Morning Briefing
March 4, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
The NASDAQ Composite closed the day down 2.11% on March 4. That was a third straight day of losses including the 2.7% drop on Wednesday. At its low for the day–12,555.1 at 1:59 p.m.–the index briefly dipped into correction territory with a 10.92% loss from the February 12 high of 14,095.47. A slight improvement at the end of the day to 12,723.47 left the index down 9.93% from the February high, right at the brink of correction territory. The drop to the close at 12723.47 erased all of the indexes gains for 2021 to date.
March 4, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Back on February 23, I wrote a post with the headline “Everything is down today” and added that while I wasn’t buying everything on the dip I was doing some selective nibbling. Today’s market looks almost exactly the same–if a bit more so because this drop is coming after recent weakness.
March 3, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
At 3:30 p.m. New York time today, March 3, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was 1.47%. That’s up from yesterday’s 1.42%. So much for any thoughts that yesterday’s rally in bonds and drop in yields might be the beginning of a larger move.
March 2, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Stocks are neither moving ahead to follow up on yesterday’s big gains. Nor selling off under the wave of profit taking. Given the news calendar on Thursday and Friday that’s about what I’d expect. We’re due for a bushel of potentially market-moving news on those two days. And I’d be surprised if anyone wants to get too far ahead of those announcements.
March 1, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
As of 2 p.m. New York Time today, March 1, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 2.57% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was higher by 2.30%. The NASDAQ Composite had climbed 2.80% and the NASDAQ 100 had gained 2.83%. The small cap Russell 2000 had added 3.30% and the iShares 2000 MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) was up 2.90%. Yep, it didn’t take much of an improvement in the Treasury market to send investors and traders screaming back into stocks.
February 28, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Last week’s bond market plunge and yield increase priced in an earlier move on interest rates by the Federal Reserve. According to Bloomberg, markets now see a Federal Reserve interest rate hike by March 2023. At the beginning of February the bond market had priced in an initial interest rate increase in mid-2023.
February 25, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Yields on U.S. Treasuries hit 1.61% early today before pulling back slightly to 1.51% as of 3 p.m. New York time. It’s not just the rise in yields or even the magnitude of the increase that has so disconcerted the bond market today, February 25. It’s the speed of the move. As of 3 p.m., the bond market was looking at a 14 basis point increase in yields just today. That’s a huge move for the normally slow-moving bond market.
February 23, 2021 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, Top 50 Stocks, Volatility |
Yesterday tech tumbled but utilities, commodities like copper and even gold, and many “vaccine recovery” plays gained. Today almost everything is down.
Which to me is a sign that this now 6-day downturn is getting closer to an end. Right now, as of 1:30 a.m. in New York the NASDAQ is off another 2.32%. The brings the drop from the mid-february high to 6%. A little more than half way to a 10% correction. I don’t think we’re at the bottom yet. But I am looking for growth stories–which is not the same as “momentum growth stocks”–where the selling has created an opportunity.
February 22, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
As of the close in New York today, February 22, the yield on the 10-year Treasury had climbed another 3 basis points to 1.37%. Commodities that can act as inflation hedges were up as well. Copper showed no signs of ending its climb, rising 4.17% today to $8909 a ton on the London Metal Exchange today
February 19, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
At the close today the Standard & Poor’s 500 was down 0.19%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended dead even. The NASDAQ Composite “soared” 0.07%. It wasn’t until you looked at the Russell 2000 small cap index that you saw any signs of what a wild day it was. That index, so economically sensitive these days, finished ahead 2.04%. Don’t look to the usual suspects if you’re seeking big winners today.
February 18, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Initial claims for unemployment in official state unemployment programs rose for the week ended February 13 to 861,000, the Department of Labor reported this morning. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected 773,000. Revisions took the prior week’s initial claims to 848,000 from an initial 793,000. The initial figures had shown initial claims dropping. The revised figures represented a 33,000 increase week to week.
February 16, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Natural gas at the OneOK Gas Transportation hub in Oklahoma traded at $4.19 per contract a week ago. Today, thanks to a polar blast that has produced sub-zero temperatures across a huge swatch from Texas to Canada, two contracts today traded at $999 per million British thermal units. At the Henry Hub terminal in Louisiana, the benchmark for natural gas futures in New York, gas futures traded at a high of $30 today. A week ago the futures traded at just $3.24 per million BTUs. The cold has shut down production in some fields and through some pipelines (where liquids in pipes and at wells has frozen forcing shutdowns) while sending demand soaring for natural gas to heat homes and generate electricity. Production of natural gas in the Lower 48 states has plunged to a three year low.
