Goldman Sachs has turned positive on gold for the first time in five years. Â “Our commodities team believes that the dislocation between the gold prices and U.S. rates is here to say,” Goldman Sachs says. Drivers for higher gold prices include signs of an uptick in inflation and increased risk in equity markets.
When I last rebalanced my Perfect 5 Active Passive ETF Portfolio on January 16, I said that I’d rebalance it again on July 1–unless events intervened to force an unscheduled rebalancing. Well, events have indeed intervened. The S&P 500 index closed within a handful of points of the February 8 low today, March 23. If the index and the U.S. stock markets were only going to drop another few points and then hold (or even bounce on that low), I wouldn’t feel the need to rebalance. But there’s a good chance the market will fail its test of the February 8 low.
Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin gave the markets a green light to push the U.S. dollar lower in remarks at Davos. Currency traders, already on board the lower-dollar train, didn’t waste time before pushing the throttle. The Dollar Spot Index (DXY) is down 0.86% as of noon New York time to 89.347. Traders have been eyeing the 90 level on the index to see whether support would hold at this level or if the index would break below 90 and set up a move lower.
Gold held by ETFs that invest in the yellow metal rose to 2,250 metric tons on January 22, according to Bloomberg. That’s the highest level of gold held by ETFs since May 2013. After turning in its best year since 2010 in 2017, gold has continued to climb in 2018
For my third pick for my new Perfect 5 ETF Active Passive Portfolio I looked to fill the Commodities slot in the portfolio with an ETF that would provide a hedge for the portfolio if the market tumbled but that would also produce a positive return if the market didn’t fall but other recent trends continued. The pick that achieves those two goals is the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD)
