February 14, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
This could lead the Federal Reserve to move more cautiously on raising interest rates, say, a 25 basis point increase rather than 50 at the central bank’s March 16 meeting. If, that is, you think any piece data is likely to change the Fed’s mind. U.S. consumers lowered their expectations for future inflation in January, according to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The median expectation for inflation one year from now fell in this survey for the first time since October 2020, to 5.8% from the 7.5% current inflation rate.
February 10, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
CPI inflation climbed at a 7.5% annual rate in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning. That was above the 7.3% expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg and a big jump from the 7.0% annual rate reported in December. The inflation number just about guarantees that the Federal Reserve will raise its short-term benchmark interest rates at its March 16 meeting from the current 0% to 0.25% range.
February 10, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My ninety-ninth YouTube video “50 basis points because the Fed is scared not to” went up today.
February 9, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Tomorrow, January 10, before the market open, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce the Consumer Price Index inflation for January. Right now economists surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting an annualized increase of 7.2% in inflation. That would be a significant increase from the 7% CPI inflation rate in December and the highest inflation reading since 1982.
February 8, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My ninety-eighth YouTube video “Trend of the Week Sticker Shock” went up today.
February 5, 2022 | AMZN, Daily JAM, Top 50 Stocks |
The story to end last week was Amazon’s (AMZN) big earnings surprise on Thursday. Fourth-quarter sales increased 9.4% to $137.4 billion. Profit was $27.75 a share, aided largely by a pretax gain from the company’s investment in Rivian, which went public in November. Analysts, on average, projected revenue of $137.8 billion and earnings of $3.77 a share. (I’d note that the $22.75 a share in earnings and the projected $3.77 are not comparable due to that huge one-time gain from the Rivian IPO.) Wall Street was especially impressed by the performance of Amazon Web Services, the company’s cloud-computing division. AWS recorded sales of $17.8 billion, a 40% year-over-year increase, and operating profit of $5.29 billion. Adverting revenue for the quarter was was $9.7 billion, a 32% increase from a year earlier. Wall Street also gushed about the company’s decision to raise the price of its Amazon Prime membership by $20 a year to $139
January 28, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Nothing new here in a way. The Personal Consumption Expenditure index, the inflation measure preferred by the Federal Reserve, jumped to an annualized 5.8% rate in December. That confirms the message from the 7% annualized increase in the Consumer Price Index reported earlier for December. The increase was the highest for the PCE index since 981. The December jump in the CPI was the largest since 1982. Either way you measure it, inflation is running at levels that the signaled interest rate increases in March just about inevitble.
January 27, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My ninety-third YouTube video “What if the Fed is wrong?” went up today.
January 22, 2022 | Daily JAM |
When the Federal Reserve talks everybody listens. Although it’s extremely unlikely that the Fed will say anything of market-moving import after the Wednesday, January 26, meeting of its Open Market Committee. And it’s even less likely that the Fed will do anything. For any action and any meaningful commentary investor and traders will have to wait for the Fed’s March 16 meeting.
January 19, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
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January 12, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
As of the close in New York on Wednesday, January 12, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 0.28%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average had edged higher by 0.11%; and the NASDAQ Composite had climbed 0.23%. Even though, the Labor Department reported this morning that inflation, measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) had climbed at a 7% year over year rate in December? That the biggest jump in the annual inflation rate since June 1982. The stock market logic on this is very clear.
January 11, 2022 | Daily JAM |
The big news out of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s told Congress appearance before the Senate today (President Joe Biden has nominated him for another term as head of the Fed) was that if inflation doesn’t come down, the Fed would more aggressively raise interest rates.“If we see inflation persisting at high levels, longer than expected, if we have to raise interest rates more over time, then we will,” Powell said in a Senate Banking Committee hearing. Yep, the Fed will fight inflation. “Dog bites man.” Film at 11.
