China’s Premier Li Keqiang issued a third warning about risks to economic growth. Authorities should “add a sense of urgency” when implementing existing policies, Li told local authorities at a seminar Monday. China will study and adopt stronger economic policies as needed to support the economy, he said.
China’s official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.5 in March, the government announced on Wednesday. In this index any reading below 50 signals that the sector is in contraction. This is the first time in five months that this index has shown China’s manufacturing sector to be in contraction.
The cause is obvious: In pursuit of its Zero Covid-19 policy China has locked down major technology and factory cities to combat a surge in infections. China’s manufacturing activity contracted in March as authorities locked down major technology and factory hubs, including Shenzhen (technology), and Changchun (automobiles) and Shanghai (finance), to curb a surge in Covid cases. The bad news in the bad news? The PMI survey period ended with March 25, three days before the lockdown in Shanghai.
In the coming week I expect global stock market action to shift to China. With every other stock market looking almost too risky to invest in, and the recent advice to invest in emerging market stocks, China’s short-term story looks (relatively) very attractiveAt the opening of China’s weekend session of the country’s legislature on Saturday, China’s premier, Li Keqiang, announced that the 2020 growth target for the country’s economy was “around 5.5 percent.”
The People’s Bank of China increased its cash injections into the financial system via reverse repos to 100 billion yuan ($15.8 billion). That resulted in a net injection of 90 billion yuan. The PBOC had been draining cash in the last two weeks, which is routine following the Lunar New Year holiday.
Output from China’s manufacturing sector slowed to its weakest in almost two years in January, according to the Caixin/Markit Purchasing Managers Index. The index dropped to 49.1 in January from 50.9 in December. In the index a reading below 50 indicates that output is contracting rather than expanding. The January level is the weakest since February 2020 when much of the country was on lockdown during the first wave of the Covid-19 virus.
Today, the People’s Bank of China cut its key interest rate for the first time in almost two years to help support China’s economy. The People’s Bank of China lowered the rate at which it provides one-year loans to banks by 10 basis points. Not a huge move–100 basis points equals one percentage point–but earlier than many economists–and I–had anticipated.
Economists predict that China will add significant stimulus to its economy early in 2022. That’s just speculation at this point but it makes very solid sense given: 1. The likely slowdown in China’s economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2021. 2. A likely official growth target for 2022 of 5% or more 3. The Chinese Communist Party’s sense that ideology is no longer enough to keep China’s people fully behind Party rule and that growth of better than 5% is is a key part of the Party’s contract with the average Chinese citizen.
It’s the People’s Bank to the rescue. Today, December 7, China’s central bank announced that it would reduce the reserve requirement for most banks in China by 0.5 percentage points on December 15. The move has the effect of releasing 1.2 trillion yuan, about $188 billion dollars, in liquidity into China’s economy.
With stocks trading at record highs, I’d argue that nothing is as important as what “news” is priced in–or not. If stocks have priced in all the likely good news, then there’s much less to drive prices higher–and much more expansive possibilities for drops on disappointments. If there’s likely good news that’s not yet priced in, then stocks have potential fuel to move high. And, on the other hand, if bad news is priced in and fails to materialize, then, hey, we’re going higher from here. And if bad news isn’t priced in, then current record prices aren’t sustainable.
China’s economy grew more slowly than expected in the third quarter. Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 4.9% in the July-September quarter from a year earlier, the national statistics bureau said today, October 18. That’s a big drop from the 7.9% year over year growth in April-June. Economists had projected growth of 5.2% for the quarter.
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My fifty-eighth YouTube video “3 Picks for Iffy Growth” went up today.
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My forty-seventh YouTube video “Time to Worry About China Too” went up today.
