October 15, 2024

What You Need to Know Today:

CPI core inflation ticks upward; 25 basis point cut in November now consensus

Today, both the headline and the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in 0.1 percentage point higher than forecast for the month, with a month to month 0.2% increase in the headline index and a 0.3% rise for the core.On an annual basis, the headline index rose 2.4% in September, slightly less than the 2.5% in August. The core inflation rate, the more important number to the Federal Reserve, accelerated for the first time in one and a half years, to 3.3% from 3.2%. Weekly initial claims for unemployment also came out today, Thursday, October 10, and showed a much-bigger-than-expected increase of 258,000, against the median forecast for 230,000. Together the two reports almost cemented the odds of a 25 basis point cut in interest rates when the Fed meets on November 7.

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Special Report: Welcome to the new age of catastrophe capitalism–Part One, what capital markets will look like

Special Report: Welcome to the new age of catastrophe capitalism–Part One, what capital markets will look like

Let’s talk today about the changes that global climate change is creating in our capital markets and on the very structure of current capitalism. Part One of this Special Report will look at the nature of the changes. Part Two, later this week, will look at specific implications for your portfolio. Hurricanes Helene and Milton are the perfect case study for the coming changes in capital markets and capitalism.

read more
CPI core inflation ticks upward; 25 basis point cut in November now consensus

CPI core inflation ticks upward; 25 basis point cut in November now consensus

Today, both the headline and the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in 0.1 percentage point higher than forecast for the month, with a month to month 0.2% increase in the headline index and a 0.3% rise for the core.On an annual basis, the headline index rose 2.4% in September, slightly less than the 2.5% in August. The core inflation rate, the more important number to the Federal Reserve, accelerated for the first time in one and a half years, to 3.3% from 3.2%. Weekly initial claims for unemployment also came out today, Thursday, October 10, and showed a much-bigger-than-expected increase of 258,000, against the median forecast for 230,000. Together the two reports almost cemented the odds of a 25 basis point cut in interest rates when the Fed meets on November 7.

read more
Of course, neither candidate is taking about the soaring budget deficit

Of course, neither candidate is taking about the soaring budget deficit

The federal budget deficit swelled to $1.8 trillion in the fiscal year that ended in September, the Congressional Budget Office warned today, Tuesday, October 8. In the recently concluded fiscal 2024 year interest payments on the debt reached $950 billion, larger than the size of the Pentagon budget. As of Friday, the United States had accumulated a public debt of $35.7 trillion.

read more
Special Report: Welcome to the new age of catastrophe capitalism–Part One, what capital markets will look like

Special Report: Welcome to the new age of catastrophe capitalism–Part One, what capital markets will look like

Let’s talk today about the changes that global climate change is creating in our capital markets and on the very structure of current capitalism. Part One of this Special Report will look at the nature of the changes. Part Two, later this week, will look at specific implications for your portfolio. Hurricanes Helene and Milton are the perfect case study for the coming changes in capital markets and capitalism.

read more

Live Market Report (20 minute delay)

Special Report: Welcome to the new age of catastrophe capitalism–Part One, what capital markets will look like

Special Report: Welcome to the new age of catastrophe capitalism–Part One, what capital markets will look like

Let’s talk today about the changes that global climate change is creating in our capital markets and on the very structure of current capitalism. Part One of this Special Report will look at the nature of the changes. Part Two, later this week, will look at specific implications for your portfolio. Hurricanes Helene and Milton are the perfect case study for the coming changes in capital markets and capitalism.

CPI core inflation ticks upward; 25 basis point cut in November now consensus

CPI core inflation ticks upward; 25 basis point cut in November now consensus

Today, both the headline and the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in 0.1 percentage point higher than forecast for the month, with a month to month 0.2% increase in the headline index and a 0.3% rise for the core.On an annual basis, the headline index rose 2.4% in September, slightly less than the 2.5% in August. The core inflation rate, the more important number to the Federal Reserve, accelerated for the first time in one and a half years, to 3.3% from 3.2%. Weekly initial claims for unemployment also came out today, Thursday, October 10, and showed a much-bigger-than-expected increase of 258,000, against the median forecast for 230,000. Together the two reports almost cemented the odds of a 25 basis point cut in interest rates when the Fed meets on November 7.

Of course, neither candidate is taking about the soaring budget deficit

Of course, neither candidate is taking about the soaring budget deficit

The federal budget deficit swelled to $1.8 trillion in the fiscal year that ended in September, the Congressional Budget Office warned today, Tuesday, October 8. In the recently concluded fiscal 2024 year interest payments on the debt reached $950 billion, larger than the size of the Pentagon budget. As of Friday, the United States had accumulated a public debt of $35.7 trillion.

Wait! No soft landing! No more rate cuts! The market freaks out again!

Wait! No soft landing! No more rate cuts! The market freaks out again!

It’s back! Fear that the economy is so strong that the Federal Reserve won’t cut interest rates as sharply or as quickly as expected. In the last few days, following on a surprisingly strong September jobs report, the market has gone from giving 50/50 odds to a second large 50 basis point interest rate cut at its November 7 meeting to pricing in doubts that the central bank will deliver even a 25 basis point cut.

Albemarle, lithium stocks jump on buy-out  speculation

Albemarle, lithium stocks jump on buy-out speculation

Shares of lithium market leader Albemarle (ALB) rose 8.25% on Friday to close at $102.O9 on speculation in Australia that mining giant Rio Tinto (RIO) will pursue a major lithium deal with Albemarle cited as a possible target. Shares of Arcadium Lithium (ALTM), Lithium Americas (LAC) and Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM) also jumped, +10%, +7.1% and +3.1%, respectively. The speculation makes sense to me.

September jobs report good news for the economy

September jobs report good news for the economy

The U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs in September, the most in six months. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% and hourly earnings increased 4% from a year earlier, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics. Strong data is reassuring investors worried that the Federal Reserve had moved too slowly to cut interest rates and that the economy was headed toward a slump.

Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week, ahead expect…

Money-market fund assets rise to record $6.46 trillion–but what does it mean?

Total assets under management in U.S. money-market funds rose by $38.7 billion in the week week ended October 2, according to the latest Investment Company Institute data released on Thursday. The increase puts total assets at a record $6.46 trillion, and caps the biggest quarter of inflows since the March 2023 banking crisis. The old record was set when the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and other lenders sent a flood of cash into money-market funds as the Federal Reserve raised rates. What’s odd now is that the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates and the financial system doesn’t seem particularly stressed.

Right now markets aren’t pricing in regional war in Middle East–that could change fast

Right now markets aren’t pricing in regional war in Middle East–that could change fast

What’s amazing to me right now is how complacent Wall Street is about the prospects for a wider regional war in the Middle East. Which could include an attack by Israel on Iran’s nuclear facilities.On a day when Israel vowed to retaliate against a barrage from Iran that rained down missiles on Israel’s Iron Dome defense, West Texas Intermediate oil rose by just 0.39% to $70.10 a barrel. International benchmark Brent crude was ahead just 1.43% to 74.61.

Tesla misses on quarterly deliveries–again

Tesla (TSLA) delivered 462,890 vehicles in the three months to 30 September. That was up 6.4% from the preceding quarter. But the delivery total missed Wall Street expectations for it to deliver 469,828 vehicles. That left the company facing the daunting task of delivering a record 516,344 vehicles in the fourth quarter in order to match its 2023 delivery figure of 1.81 million vehicles. A shortfall would result in Tesla recording its first ever annual drop in deliveries.

Today I made my first 2 Harris picks in my Special Report on election stock winners

Special Report “10 Trump and 10 Harris winners (and 5 losers)–first 3 Trump picks and first 2 Harris picks

I don’t know which candidate will win the election. Right now the polls are within the margin of error on the national level–and even tighter in the seven battleground states that will likely decide the electionm. But I do know the results on November 5 will move stocks. Some right off the bat even before the results are certified. Ans more significantly as a new administration clarifies its policy views and takes office.The results will move the stock market in general
And they will move individual stocks and sectors in particular.

Consumer sentiment rebounds on final revision

Consumer sentiment rebounds on final revision

U.S. consumer sentiment continued to rise in late September, reaching a five-month high on more optimism about the economy. The University of Michigan’s final September sentiment index rose to 70.1 from the 69 preliminary reading released earlier this month. The latest figure issued Friday follows an August index of 67.9.

Micron surge shows why it’s so hard to leave this market

Micron surge shows why it’s so hard to leave this market

This is why it’s so hard to sell this market in spite of stunningly high valuations. “This” is the 14.7% gain today in shares of Micron Technology after the company announced results for the fiscal fourth quarter and forecasts for fiscal first quarter revenue and earnings yesterday.

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