May 29, 2022 | Daily JAM, Weekend JAM |
I’m looking for a test of the new “Fed Call” theory.
A few weeks ago, before last week’s rally anyway, the theory starting going around that the “Fed Put” (sometimes called the “Powell Put”) was dead. The Fed Put (in place since the days when it was called the “Greenspan Put”) held that investors and traders didn’t have to worry about the dangers of a big downside move in the stock market because the Federal Reserve would ride to the rescue, flooding the financial markets with cheap money, and rescuing stocks. The new thinking, however, was that with the Fed looking to contain potentially run-away inflation, the Fed would be happy to see stocks take a substantial but not dangerous tumble because that would act to damp sentiment and restrain spending. A decline in stock prices was, for this point of view, an ally of the Fed’s policy of increasing interest rates. The question is, of course, how active the Fed would be in “encouraging” a decline in stock prices
May 23, 2022 | Daily JAM |
Looking for the bottom on this plunge or bear market (true bear in the NASDAQ and near bear market in the Standard & Poor’s 500)? Despite the pain we’re all feeling in our portfolios, I think we’ve got a way to go. I base that conclusion on both the major economic trends still ahead of us and recent stock market action.
May 17, 2022 | ALB, Daily JAM, DAL, DE, DIS, FQVLF, Long Term, MRVL, NVDA, PFE, SCCO, USB, Volatility |
In my weekend Saturday Night Quarterback I said that this week would, probably, answer the question of whether Friday’s big bounce was just a bounce, the start of a buy on the dip rally, or even a bear market rally with a bit of staying power. Two days into the week I think the market action is moving in favor of a bear market rally, one of those often quite powerful upside moves that punctuate extended bear markets.
May 4, 2020 | Daily JAM, SHAK |
Shake Shack (SHAK) reported earning of 2 cents a share today after the market close. Wall Street had expected a penny a share loss. Earnings were down from 13 cents a share in the year ago quarter. Same store sales dropped 12.8% years over year and revenue for the...
May 1, 2020 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
On Wednesday, I felt really stupid. I don't believe in this rally. I still think we're due for the bear to come roaring back. And I think the bottom in this market is still somewhere ahead. But on Wednesday April 29, I felt completely WRONG. The Standard & Poor's...
April 29, 2020 | Daily JAM |
My explanation. See if this makes sense to you. Nothing in the rear view window matters to Wall Street right now. Â Not first quarter earnings. Not economic growth or the lack thereof. Nothing in the second quarter matters either. Forecasts of a 30% or more drop in...
April 27, 2020 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Today is all about optimism--forget plunging oil prices, uncertain earnings, or a first quarter drop in GDP-- for an upturn in the economy as more states--Colorado is newest to climb on board--re-open parts of their economies. Today, at least, no one is worried,...
April 24, 2020 | Daily JAM |
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Friday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. This comes...
April 14, 2020 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
In the short run rationality is not an especially adaptive trait for an investor. Remember that. Take today's market for example. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) delivered very sobering news on how the coronavirus and the coronavirus shutdown of big hunks...
April 8, 2020 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Last night President Donald Trump told Sean Hannity on his Fox News show that his administration is planning to "reopen" the U.S. economy.  “We’re looking at the concept where we open sections of the country and we’re also looking at the concept where you open up...
April 6, 2020 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
A rally in European stocks that took the  STOXX 600 index up 3% in morning trading has extended to New York. At noon New York Time today, the Standard & Poor's 500 was up 5.65% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was ahead 5.66%. The NASDAQ Composite had gained...
March 30, 2020 | Daily JAM, Dip-O-Meter |
I did my numbers for this newest revision of the Dip-O-Meter on Sunday night so they don't reflect any of today's bounce. Nothing I'm seeing, however, convinces me that this is anything but a bounce in a bear market. For this iteration, I've added four more stocks,...
