Mid Term
Equal time for pessimists: S&P predicts huge rise in junk bond defaults
In a May 29 report Standard & Poor's has said it expects the trailing 12-month default rate for U.S. speculative-grade (that is "junk" debt rated below investment grade) corporate debt to rise to 12.5% by March 2021. The 12-month trailing default rate was 3.5% in...
Trick or Trend: Warning signs for the economy in Friday’s consumer spending report
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Saturday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. In April...
Now it’s the Fed’s Powell’s turn to push stocks lower, urge Congress to provide more coronavirus money
Yesterday, I argued that the barrage of cautionary comments from Federal Reserve officials seemed designed to talk stock prices lower and to push Congress toward a new bigger coronavirus rescue package. (Why might the Fed want to slow the current rally? The only...
Trick or trend: Benchmark dates for the economy and the pandemic for the next month or two
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Saturday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. Right now...
Fed keeps policy stable, says 0% rates as far as the eye can see
As expected the Federal Reserve left interest rates at their current level of 0%-0.25%. And there were very few changes in the central bank's language. But a few subtle shifts are worth noting, I believe. The Fed said in early April that “We have also committed to...
U.S. benchmark oil falls below $20 a barrel on largest increase ever in U.S. inventories
U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell below $20 a barrel, the lowest price since 2002, after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a huge jump of almost 20 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories. At 1:00 P.m. New York time West Texas...
Oil hits an 18-year low–worse to come as world runs out of storage
As of noon New York time, today March 30, U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell another 5.67% to $20.29 a barrel. International benchmark Brent dropped 9.83% to $22.45 a barrel. That's an 18-year low for oil. And worse is yet to come. The world has run out of...
What are the chances of a second wave of coronavirus cases in China?
One of the most hopeful signs in the fight against the global coronavirus pandemic is the decline of new cases in China after that country's draconian quarantine. As of Sunday, the country had reported a string of four days with no new domestically-sources cases. (New...
Why the economic damage from the coronavirus slowdown could last through the end of 2020
Remember way back a couple of weeks ago. In February the consensus was that the slowdown in revenue and earnings from the coronavirus pandemic would last for the first quarter of 2020. Corporate guidance reflected that view with companies such as Nvidia (NVDA) telling...
The U.S. hospital system burns while Washington fiddles
The math is very clear and extremely disturbing. The numbers certainly argue that the coronavirus has the ability to crash the U.S. healthcare system--which would leave hospitals and other healthcare facilities conducting triage among patients with serious cases of...
The bond markets are charging more for risk
The yield spread between investment-grade corporate bonds and Treasuries climbed 11 basis points on Wednesday to 183 basis points. That's the biggest spread since 2016. The spread between high-yield (junk) bonds (with credit ratings below investment grade) also ended...Jim’s Stock Alerts
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