Today’s Quick Pick is Apple (AAPL). This is a short term buy or, if you own it, a “get ready to sell.” Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference happens in early May, and the stock usually gets a bounce from new product and technology announcements. This year we’re likely to hear more on AI. Apple’s stock hasn’t performed all that well lately, and I don’t want to hold the stock after the expected pop from the conference and new product releases in the fall. I worry about the long term choices the company is making. Apple has decided not to offer a low-price, affordable introductory iPhone as a gateway to their suite of products. They’ve effectively ceded the lower end of the market to other players–especially in China. They’ve also just announced that the AI add-ons to Siri they promised have been delayed and it’s unclear when they’ll be available. Apple is lagging in AI as other companies race ahead. We can expect disappointing sales in December–particularly out of China. I don’t want to hold on to the stock at the end of the year and I’m looking to sell on a bounce after the conference and new product launches in September.
That didn’t take long–snap-back rally arrives
A day after major indexes moved into a correction, stocks bounced back like, well, like a basketball after a Lebron James dunk, like a sling shock at Halloween, like, well, like stocks after hitting over-sold technical levels. The gains in stocks were, how you say, broad-based. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed up 2.1%. The NADAQ Composite added 2.6% and the NASDAQ 100 rose 2.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.7%. The MSCI World Index rose 1.8%. Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index climbed 2.8%. The Russell 2000 small cap index was up 2.5%.
A 200% tariff on champagne? Here’s my solution to the impending crisis
President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 200% tariff on wine, champagne and other alcoholic beverages from France and elsewhere in the European Union, if Brussels follows through with a tariff on American whiskey exports, a measure aimed at retaliating against Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs that went into effect on Wednesday. What to do? This is serious. Life without champagne! Sacre bleu! We need a solution.
We’re in a correction–a likely short-term snapback rally won’t change that but it will be an opportunity to add more short bets
The Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 1.4% today. That took the index into correction country with a three-week rout from its high on February 219 of more than 10%–the technical definition of a correction. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index already in a correction lost 1.9% on the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3%, bringing it 9.3% below its last record in December–and to the edge of a correction.
The 16 trading sessions it took for the S&P 500 to tumble by this magnitude from its February 19 high marks the seventh-fastest correction in records going back to 1929, according to Bloomberg. Three of the seven-fastest drawdowns of this magnitude happened under President Donald Trump–in 2018, 2020 and now.
Some technical indicators are saying that the drop has been too far, too fast. And that we could be about to see a short-term snap-back rally.
Please watch my new YouTube video: Retail flashing red
Today’s video is Retail Stocks and Recession Fears. In the past week we’ve seen a cascade of negative news from the retail sector. Macy’s announced projected comparable store sales would be “down slightly” for 2025, and Target expected flat comparable store sales for 2025. Last week, Target’s stock was down 7.4% and Best Buy fell 11.5%. I own Costco and Wal-Mart, (the best retail stocks at the moment) but I will be selling them this week. Costco, which I bought in 2022, is up 69% since I purchased it. I’ll be taking my profits and eliminating my exposure to the sector, which is a good place to be while tariffs and a volatile economy threaten retail stocks.
Selling American Airlines shares–the stock has made a round trip from my buy
On January 22, 2025, my position in American Airlines (AAL) was up 46% from my October 22, 2024 buy-in my Jubak Picks Portfolio. As of the close on March 12, however, the stock is down 34% for 2025. And my portfolio position is down 16%. I don’t see any sign of a recovery in airline sector growth or revenue wth the economy clearly slowing. In fact all the major U.S. carriers have recently cut guidance for 2025. So on March 13, I will be selling American Airlines out o my Jubak Picks Portfolio.
I think we can call this a “trade war”–tariffs break out all over
The Trump Administration raised tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports to 25% on Wednesday. And the European Union and Canada hit back Wednesday with tariffs of their own on billions of dollars’ worth of U.S. products.
Inflation comes in a bit better than expected–but not enough to lead to an interest rate cut or to push stocks decisively higher
This morning’s report on Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation came in better than expected by economists. On a monthly basis, the all-items or headline inflation rate rose just 0.2% last month. That’s lower than economists’ expectations and a drop from a large 0.5% increase in January. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, also rose just 0.2% on a monthly basis, down from a 0.4% rise in January. Core prices were up 3.1% for the year, an improvement from the prior month. Headline or all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose at a 2.8% annual rate in February. Three reasons not to feel astoundingly optimistic about these numbers.
50% steel tariffs on Canada off, 25% tariffs still on for March 12
After threatening to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada, President Donald Trump “back-tracked” and said he would not double those tariffs, but instead 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum would take effect on Canada and other nations on Wednesday, March 12.
Musk says DOGE will need another year–can the markets and the economy take that much chaos Especially if the target is Social Security?
In an interview on FOX Business on Monday Elon Musk said the U.S. DOGE Service is confident it will reach its goal of cutting $1 trillion in federal spending. And that he expected DOGE’s work will stretch another year. The next big target will be what he claims is massive fraud in Social Security.
It’s not the R word that has stocks plunging–it’s that S word
We haven’t had a really severe bout of stagflation since the late 1970s and early 1980s–but suddenly that scenario of very slow growth with high unemployment but with high inflation too that prevents the Federal Reserve from just cutting interest rates get growth back on track is back on Wall Street’s worry list.
And really serious stagflation would be something to worry about. In 1980–just before the Federal Reserve created a deep recession and bear market to break the back of stagflation–inflation hit almost 14.5 and unemployment reached 7.5%
Jim’s Stock Alerts
Download Jim’s eBook for Free
