Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
I expect another meandering week as the market waits on Friday’s jobs report for December and the beginning of earnings season on January 15.
Morning Briefing
Ukraine halts Russian natural gas shipments, cold weather spell looms in U.S.
And on the subject of natural gas.
On Wednesday, January 1 Russian energy company Gazprom said it was no longer sending gas across Ukraine because that country had decided it would not renew a deal allowing Russian gas to transit its territory. The action ends an energy supply route that dates back some 60 years.
About 5% of the supply of Europe’s natural gas flows through Ukraine. Despite the ongoing Russian invasion,Ukraine had continued to allow Russian oil and gas to cross its territory to serve its European neighbors. That generated revenue for Kyiv and Moscow to use in funding that war. This moves comes as the United States is facing a major cold wave that could persist into mid-January
S&P 500 finishes up 23% in 2024
Despite ending 2024 with a serie of losing sessions–four down sessions in a row–the Standard & Poor’s 500 finished up 23% in 2024.
Pending home sales climb again. Is this another negative sign for 2025?
Pending sales of U.S. homes increased for a fourth month in November to the highest level since early 2023. But why? That’s the key question. If it’s because potential buyers have given up waiting for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further, then this “good news” is another negative indicator for 2025
Buon Natale from Venice
Do you know how to tell it’s Christmas here in Venice?
Here comes Santa Claus?
Trading was thin for Christmas weeK. So time for Santa to put in an appearance on Wall Street? The Standard & Poor’s 500 finished near session highs, up O.79% to 5974. And Nvidia (NVDA), up 3.69%, and Meta Platforms (META), up 2.49%, helped drive an index of the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps up almost 1.5%.
Consumer confidence falls in December
The Conference Board’s gauge of costumer confidence decreased to 104.7, data released Monday showed. It was the first drop in the survey in three months. The reading of 104.7 was well below the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. More troubling to me, the survey’s measure of expectations hit a five-month low.
Government shutdown avoided–until March 14
From the Washington Post: President Joe Biden signed a congressional spending bill into law on Saturday morning, putting to bed the threat of a potential Christmastime government shutdown and kicking the issue for a new Congress and a new president to address in the spring.
Now posted: The full complete all-100-days version of my Special Report: Buys and sells–and other money moves for Trump’s first 100 days.
It’s taken a while–what with the distraction of another potential government shut down. BUT IT’S ALL NOW AVAILABLE. You can find the complete version under the Special Reports tab.
Is there a universe where shutting the government a week before Christmas is a good idea? And yetbthat’s what republicans seem determined to do
It’s now not just that the MAGA wing of the Republican majority in the House of Representatives along with President-elect Donald Trump and who-elected-you co-president wanna be Elon Musk have killed the Continuing Resolution (CR) negotiated with Democrats by Republican Speaker Mike Johnson. That bill would have kept the government’s doors open beyond Saturday’s funding deadline until March 14, 2025. There’s no way to put together a new package and pass it before funding for the government expires. These folks have also made it extremely likely that the shutdown will last for more than a few days. How?
As expected, the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by another 25 basis points
Today, December 18, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate for a third consecutive time.The Open Market Committee voted 11-1 to cut the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25%-4.5%. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted against the action, preferring to hold rates steady.
Trade war with Canada could be really nasty
Canada is looking at imposing taxes on major commodities it exports to the United States-—including uranium, oil and potash—if the incoming Trump Administration carries out a threat to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian exports.
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