April 3, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The Institute for Supply Management’s composite index of services fell 1.2 points to 51.4 a four-year low. The drop in the report released today, April 3, was the second month in a row. The services report came a day after the manufacturing sector report showed costs rising in the sector. Which, of course, led some investors and traders to worry that the Federal Reserve might put off the start of interest rate cuts beyond its June 12 meeting. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which hit a new intraday high for 2024 at 4.37% yesterday, closed at 4.35% today. That’s still 17 basis points higher in a month. The relative calm today was also a result of remarks from Jerome Powell and other Fed officials that boiled down to “We told you the road to 2% inflation would be bumpy, but we haven’t seen anything in the recent data to change the direction of our policy or the timing of cuts.” A June cut, in other words, remains very much on the table.
April 2, 2024 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, VZ |
Bookkeeping. I added AT&T (T) as Pick #7 for my New World for Dividend Investing Special Report (You can find it in the Special Report section of this site along with all the content on this market and its trends for Dividend Income investors. But I’m reposting it as a stand alone pick so no one misses it.
April 2, 2024 | Daily JAM |
Today’s Hot Button Moves NOW video is Buy Japanese Yen. I frankly can’r remember the last time I recommended buyinfg Yen. No one has wanted to buy the Yen for a long time, and it was the last major currency to have negative interest rates. The Bank of Japan has finally moved interest rates into positive territory. But, just barely. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are currently at about 4.2% and the gap is about 3.5% between that and the Japanese government bond. A popular short is betting that the gap will get even wider. And the Yen is under speculative attack with market pressure to driving it down lower. But the Yen is currently too low, the Bank of Japan is starting to say ans the current price against the dollsr is around where it was the last time the Bank of Japan intervened. It’s likely we’ll hear more talk of intervention in the next three months or so and because there’s such a large short position we’re likely to see a decent pop in the Yen. To take advantage of this (potential) bounce, you can use the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust ETF (FXY). Also, I would hold on to any Japanese stocks until we see that bounce. This isn’t a long term play, nor should it be a big chunk of your portfolio, but it’s a play that could see pop in the next three months.
April 2, 2024 | BYDDF, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing |
Today, Tesla (TSLA) reported that it delivered just 386,810 vehicles in the first three months of the year. That was the biggest difference between actual sales and Wall Street sales estimates in data going back seven years, according to Bloomberg. Most analysts expected Tesla to sell more vehicles than a year ago. Instead, deliveries ended up dropping 8.5% year-over-year. And it was the first drop in year-over-year sales since the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic.
April 1, 2024 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, Jubak Picks |
Bookkeeping. I added Honeywell (HON) as Pick #6 for my New World for Dividend Investing Special Report (You can find it in the Special Report section of this site along with all the content on this market and its trends for Dividend Income investors. But I’m reposting it as a stand alone pick so no one misses it.
April 1, 2024 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, MRNA, Videos |
To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one of our special offers it will be lower) for a year for ongoing and continuing access to the...
April 1, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Could it be just two interest rate cuts in 2024 instead of three (or four as the most bullish wish)? The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index showed U.S. factory activity unexpectedly expanding in March for the first time since September 2022 on a sharp rebound in production and stronger demand. Even worse, for those counting on early and often cuts from the Fed, input costs, AKA inflation, climbed.
March 31, 2024 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
The results are in. And, surprise the technology sector didn’t lead the market in the first quarter. In fact the 8.8% gain for the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK), which tracks the S&P 500’s information technology sector, trailed the 10% gain for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index. And several other sectors outperformed the XLK ETF.
March 31, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Maybe no one ever expects the Spanish Inquisition, but we all know by now to expect the monthly jobs report to be a big deal for this market. On Friday, April 5, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report on nonfarm payrolls for March. Economists expect 216,000 nonfarm jobs to have been added in March.
March 29, 2024 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, Jubak Picks, Long Term, Top 50 Stocks, V |
Bookkeeping. I added Visa as Pick #5 for my New World of Dividend Investors Special Report (You can find it in the Special Report section of this site along with all the content on this market and its trends for Dividend Income investors. But I’m reposting it as a stand alone pick so no one misses it.
March 29, 2024 | Daily JAM, Videos |
Today’s video is Tech CEOs Calling a Top in This Market? The Financial Times just did a story about tech CEOs insider buying and selling. During the first quarter of 2024, the ratio of insider selling vs. insider buying has climbed to heights not seen since the first quarter of 2021. Amazon’s CEO Jeff Bezos, sold about $135 million of Amazon stock and Peter Thiel, cofounder of Palantir Technologies, sold $175 million worth of stock in March. Why? There could be a few reasons for these sales. During the rally at the end of 2023, many investors put off selling until 2024 to delay capital gains taxes and we’re seeing that selling demand now. Additionally, these tech CEOs have tremendous amounts of their wealth tied up in one asset, and in order to diversify, they must sell some of those shares. But CEOs could be selling because they feel this market is near a top. The fear that we’re in a bubble like that in the dot com era has been nagging investors and these sales by tech CEOs are contributing to that fear. I think we’re likely to be still a year or more away from a top in this rally. I don’t expect to start to hear a negative narrative about AI until 2025 or 2026. New technology takes a while to work through the system and I think around 2025-2026 companies will notice that their new AI technologies haven’t yet produced the returns they hoped on the schedule they imagined and the market will start to react. That will be the time for a sell off. And for long term investors to buy on any excessive selling, (Remember how long it took before the massive investment in PCs started to drop to bottom lines.) In the meantime, I don’t see a bubble popping in 2024 and while this news from tech CEOs doesn’t make me feel better, I do think it’s important to recognize that tech CEOs have reasons to sell now that don’t have much of anything do with your portfolio’s risk portfolio.
March 28, 2024 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, Short Term, Top 50 Stocks |
Apple is likely to take its shareholders on an even wilder ride in the next six months than they’ve been on since the December all-time high at $199.62. The end result, I think is likely to be a renewed rally beginning in the fall–if you can either hold on through the volatility until then or see your way clear to timing when to buy and sell.
