Morning Briefing
April 5, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The U.S. economy added 303,000 jobs last month. That was far more than than the 192,000 expected by economists.The unemployment rate dipped to 3.8%.
For today at least the stock market sees the report as “The glass is half full.” Yes, a stronger than expected labor market raises the odds that the Federal Reserve won’t begin its interest rate cuts at its June 12 meeting. But the strength in the economy is good for stocks. And if not June, then the Fed will cut in July, the thinking goes today.
April 3, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The Institute for Supply Management’s composite index of services fell 1.2 points to 51.4 a four-year low. The drop in the report released today, April 3, was the second month in a row. The services report came a day after the manufacturing sector report showed costs rising in the sector. Which, of course, led some investors and traders to worry that the Federal Reserve might put off the start of interest rate cuts beyond its June 12 meeting. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which hit a new intraday high for 2024 at 4.37% yesterday, closed at 4.35% today. That’s still 17 basis points higher in a month. The relative calm today was also a result of remarks from Jerome Powell and other Fed officials that boiled down to “We told you the road to 2% inflation would be bumpy, but we haven’t seen anything in the recent data to change the direction of our policy or the timing of cuts.” A June cut, in other words, remains very much on the table.
April 2, 2024 | BYDDF, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing |
Today, Tesla (TSLA) reported that it delivered just 386,810 vehicles in the first three months of the year. That was the biggest difference between actual sales and Wall Street sales estimates in data going back seven years, according to Bloomberg. Most analysts expected Tesla to sell more vehicles than a year ago. Instead, deliveries ended up dropping 8.5% year-over-year. And it was the first drop in year-over-year sales since the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic.
April 1, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Could it be just two interest rate cuts in 2024 instead of three (or four as the most bullish wish)? The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index showed U.S. factory activity unexpectedly expanding in March for the first time since September 2022 on a sharp rebound in production and stronger demand. Even worse, for those counting on early and often cuts from the Fed, input costs, AKA inflation, climbed.
March 31, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Maybe no one ever expects the Spanish Inquisition, but we all know by now to expect the monthly jobs report to be a big deal for this market. On Friday, April 5, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report on nonfarm payrolls for March. Economists expect 216,000 nonfarm jobs to have been added in March.
March 28, 2024 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, Short Term, Top 50 Stocks |
Apple is likely to take its shareholders on an even wilder ride in the next six months than they’ve been on since the December all-time high at $199.62. The end result, I think is likely to be a renewed rally beginning in the fall–if you can either hold on through the volatility until then or see your way clear to timing when to buy and sell.
March 26, 2024 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, LLY, Mid Term, Morning Briefing, NVO, Stock Alerts, VKTX |
First, it was Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) on the attack with trial results that shows its GLP-1 dibetes/weight loss drug out performing current leader of the pack drugs fro Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (LLY). On the news Viking soared.
Then Novo Nordisk struct back with data of its own showing progress on an oral formulation of its rugs. (All existing GLP-1 drugs are delivered by injection.) That cratered Viking Shares. Now, March 26, Viking has released new Phase 1 trial data from a multiple ascending dose study of the oral version of VK2735, a dual agonist of the glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) and glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) receptors.
March 22, 2024 | Daily JAM, Long Term, Morning Briefing |
You know the saying, When all you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail? How about this data world version, When you don’t track the data, you can’t see the problem? I was drawn to paraphrase the classic hammer/nail adage by the release of the Federal Reserve’s most recent economic projections, the Dot Plot, on Wednesday, March 20 when I thought about the economic data the Fed didn’t include in its projections.
March 21, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 210,000 for the week ended March 16, the Labor Department reported today, March 21. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 215,000 claims in the latest week. Continuing claims for unemployment increased 4,000 to 1.807 million during the week ending March 9, the report on Thursday showed. The Federal Reserve has been looking for signs that the labor market is weakening before raising interest rates. So far the evidence is inconclusive.
March 20, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
The Federal Reserve unanimously voted to leave the benchmark Fed Funds rate in a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest since 2001, for a fifth straight meeting. They left their projections in the quarterly Dot Plot for the Fed Funds rate by the end of 2024 at 4.6%. That was the same projection as in the December Dot Plot. And nothing in either the post-meeting press statement or in Fed chair Jerome Powell’s press remarks changed the timing on when the Fed will make its first interest rate cut.
March 19, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) said on Tuesday, March 19, that its board of directors had approved a 50-for-one split of its common stock.
March 18, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
About 8.5% of credit card balances and 7.7% of auto loans moved into delinquency in the fourth quarter of 2023, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported last week. “Credit card and auto loan transitions into delinquency are still rising above pre-pandemic levels,” said Wilbert van der Klaauw, economic research advisor at the New York Fed. “This signals increased financial stress, especially among younger and lower-income households.” Total household debt increased by $212 billion last quarter to $17.5 trillion
