U.S. trade deficit soars: I think that makes a U.S.-China trade deal more likely
In December the U.S. trade deficit widened to $59.8 billion from a revised $50.3 billion in November. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had projected a December deficit of $57.8 billion. The December deficit is the widest monthly deficit since October 2008 during...
China tweaks growth target lower to 6%-6.5% from last year’s 6.6%
Against the setting of the National People's Congress, which opened today, China's leaders announced that the growth target for the economy in 2019 would be 6%-6.5%, down slightly from the 2018 target of 6.6%. That dip is significant since the Chinese Communist Party...Stocks rethink China bounce
Stocks started off the day rallying on speculation that a U.S.-China trade deal was near conclusion. Market consensus was that the deal would be signed by President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping by the end of March. The United States would lift tariffs on...
I’m thinking of selling some of my China positions. But when?
As of the close on March 1, the Shanghai Composite was up 14.35% for the last month. That's super for an economy that's swimming in bad debt and facing a slowing global economy and lagging export demand. I think it's fair to say that the rally in Chinese stocks has...
China rally or speculative balloon?
As of today, February 27, the Shanghai Composite is up 13.53% in the last month. The beginning of a sustained turnaround or another speculative balloon ready to pop? It's too early to tell, unfortunately. The factors that could be inflating a speculative balloon are...
It’s official: White House extends March 1 deadline in U.S.-China trade talks.
Citing substantial progress, President Donald Trump has extended the March 1 deadline for reaching agreement on a U.S.-China trade agreement and heading off a jump to 25% in U.S. tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese exports. “The U.S. has made substantial progress in...
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
Trade. Trade. Trade. Trade will dominate the headlines and set the direction for U.S. and Chinese stocks. Stocks rose last week on any rumor of movement in the U.S.-China trade talks. Friday's rally, for example, was build on optimism generated by news that U.S. and...
It’s all about the MOUs: China trade talks strategy gets clearer; U.S. not so much
Judging from this morning's news out of the U.S. China trade talks I think I can see the Chinese strategy. Step 1: Offer the United States and its President lots of money. Today the Chinese offered to buy an additional $30 billion in U.S. corn, soy beans and other...
China trade talks resume–with a notable lack of momentum
The latest round of U.S.-China trade talks resumed today in Washington. The Trump administration's March 1 deadline continues to walk nearer--although everyone on Wall Street expects that President Trump will decide good progress has been made and will extend the...
Trick or Trend: Separating the macro movers from the macro noise
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Saturday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. Of course,...
Is there any way to handicap the results of the U.S.-China trade talks?
Pity those poor investors and traders (like you and me, for instance) trying to figure out what will happen--and when--in the U.S-China trade talks. I think it's pretty clear that President Donald Trump will decide to extend the March 1 deadline for success or 25%...Jim’s Stock Alerts
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