
Watch my YouTube video: The rally narrows–or does it?
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My seventieth YouTube video “The rally narrows–or does it?” went up today.
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My seventieth YouTube video “The rally narrows–or does it?” went up today.
In my YouTube video posted today I dismissed (pretty much) my worry that this rally was getting narrower and therefore closer to a nasty end. Nvidia (NVDA), up 8.85% at the close ) I noted had dragged a few chip stocks with it after the company reported a significant earnings beat and increase in guidance yesterday. For the day Qualcomm (QCOM) was up 1.63% and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) ahead 1.86%. But stocks as a whole didn’t join in and some recent bellwether stocks actually retreated with Coca-Cola (KO) off 0.96%, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) down 1.87%, and Disney (DIS) lower by 1.11%. Not good. What you’d like to see as more stocks join in–the rally gets broader–as prices go up if you’re looking for evidence that a rally might continue for a while. But, I noted in my video, not all is lost. Big tech stocks, which have largely been left on the sidelines in the rally, were up strongly today wit Amazon (AMZN) gaining 3.78% and Apple (AAPL) higher by 3.05%. If this group starts to participate the rally would be likely to have another leg. However, that’s not my only worry about this rally. I’m seeing evidence that the gains being racked up by stocks such as Nvidia, Qualcomm, and Apple are based on increasing vague speculation about trends that are way, way off in the future.
It’s BIG TECH earnings week with earnings from Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Facebook (FB) and Amazon (AMZN). Facebook kicks off earnings from this big tech group on Monday, October 25, after the close. Alphabet and Microsoft follow on Tuesday, October 26, after the close of trading with Amazon and Apple on Thursday October er 27 after the close. The stakes are high for these companies and their stocks and for the entire stock market.These five stocks account for almost 23% of the capitalization of the entire Standard & Poor’s 500. And the technology sector makes up 33% of the indexTo an extraordinary degree as goes the technology sector, so goes the market as a whole right now. And as these five stocks go, so does technology.
I expect a big tech sector reaction to Apple’s (AAPL) new product event on Monday. This is Apple’s second product event, following on the earlier iPhone 13 presentation. With chip stocks in particular and tech stocks in general–including Apple–looking for a direction–up or down–this event will shape sentiment on the sector–at least for a few days.
Today Bloomberg reported, based on conversations with unnamed sources, that Apple (AAPL) is likely to slash its projected iPhone 13 production targets for 2021 by as many as 10 million units because of prolonger shortages of the chips used in its newest smartphone model.
The Apple September 17 Call Options with a strike of $150 in my Volatility Portfolio climbed another 23.3% today. The options looks to be moving up as traders position themselves for a bump in Apple after the company’s next new product day–speculation has the date for the announcement of a nee iPhone as September 14 with pre-orders to start on September 17. The announcement is likely to be big news and will probably drive the stock higher. For the September 17 Call Options, however, the date is something of a double-edged sword since a September 14 announcement–a big positive–runs right into the time decay of the options since them expire on September 17.
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My forty-fourth YouTube video “Amazon miss is a big deal…for all stocks” went up today.
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My fortieth YouTube video “3 picks for the fall tech rotation”-went up today.
I got another 50% pop (aso f 3:30 p.m. New York time) today in the price of the Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) September 17, 2021 Call Options with a strike price of $92.50 (AMD210917C0009250). I’m going to take my profits here. With the end of earnings season in the next two weeks, I think the risk/reward ratio for holding stocks is shifting toward risk. And I’d rather be more in cash rather than less as we head into what I see as a volatile fall.
As of 12:15 p.m. the Standard & Poor’s 500 was down .01% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was lower by 0.75%. Tech stocks were down much more with the NASDAQ Composite off 1.85% and the NASDAQ 100 lower by 1.82%. The tech companies due to report earnings today after the close were all down. Apple (AAPL) was lower by 1.68%. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) had dropped 2.01%. And Microsoft (MSFT() was off 1.66%.
I hope it’s no surprise to you–I’ve been yammering away on this topic for the last two weeks after all–but next week is a big week for earnings from bellwether tech companies. The market reaction to those earnings will determine whether the current earnings based rally goes on for a while or if, instead, we get a sell on the news retreat. Tuesday, April 27, is the first big day with Apple (AAPL), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) all reporting.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed up 0.20% today, July 22. The Dow Jones Industrial Average squeezed out a 0.07% gain. But if you were looking for bigger upside moves, turn your eyes to the technology sector.