Short Term
February 1, 2022 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
Yesterday stocks reversed direction big time. After days of pounding lower the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 1.89% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.17% The NASDAQ Composite climbed 3.41% and the NASDAQ 100 tacked on 3.29%. Even the small cap Russell 2000 gained 3.05%. On those numbers I ‘d say the days action looks like a big oversold bounce off of a truly terrible January. But dig a little deeper and it looks like something else–or maybe additional somethings–was going on.
January 30, 2022 | AMZN, Daily JAM, FB, GOOG, Short Term, Top 50 Stocks, You Might Have Missed |
I’m looking for a mixed bag of BIG TECH earnings from Alphabet (GOOG), Meta Platforms (FB), and Amazon (AMZN). Unless Meta Platforms and Amazon can deliver big earnings surprises, I don’t think these reports will lift the market appreciably. And the week will end with the January jobs report.
January 25, 2022 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
At the moment, Wall Street is memorized by tomorrow’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate setting body, the Open Market Committee. The meeting is almost certain to result in no action on interest rates or Treasury purchases or balance sheet draw downs. The Fed likes to announce policy actions at meetings replete with economic updates (the Dot Plot) and press setups. Those are missing at this meeting and present for the March 16 meeting. That’s the date when we’re likely to see the Fed actually do something. So what happens when the Fed does nothing and says nothing?
January 24, 2022 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
According to stock market history, stock investors should be “happy” that the Federal Reserve is about to start raising interest rates. Stocks have risen at an average annualized rate of 9% during the 12 Federal Reserve interest rate increase cycles since the 1950s and delivered positive returns in 11 of those instances, Keith Lerner, Truist’s co-chief investment officer told Bloomberg. There’s one exception. The 1972-1974 period, which coincided with the 1973-1975 recession. Which may, unfortunately, be more applicable to the current period than all those other historical examples.
January 24, 2022 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Volatility |
When I posted over the weekend that coming increase in interest rates from the Federal Reserve and the possibility of soaring energy prices from a Russia/Ukraine conflict and the ensuring sanctions by Western allies against Russia constituted a double whammy on emerging market assets and developing economies. A strong dollar and higher U.S. interest rates would exacerbate a looming debt crisis (yes, yet again) in the developing world, and higher oil and natural gas prices (and tighter supplies) would hit developing economies really really hard. I said then that I’d be looking for hedges to insure against and profit from the downside risk in emerging market assets. Well, things have moved faster than I expected
January 23, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
Emerging markets and developing economies are looking at two very big and relatively near-term threats. First, and we know this one is coming, interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve could trigger a new debt crisis. Developing country debt repayments to creditors are already running at their highest level in two decades–even before higher U.S. interest rate and a strong dollar increase the burden on emerging markets and currencies.
January 21, 2022 | COP, Daily JAM, EQNR, Jubak Picks, LNG, PXD, Short Term, Volatility |
On Saturday, January 15, in my “Saturday Night Quarterback” post wrote that conflict (a more comprehensive term than “war) between Russia and Ukraine remained a low probability event–but that the probability wasn’t zero and the the odds of conflict had increased in the past month. What’s happened since then? The odds of conflict have climbed
January 19, 2022 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed down 1.15% on Wednesday, January 19. That marked the first close for the index in correction territory since March. (The common definition of a correction is a drop of 10% or more.) The technology-heavy index is down 8.3% so far in 2022 closing t 14,340.25 on Wednesday. That’s 10.69% below the November 19 record high.
January 18, 2022 | AMAT, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Millennial, MSFT, Short Term, Special Reports, Top 50 Stocks, TSM |
In the first section of this Special Report: When will the selling stop? When to buy What to buy” posted back on January 11, I said that I’d look to buy in tiers. And thus stagger my buying to take account of any earnings season selling and any volatility around the Fed’s January 26 meeting. In the first tier, I said, back on January 11, I said I’d look for former momentum and earnings growth favorites, especially in the technology sector, that had taken big hits in the selling from the November 19 high. The three first tier buys were Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and and the first three buys back on January 11 were Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, and Adobe (ADBE). I said I’d name my second tier picks after bank earnings. Which means today.
January 18, 2022 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Volatility |
As of 11:15 a.m., the market is tumbling and the VIX “Fear Index” is up 15.79% to 22.22. My January 26 VIX Call Options with a strike at 20 (VIXW220126C00020000) have soared 61.11% to sell at $290 a contract. With the expiration date of January 26 approaching I’m selling this position today.
January 15, 2022 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
In the week ahead expect the financial markets to pay more attention to the crisis unfolding in Ukraine. War between Russian and Ukrainian forces on Ukrainian soil remains a low probability event in my opinion but it odds aren’t nearly as low as they were a month ago.
January 10, 2022 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My eighty-six YouTube video “Bitcoin and Kazakhstan” went up today.
