March 23, 2025
What You Need to Know Today:
Huge volume today but not much movement
Just five minutes before Wall Street’s close, the Standard & Poor’s 500 erased a slide that earlier in the session exceeded 1%. The index closed up 0.08% on the day. The NASDAQ Composite added 0.52%. The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) dropped 2.63% to 19.28. These relatively minor directional moves came despite huge volume.
Huge volume today but not much movement
Just five minutes before Wall Street’s close, the Standard & Poor’s 500 erased a slide that earlier in the session exceeded 1%. The index closed up 0.08% on the day. The NASDAQ Composite added 0.52%. The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) dropped 2.63% to 19.28. These relatively minor directional moves came despite huge volume.
Trump criticizes the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady
That didn’t take long. Wednesday afternoon the Federal Reserve decided to keep its benchmark interest rate steady–no rate cut. Wednesday night President Donald Trump renewed his call for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates as he criticized the central bank’s decision. “The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING RATES as U.S.Tariffs start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Do the right thing.” Trump added: “April 2nd is Liberation Day in America!!!” President Trump’s criticism of the Fed’s decision certainly isn’t a surprise.
Good news from the Fed today–central bank still sees two interest rate cuts in 2025
The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee surprised no one with today’s vote to keep the benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 4.25%-4.5%. The mild surprise came in the revisions to the Dot Plot projections. The Fed continued to pencil in two interest rate cuts for 2025. Some investors had feared that the Fed would show it has moved to projecting just one cut in 2025.
More tariffs, lots more tariffs, still on schedule forApril 2
The Washington Post is reporting today that White House aides are preparing new tariffs on most imports to be announced on April 2, laying the groundwork for an escalation in global tariffs that President Donald Trump has called “Liberation Day.”
Getting ahead of selling in this market is like playing Whac-a-mole–2 more sells
I’m selling Danaher (DHR) and RTX (RTX) out of my Jubak Picks and Dividend portfolios, respectively, in an attempt to get ahead of some of the likely fallout from policy moves by the Trump Administration. And in order to sit out as much of current market volatility as is possible.
Special Report: 10 stock picks for the 3 hottest sectors in 2025–and when to buy them: Part 1 AI
In 2025 you will want your portfolio fully weighted toward AI, ENERGY, and WEIGHT-LOSS DRUG stocks.
Not just any stock in those sectors, of course. All three sectors will be full of surprises and they won’t play out the way the conventional wisdom now believes. Some stocks in these sectors will do just okay as a rising tide lifts all boats. But some stocks will be GREAT. These winners could be the foundation for another great year for your portfolio. In fact, I expect that 2025 will be a tough year for an investor to make money even if stocks do finish higher. That’s because the year will be filled with more than the usual twists and turns designed make you sell on fear just when you should be holding on or even buying more. And don’t think that the year won’t include more than one of those moments rallies designed to suck you in at the top because–well, because you fear missing out. Yes, FOMO, fear of missing out will be alive and well in 2025. To do well in 2025, you’ll have to not only pick the hot trends, but also understand when that trend is about to zig zag and which stocks you’ll want to ride through all the noise and chaos. Giving you what you need for profits in 2025vis what this Special Report: 10 stock picks for the hottest sectors of 2025 is all about.And there’s no better sector to demonstrate the challenges of 2025 than Artificial Intelligence, the first of my hottest sectors for 2025. (The next two hot trends, energy and weight-loss drugs will follow in the next few days.)
Live Market Report (20 minute delay)
Huge volume today but not much movement
Just five minutes before Wall Street’s close, the Standard & Poor’s 500 erased a slide that earlier in the session exceeded 1%. The index closed up 0.08% on the day. The NASDAQ Composite added 0.52%. The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) dropped 2.63% to 19.28. These relatively minor directional moves came despite huge volume.
Trump criticizes the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady
That didn’t take long. Wednesday afternoon the Federal Reserve decided to keep its benchmark interest rate steady–no rate cut. Wednesday night President Donald Trump renewed his call for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates as he criticized the central bank’s decision. “The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING RATES as U.S.Tariffs start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Do the right thing.” Trump added: “April 2nd is Liberation Day in America!!!” President Trump’s criticism of the Fed’s decision certainly isn’t a surprise.
Good news from the Fed today–central bank still sees two interest rate cuts in 2025
The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee surprised no one with today’s vote to keep the benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 4.25%-4.5%. The mild surprise came in the revisions to the Dot Plot projections. The Fed continued to pencil in two interest rate cuts for 2025. Some investors had feared that the Fed would show it has moved to projecting just one cut in 2025.
More tariffs, lots more tariffs, still on schedule forApril 2
The Washington Post is reporting today that White House aides are preparing new tariffs on most imports to be announced on April 2, laying the groundwork for an escalation in global tariffs that President Donald Trump has called “Liberation Day.”
Getting ahead of selling in this market is like playing Whac-a-mole–2 more sells
I’m selling Danaher (DHR) and RTX (RTX) out of my Jubak Picks and Dividend portfolios, respectively, in an attempt to get ahead of some of the likely fallout from policy moves by the Trump Administration. And in order to sit out as much of current market volatility as is possible.
Please watch my new YouTube video: Hot Money Moves Now Vix Call Options
Today’s Hot Money Moves NOW: Buy VIX Volatility Call Options. Toward the end of January, I bought VIX Call Options, hoping to make money as volatility increased in the market. I bought a VIX call with a strike of 20, and a VIX call with a strike of 26–both with May 21, 2025 expirations. Both of these buys were up about 40% before Friday’s snap-back rally. And looking at probable “events” I think volatility is going to increase in the second half of March. But this week we may see some optimism bring the VIX down and you may be able to buy more options on that future volatility at a temporarily depressed price. I would look to buy these options this week and hold for the next three weeks or so, through more tariff uncertainty in April and sell before the May 21 expiration. For more detail om my VIX options buys see the Volatility Portfolio on my subscription JubakAM.com site.
Luminar soars 27% today on YouTube video rave
Luminar Technologies (LAZR) surged on Monday after former NASA scientist Mark Rober test-drove a car equipped with the company’s lidar technology in a YouTube video and said it outperformed Tesla Inc.’s Autopilot feature.
Monday adding more VIX options on volatility after snap-back rally
Friday’s snap-back rally took a big bite out of the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX). The VIX dropped 11.72%, or 2.89, to 21.77. But the plunge in Call options on the VIX was even bigger with the VIX Call option with a strike price of 20 and an expiration of May 2025 falling 23.34% and the VIX Call option with a strike price of 26 and an expiration of May 2025 26.000 falling 31.34%. (I’m citing the action on these two options because they are the Calls that I own in my Volatility Portfolio.)
This is exactly the opportunity I flagged last week to add more volatility bets without paying too much after the run upon options prices that came to a screeching halt on Friday.
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
I expect less drama than markets now fear from Wednesday’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate-setting Open Market Committee.
More bad news on consumer confidence and inflation expectations
A new survey released on Friday from the University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment falling 11% in the March survey as consumers in all age and income groups and of all political affiliations have turned more negative about the direction of the economy. Consumer...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Quick Pick Apple
Today’s Quick Pick is Apple (AAPL). This is a short term buy or, if you own it, a “get ready to sell.” Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference happens in early May, and the stock usually gets a bounce from new product and technology announcements. This year we’re likely to hear more on AI. Apple’s stock hasn’t performed all that well lately, and I don’t want to hold the stock after the expected pop from the conference and new product releases in the fall. I worry about the long term choices the company is making. Apple has decided not to offer a low-price, affordable introductory iPhone as a gateway to their suite of products. They’ve effectively ceded the lower end of the market to other players–especially in China. They’ve also just announced that the AI add-ons to Siri they promised have been delayed and it’s unclear when they’ll be available. Apple is lagging in AI as other companies race ahead. We can expect disappointing sales in December–particularly out of China. I don’t want to hold on to the stock at the end of the year and I’m looking to sell on a bounce after the conference and new product launches in September.
That didn’t take long–snap-back rally arrives
A day after major indexes moved into a correction, stocks bounced back like, well, like a basketball after a Lebron James dunk, like a sling shock at Halloween, like, well, like stocks after hitting over-sold technical levels. The gains in stocks were, how you say, broad-based. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed up 2.1%. The NADAQ Composite added 2.6% and the NASDAQ 100 rose 2.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.7%. The MSCI World Index rose 1.8%. Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index climbed 2.8%. The Russell 2000 small cap index was up 2.5%.
A 200% tariff on champagne? Here’s my solution to the impending crisis
President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 200% tariff on wine, champagne and other alcoholic beverages from France and elsewhere in the European Union, if Brussels follows through with a tariff on American whiskey exports, a measure aimed at retaliating against Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs that went into effect on Wednesday. What to do? This is serious. Life without champagne! Sacre bleu! We need a solution.
We’re in a correction–a likely short-term snapback rally won’t change that but it will be an opportunity to add more short bets
The Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 1.4% today. That took the index into correction country with a three-week rout from its high on February 219 of more than 10%–the technical definition of a correction. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index already in a correction lost 1.9% on the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3%, bringing it 9.3% below its last record in December–and to the edge of a correction.
The 16 trading sessions it took for the S&P 500 to tumble by this magnitude from its February 19 high marks the seventh-fastest correction in records going back to 1929, according to Bloomberg. Three of the seven-fastest drawdowns of this magnitude happened under President Donald Trump–in 2018, 2020 and now.
Some technical indicators are saying that the drop has been too far, too fast. And that we could be about to see a short-term snap-back rally.
Please watch my new YouTube video: Retail flashing red
Today’s video is Retail Stocks and Recession Fears. In the past week we’ve seen a cascade of negative news from the retail sector. Macy’s announced projected comparable store sales would be “down slightly” for 2025, and Target expected flat comparable store sales for 2025. Last week, Target’s stock was down 7.4% and Best Buy fell 11.5%. I own Costco and Wal-Mart, (the best retail stocks at the moment) but I will be selling them this week. Costco, which I bought in 2022, is up 69% since I purchased it. I’ll be taking my profits and eliminating my exposure to the sector, which is a good place to be while tariffs and a volatile economy threaten retail stocks.
Selling American Airlines shares–the stock has made a round trip from my buy
On January 22, 2025, my position in American Airlines (AAL) was up 46% from my October 22, 2024 buy-in my Jubak Picks Portfolio. As of the close on March 12, however, the stock is down 34% for 2025. And my portfolio position is down 16%. I don’t see any sign of a recovery in airline sector growth or revenue wth the economy clearly slowing. In fact all the major U.S. carriers have recently cut guidance for 2025. So on March 13, I will be selling American Airlines out o my Jubak Picks Portfolio.
I think we can call this a “trade war”–tariffs break out all over
The Trump Administration raised tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports to 25% on Wednesday. And the European Union and Canada hit back Wednesday with tariffs of their own on billions of dollars’ worth of U.S. products.
Inflation comes in a bit better than expected–but not enough to lead to an interest rate cut or to push stocks decisively higher
This morning’s report on Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation came in better than expected by economists. On a monthly basis, the all-items or headline inflation rate rose just 0.2% last month. That’s lower than economists’ expectations and a drop from a large 0.5% increase in January. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, also rose just 0.2% on a monthly basis, down from a 0.4% rise in January. Core prices were up 3.1% for the year, an improvement from the prior month. Headline or all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose at a 2.8% annual rate in February. Three reasons not to feel astoundingly optimistic about these numbers.
50% steel tariffs on Canada off, 25% tariffs still on for March 12
After threatening to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada, President Donald Trump “back-tracked” and said he would not double those tariffs, but instead 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum would take effect on Canada and other nations on Wednesday, March 12.
Musk says DOGE will need another year–can the markets and the economy take that much chaos Especially if the target is Social Security?
In an interview on FOX Business on Monday Elon Musk said the U.S. DOGE Service is confident it will reach its goal of cutting $1 trillion in federal spending. And that he expected DOGE’s work will stretch another year. The next big target will be what he claims is massive fraud in Social Security.
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