April 3, 2025
What You Need to Know Today:
Trump announces his new tariff plan; how will first the financial markets and then consumers react?
My first take away from President Donald Trump’s Rose Garden speech on his new global reciprocal tariff plan is that it worse than expected. In some cases shockingly worse.
Tesla deliveries drop worse than expected
Tesla (TSLA0 reported a 13% drop in vehicle sales in the first three months of the year, making it the company’s worst quarter since 2022.
Trump announces his new tariff plan; how will first the financial markets and then consumers react?
My first take away from President Donald Trump’s Rose Garden speech on his new global reciprocal tariff plan is that it worse than expected. In some cases shockingly worse.
Senate Republicans plan for $5.5 trillion in tax cuts; more than House $4.5 trillion
Senate Republicans have unveiled a budget blueprint that includes a $4 trillion (over 10 years) extension of President Donald Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, an additional $1.5 trillion in further tax reductions, and an increase in the debt ceiling of up to $5 trillion. Senate Republicans say they want to ensure that Congress does not need to vote on the debt ceiling again before the 2026 midterm elections
The Republican-controlled House recently pass a budget framework with $4.5 trillion in total cuts. And a $4 trillion incree in the debt ceiling.
Republicans say they are using accounting that assumes the cost of extending the expiring 2017 Trump tax cuts is $0.
Please watch my new YouTube video: Why the Fed is almost certain to be wrong
Today’s video is Why the Fed is Almost Certain to be Wrong. Blame it in lags. Lags make economic forecasting really difficult at the best of times. How long does it take policies like tariffs and tax cuts to actually affect the economy and show up in the data? Right now, we’re dealing with lags from a tariffs that will eventually raise consumer prices. We don’t know when this will hit people in the wallet and really start to affect the economy as a whole. Another problem is the upcoming Trump tax cuts. This will be stimulative to the economy and the Fed may have to look at raising rates again in effort to slow more inflation. If, however, the tariffs slow the economy enough to balance out the stimulative effect of the tax cuts, the Fed would look at lowering rates. There’s really little that monetary policy can do about tariff-caused price increases. White House accounting says the tariffs and tax cuts will balance each other, but it’s tough to say if the money coming out of consumer pockets are the same pockets benefiting from the tax cuts. All this to say, the Fed remains between a rock and a hard place, and has little chance of getting this right and will almost certaInly make a mistake. The question is, How big will the mistake be?
Manufacturing activity turns negative in March
U.S.factory activity contracted in March for the first time this year and prices accelerated sharply for a second month. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index declined 1.3 points last month to 49, according to data released Tuesday. In this index readings below 50 indicate contraction.
Special Report: 10 stock picks for the 3 hottest sectors in 2025–and when to buy them: Part 1 AI
In 2025 you will want your portfolio fully weighted toward AI, ENERGY, and WEIGHT-LOSS DRUG stocks.
Not just any stock in those sectors, of course. All three sectors will be full of surprises and they won’t play out the way the conventional wisdom now believes. Some stocks in these sectors will do just okay as a rising tide lifts all boats. But some stocks will be GREAT. These winners could be the foundation for another great year for your portfolio. In fact, I expect that 2025 will be a tough year for an investor to make money even if stocks do finish higher. That’s because the year will be filled with more than the usual twists and turns designed make you sell on fear just when you should be holding on or even buying more. And don’t think that the year won’t include more than one of those moments rallies designed to suck you in at the top because–well, because you fear missing out. Yes, FOMO, fear of missing out will be alive and well in 2025. To do well in 2025, you’ll have to not only pick the hot trends, but also understand when that trend is about to zig zag and which stocks you’ll want to ride through all the noise and chaos. Giving you what you need for profits in 2025vis what this Special Report: 10 stock picks for the hottest sectors of 2025 is all about.And there’s no better sector to demonstrate the challenges of 2025 than Artificial Intelligence, the first of my hottest sectors for 2025. (The next two hot trends, energy and weight-loss drugs will follow in the next few days.)
Live Market Report (20 minute delay)
Tesla deliveries drop worse than expected
Tesla (TSLA0 reported a 13% drop in vehicle sales in the first three months of the year, making it the company’s worst quarter since 2022.
Trump announces his new tariff plan; how will first the financial markets and then consumers react?
My first take away from President Donald Trump’s Rose Garden speech on his new global reciprocal tariff plan is that it worse than expected. In some cases shockingly worse.
Senate Republicans plan for $5.5 trillion in tax cuts; more than House $4.5 trillion
Senate Republicans have unveiled a budget blueprint that includes a $4 trillion (over 10 years) extension of President Donald Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, an additional $1.5 trillion in further tax reductions, and an increase in the debt ceiling of up to $5 trillion. Senate Republicans say they want to ensure that Congress does not need to vote on the debt ceiling again before the 2026 midterm elections
The Republican-controlled House recently pass a budget framework with $4.5 trillion in total cuts. And a $4 trillion incree in the debt ceiling.
Republicans say they are using accounting that assumes the cost of extending the expiring 2017 Trump tax cuts is $0.
Please watch my new YouTube video: Why the Fed is almost certain to be wrong
Today’s video is Why the Fed is Almost Certain to be Wrong. Blame it in lags. Lags make economic forecasting really difficult at the best of times. How long does it take policies like tariffs and tax cuts to actually affect the economy and show up in the data? Right now, we’re dealing with lags from a tariffs that will eventually raise consumer prices. We don’t know when this will hit people in the wallet and really start to affect the economy as a whole. Another problem is the upcoming Trump tax cuts. This will be stimulative to the economy and the Fed may have to look at raising rates again in effort to slow more inflation. If, however, the tariffs slow the economy enough to balance out the stimulative effect of the tax cuts, the Fed would look at lowering rates. There’s really little that monetary policy can do about tariff-caused price increases. White House accounting says the tariffs and tax cuts will balance each other, but it’s tough to say if the money coming out of consumer pockets are the same pockets benefiting from the tax cuts. All this to say, the Fed remains between a rock and a hard place, and has little chance of getting this right and will almost certaInly make a mistake. The question is, How big will the mistake be?
Manufacturing activity turns negative in March
U.S.factory activity contracted in March for the first time this year and prices accelerated sharply for a second month. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index declined 1.3 points last month to 49, according to data released Tuesday. In this index readings below 50 indicate contraction.
Data point from Europe: how big a hit will U.S. companies take from the Trump tariffs?
By itself, the display stand in the main Vodafone store in Venice doesn’t prove much. But with the context of European anger at U.S tariffs and consumer boycott of U.S. goods in countries like Denmark, I found the empty rack fro Apple’s iPhone and the big display of phones from China’s Xiaomi, well, suggestive.
Is Wall Street forecasting a correction–or talking stocks into one?
Goldman Sachs’ influential strategist David Kostin has just cut his target for the Standard & Poor’s 500 for a second time this month. (Kostin had first reduced his target from 6,500 on March 11.) He now expects the index to end the year at around 5,700 versus his previous estimate of 6,200. The new target implies a gain of just 2% from Friday’s close. In other words, you’d be better off buying a 6-month Treasury paying 4.23% and holding it to maturity.
More excitement for April 2, Liberation Day: Tesla reports first quarter deliveries
On 2 April, Liberation Day, President Donald Trump will announce a big new round of tariffs on global exports to the United States. And Tesla (TSLA) will release data for first-quarter deliveries. Analysts expect the report to show a dip on the same period last year.
Another vote in the White House for more tariffs
It’s not clear who White House advisor Peter Navarro speaks for but on Sunday he spoke up loudly for more tariffs. On Fox News Navarro claimed Sunday that President Donald Trump’s new tariffs would raise more than $6 trillion in federal revenue over the next decade. Exactly why that’s a good idea wasn’t clear from Navarro’s appearance since it would amount to the largest peacetime tax hike in modern U.S. history.
The dollar isn’t behaving like it’s supposed to–replacing dollar ETF with yen ETF
On Monday, March 31, I will sell the Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index BullishFund ETF (UUP) out of the Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio and replace it with the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY). I will leave the portfolio weighting at 25%. The yen ETF is up 5.32% in the last three months as of the close on March 28. It charges a 0.40% expense ratio.
What if the Trump tariffs are going to be bigger than Wall Street expects?
Wall Street is, clearly, afraid that President Donald Trump’s tariffs are going to significantly slow the U.S. economy. Those fears drove the Standard & Poor’s 500 down another 1.97% on Friday and sent the NASDAQ Composite down 2.70%. But I think that there’s still a large percentage of investors who think the tariffs won’t be as bad as their advance press suggests, either because they believe they’re simply negotiating ploys or because President Trump has history of barking worse than he bites. Frankly, I think those investors are wrong.
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
The next big round of Trump tariffs and the March jobs numbers will be the big events of the week.
Economists cut their forecasts for GDP growth in 2025
In the latest Bloomberg survey, economists cut back their expectations for U.S. growth this year.Gross Domestic Product, (GDP) will grow at a 2% rate. That’s down from projections of 2.3% growth in the previous month’s poll
The economists in the survey lowered their projection for first-quarter growth by a full percentage point to 1.2%.
Bad inflation news is worse than expected
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure rose in February at a faster pace than in January. The rate of increase was also greater than economists had expected
More inflation data tomorrow and it’s not expected to be good
Friday’s core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy—-the central bank’s preferred measure of underlying inflation-—is forecast to show signs of stickiness.
Trump to announce big, new auto tariffs
President Donald Trump will announce auto tariffs on Wednesday afternoon, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said during a briefing with reporters at the White House.
Details of the tariffs are unclear–who following White House “policy” on tariffs is surprised at that? Stock markets fell on news. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed down 1.12%. The NASDAQ Composite dropped 2.04%.
Moody’s warns on U.S. finances
Credit rating company, Moody’s Investors Service, one of the three big debt ratio companies, warned on Tuesday that President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs could hamper the country’s ability to cope with a growing debt pile and higher interest rates. The rating agency said that America’s “fiscal strength is on course for a continued multiyear decline”, having already “deteriorated further” since it assigned a negative outlook to America’s Aaa credit rating in November 2023.
Consumer confidence continues to fall–now at a 4 year low
U.S. consumer confidence fell in March to the lowest level in four years, according to the Conference Board’s survey.
The Conference Board’s gauge of confidence fell 7.2 points to 92.9. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a reading of 94. A measure of expectations for the next six months dropped nearly 10 points to 65.2, the lowest in 12 years
More news likely to keep AI rally going in China–adding Alibaba to my portfolios
Today I added shares of Tencent (TCEHY) and the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) to my portfolios at least partly on the strength of China’s AI rally. Tomorrow, March 25, I’d adding shares of Alibaba (BABA) to my Jubak Picks and Volatility portfolios.
A new Trump tariff “plan”–every country that buys oil from Venezuela will pay a 25% tariff
President Donald Trump said on Monday that any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela will pay a 25% tariff on exports to the United States.
This “secondary tariff” will take effect on April 2, the president announced in a Truth Social post.
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