Mid Term
The oil price that didn’t bark in the night
Sometimes it's how the market doesn't react that's important. Today the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a surprising build in U.S. crude oil inventories of 5.8 million barrels for the week ended on July 13. This comes after a big drawdown of 12.6...
Trump administration tees up next tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods
The Trump administration has released a new list of $200 billion in Chinese goods that would be subject to higher tariffs as promised in retaliation for Chinese tariffs in retaliation for earlier U.S. tariffs. The new tariffs won't go into effect until the end of...
Today the markets decide that this “trade stuff” isn’t just a negotiating ploy
Last week the market consensus was that all the moves to raise U.S. tariffs on goods from China, the European Union, Canada, and everyone else in the world--were just parts of a negotiating strategy by President Donald Trump. Certainly we weren't on the path of some...
So far markets see proposed China tariffs as just a negotiating ploy
If you're wondering why U.S. financial markets haven't moved down more strongly on news that sure sounds like the U.S. and China are headed to a trade war, you don't need to look any further than comments by Goldman Sachs Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein...
European Central Bank tries to have it both ways–which leaves nobody very happy
At today's meeting, the European Central Bank agreed to phase out its bond buying by the end of 2018 with purchases of $17.7 billion (15 billion euros) in each of the final three months of the year. (Bond buying will continue at the current rate of 30 billion euros a...
An interest rate sign of our times–3% on a CD
So there I was, minding my own business, walking down Broadway in my neighborhood, and what do I see in the window of a local bank: An offer for 3% on a five-year CD. Now this wasn't in the window of one of the megabanks that dominate this sector in New York. But it...
Emerging markets “emerging” as focus of worry over trade, strong dollar, credit crunch
If you can't tell from the cascade of negative commentary, you certainly should be able to tell from trend in share prices: emerging markets have become the focus of current worries about global trade, the effects of a strong dollar, and the potential for a credit...
Special Report on Investing in a Late Cycle Market Part 2: Sell offs in Late Cycle Markets are contagious, very contagious
The big reason to distinguish the business cycle from the credit cycle–as I did in Part 1 of this Special Report “Investing in a Late Cycle Market: Late Cycle Markets are crazy–Part 1, The problem”–is that the disruption caused by late credit cycle markets is way more contagious globally than the disruption created by late business cycle markets.
Secretary of State Pompeo demonstrates why you can never relax in this market
Just when global financial markets were ready to breathe a sign of relief at a “truce” in the U.S./China trade war, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivered a speech at the Heritage Foundation that included a promise to “track down Iranian operatives and their Hezbollah proxies operation around the world and crush them,” and presented a list of 12 demands that Iran must meet before the United States would be willing to end sanctions.
Could this change in international shipping regulations push Brent crude to $90 a barrel by 2020?
This development that could push the price of international benchmark Brent crude to $90 wasn’t on my radar screen. It should be–and it should be on yours. (Brent closed up 1.08% today to $79.28 a barrel.) Oil analysts at Morgan Stanley are arguing that changes in the kind of fuel that ocean-going vessels use will result in an additional spike in the price of oil. That’s besides whatever goes on with Iran, the Middle East, and OPEC.
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