Morning Briefing
March 3, 2025 | CRM, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, Stock Alerts |
I’m selling Salesforce (CRM) out of my Jubak’s Picks Portfolio tomorrow, March 4. The position was up 22% as of the close on March 3 from my buy on June 22, 2024.I added the stock back in June because I think companies with existing product platform that can add AI to bring value to their customers is the next stage in monetizing AI. I still think that’s true but the trend is taking a bit longer to play out than a market increasingly impatient with AI profits is willing to pay up for.If we get the sell off that certainly now looks possible, I’d be more than happy to rebuy.
February 28, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Analysts have lowered EPS estimates more than normal for Standard & Poor’s 500 companies for the first quarter, FactSet reported today. During the months of January and February, analysts lowered EPS estimates by a larger margin than average. The bottom-up EPS estimate for the first quarter decreased by 3.5% (to $60.66 from $62.89) from December 31 to February 27. Companies will begin to report first quarter earnings, which for most companies ends on March 31, in April. Analysts almost always cut their earnings estimates during the first two months of a quarter. During the past five years (20 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first two months of a quarter has been 2.6%. So it’s not the analysts are cutting estimates for the quarter ahead now that’s unusual. But instead it’s the larger than usual size of the cuts.
February 27, 2025 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Long Term, Morning Briefing, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks |
Last night, in after hours trading, shares of Nvidia (NVDA), which had closed up 3.67% in the regular session, traded down a twitch, slipping by 0.04%. Today, Thursday, February 27, the shares started off in decent shape but then sold off all afternoon, closing down 8.48%. What was so disappointing about Nvidia’s results? And what should you do about this drop?
February 27, 2025 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
After sowing confusion with remarks at Wednesday’s cabinet meeting that seemed to postpone new, higher tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico, and China to April, today President Donald Trump said 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico are on track to go into place on March 4, and said he would impose an additional 10% tax on Chinese imports.
February 26, 2025 | Daily JAM, FCX, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, Stock Alerts, Top 50 Stocks |
President Donald Trump has ordered an investigation of copper imports in what is a first step toward potential tariffs on the metal. The move launches a process that Trump previously used to put tariffs on steel and aluminium, opening a new front in his trade war. We’re at the early stages in this effort but I think a copper tariff play is a reasonable buy right now–especially since coopper demand and copper prices are forecast to climb tariffs or no tariffs. The biggest winner would be Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), the largest producer of copper in the United States. I’ll adding shares of Freeport my Jubak Picks portfolio tomorrow, Thursday, February 27.
February 25, 2025 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence fell this month by the most since August 2021. The Conference Board’s index fell 7 points in February to 98.3, marking the third straight decline, data released Tuesday showed. The figure was below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. A measure of expectations for the next six months also fell by the most in three-and-a-half years, while a gauge of present conditions declined more modestly.
February 24, 2025 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
In the first Trump Administration Apple (AAPL) avoided tariffs on its smartphones and on its Apple Watch made in China. This time around Apple may avoid the administration’s tariffs again, but the cost is a promise to spend $500 billion and hire 20,000 people in the United States over the next four years, and open a factory in Texas to make the machines that power the company’s push into artificial intelligence.
February 21, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
U.S. consumers’ expectations for long-term inflation rose to the highest rate in three decades, in February’s consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan. Consumers expect prices will climb at an annual rate of 3.5% over the next five to 10 years. The rate is the highest since 1995,
February 20, 2025 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing |
Walmart (WMT) forecast lower than expected profit for 2025. The company said it’s anticipating adjusted earnings of $2.50 to $2.60 per share, below the average projection of $2.74 a share by Wall Street analysts. As of noon New York time today Walmart shares were down 6.8% as the lower guidance outweighed strong results for the just concluded quarter. Both top and bottom lines came in higher than Wall Street expected in the retailer’s quarter and fiscal 2025. Quarterly revenue increased 5.3% year over year to $183 billion, while adjusted earnings per share were up 10% to 66 cents a share.
February 19, 2025 | Daily JAM, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GOLD, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, NEM, Perfect Five-ETFs, Volatility |
Today Goldman Sachs Group raised its year-end target for gold to $3,100 an ounce. Central banks are buying gold at a faster than expected pace and flows into gold ETFs are accelerating.
February 18, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Semiconductor chips and drugs are set to face higher duties, Trump told reporters at a news conference on Tuesday.“It’ll be 25% and higher, and it’ll go very substantially higher over the course of a year.” Asked if he had decided the rate of a threatened tariff on cars from overseas, Trump said he would “probably” announce that on 2 April, “but it’ll be in the neighborhood of 25%”. But are these “announcement’s real?
February 12, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
CPI inflation rose by more than expected in January, as prices for groceries, housing and energy all picked up. The headline, all-items Consumer Price Index rose by 3.0% in January from a year earlier, the Labor Department reported Wednesday morning. That’s slightly above the 2.9% annual rate reported in December. The core index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was also higher, showing a 3.3% annual rate.
