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Global trade isn’t waiting for President Trump–it’s slowing down NOW

In his campaign Donald Trump promised to kill the Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal and renegotiate NAFTA. Countries like China and Mexico faced the prospect of crippling tariffs on their goods. That left international economists deeply worried about a slowdown in global trade, a slowdown that might be sufficient to produce a global recession. Well, don’t worry. Even before Trump won the November 8 election globe trade had started to slow.

Why the post-Brexit crisis isn’t just like the others

Any post-Brexit crisis will will be a slow motion crisis driven by a gradual slowdown in economic growth in the United Kingdom, the European Union, Japan, China and the United States that results in a dimming of prospects for corporate earnings growth. The crisis will be interrupted periodically, as it has been in the last two days, by the hope that this time central banks will be able to intervene and get this or that economy growing again

Going short Mexico on the prospect of a Trump victory in November looks like it’s already a crowded trade; so how about going long Mexico right after Trump gets his convention bump in July?

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