Morning Briefing
Market goes all in on “No interest rate increase for 2019”
The market has priced in just about a zero percent change of an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve in 2019. In fact, looking out through all of 2019 and into 2020, the financial markets believe there's more chance of an interest rate cut than of a rate...
What the stock market expects, wants from the Fed this afternoon
At 2 p.m. New York time this afternoon the Federal Reserve will release a statement on the results of the meeting of its interest-rate setting Open Markets Committee. Shortly after that Fed chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference to explain the Fed's actions...
Indictment of China’s Huawei Technologies comes just days before next round in U.S.-China trade talks
The U.S. Department of Justice filed criminal charges Monday against Huawei Technologies, China's biggest technology company. The charges include an allegation that the company stole trade secrets from TMobile and that Huawei committed bank fraud by violating...
Overnight optimism at end of government shutdown gives way after New York open to disappointing earnings
Disappointing earnings from Caterpillar (CAT) and an earnings warning from Nvidia (NVDA) sent stocks down this morning, negating overnight enthusiasm in Asian markets at the end of the partial shutdown of the U.S. government. The miss from Caterpillar took those...
Even as deal is struck to end shutdown, gold soars
Gold hit a seven month high on Friday, gaining more than 1%. Spot gold briefly broke above $1300 an ounce. Gold futures climbed 1.5% to $1,298.30 an ounce. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) climbed 1.46% to $122.86 on volume 10% above the daily average. The 52-week high...
“Show me” oil market still getting no evidence of rebalance of supply/demand
Yesterday the American Petroleum Institute reported a surprise increase in U.S. crude oil inventories with a build of 6.55 million barrels for the week ending January 18. Oil analysts had expected a small draw down in crude oil inventories of 42,000 barrels. Today the...
Today it’s a battle between positive earnings and negative China trade sentiment
And, as of 12:30 p.m. New York time, negative trade sentiment was winning. The day started off with positive earnings reports--earnings beats and positive guidance--from IBM (IBM), Procter & Gamble (PG), and United Technologies (UTX). In premarket trading the...
They’re back! Fears of a slowdown in growth in 2019, that is
Remember last week? Markets were running over with optimism that growth in the U.S. and global economies continue strong in 2019, that the U.S.-China trade war was headed to a resolution, that earnings growth in reports for the fourth quarter would be above...
China’s economy continues to slow
The growth rate for China's GDP slowed to 6.4% in the fourth quarter, government data showed today. That's the slowest rate of growth since 2009. (GDP growth in the third quarter was 6.5%.) For all of 2018, China's economy grew by 6.6%. That hit government targets and...
Why I can’t put away my bear market worries: #1 Hong Kong overnight
Did you see what happened in Hong Kong overnight? The major Hong Kong Index, the Hang Seng was down slightly, dropping 0.54% on the session. But a smaller group of stocks in the Hong Kong market got slaughtered. Jiayuan International Group, Sunshine 100 China Holdings...
Trump administration economists double estimates of shutdown costs
Yesterday, President Donald Trump' economic advisers more than doubled their estimate of the damage to the U.S. economy by the shutdown of parts of the U.S. government affecting some 800,000 federal workers. The Council of Economic Advisers now calculates the shutdown...Jim’s Stock Alerts
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