Wall Street strategists at influential investment giants are starting to recommend buying inflation hedges for 2025.
That means, at the moment, buying at the short-term end of the Treasury market–like 3-month to 12-month bills–and selling at the long-end–like 10-year notes.
Micron Technology (MU) shares shares are down another 7.12% today, Thursday, June 27, as of the close in New York time. That’s after the stock fell 6.5% in after hours trading yesterday. The problem wasn’t the company’s third-quarter earnings report after the market close yesterday. For the period ended May 30, Micron earned an adjusted 62 cents a share. Analysts had expected the company to earn 53 cent a share. Revenue was up 82% year-over-year to $6.81 billion. Wall Street was looking for $6.67 billon in revenue. But the very solid beat for the quarter turned out not to matter as far as market reaction was concerned. The problem was guidance.
I think there are reasons to worry about Nvidia’s valuation and its ability to continue to generate revenue and earnings growth at a pace that would support a forward price to earnings ratio above 40, but I think those re worries for 2025. In 2024, I don’t see anything that disrupts the AI boom story. Over the next six months or so I’d like to be buyer, especially id I can get the shares on a temporary drop. So yesterday’s drop to $118 was a promising development. There was technical support at the 50-day moving average near $100 so there was a chance the stock would move lower. Today, Tuesday, June 25, though, shares of Nvidia rallied, closing ups 6.76% at $126.09. This doesn’t mean the drop is over or the opportunity is lost,
Since March, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has accused three companies of misrepresenting how they use machine learning and other tools in what is being dubbed, by analogy with green washing, exaggerated environmental claims–AI washing.
I’d buy Broadcom even at this price as one of my three core AI stocks from the current generation of leaders. I’m adding it today to my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio.
Yesterday, Tuesday, June 18, the Congressional Budget Office projected that the federal debt would hit $50.7 trillion by 2034. That’s only 10 years from now. That year the federal debt will equal 122% of the United States’ annual economic output (GDP). That would far surpass the high set in the aftermath of World War II.
Data Monday, June 17, show that China’s economy needs more stimulus to overcome the persistent drag from China’s housing slump. The most recent bit of bad news is that industrial output—-which has made up for slow consumer spending lately-—fell short of forecasts.
On Friday, June 14, Goldman Sachs upped its year-end target for the Standard & Poor’s 500 to 5,600 points from 5,200. The idea closed at 5473 on Monday, June 17, for the 30th record high of 2024. Goldman’s forecast puts the investment company at the same expected price level as UBS Investment Bank and BMO Capital Markets. They’r talking about a roughly 3% gain from here through the end of the year. Three points to consider about the forecast.
However, as all dedicated inflation watchers know, the Federal Reserve watches the core inflation rate and not the all-items rate. That index, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% month over month in May, after rising 0.3% month over month in April. The core index rose at a 3.4% rate over the last 12 months. While the dip in core inflation is surely encouraging to the Federal Reserve as it fights to get stubborn inflation down to the central bank’s target 2% rate, today’s data show a continued problem the housing prices. The shelter index–the stand-n for housing prices in this index–increased at a 5.4% annual rate in May. That accounted for over two-thirds of the total 12-month increase in inflation.
Traders and investors reacted to Apple’s (AAPO) AI announcements during the first days of the company’s World Wide Developers Conference with enthusiasm today sending the stock up 7.26% in June 11 trading. That’s a new all-time high for the stock. Technology analysts were at best mixed. Their more tepid response set the tone yesterday when the stock dropped 1.9%. Typical was this from KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Brandon Nispel in a client note: Apple’s AI enhancements aren’t compelling enough for the average consumer to purchase a new device. I’m with the tech folks on this and today I made Apple a sell in my Special Report: Trade Wars! Trade Wars!
Employers added 272,000 jobs in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning. That number was well above the 185,000n projected by economists and even higher above the 175,000 in the April report. The financial markets were disappointed with the news since it pushed out the schedule for an initial interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve.A cut a the July 31 Fed meting has now been priced out by the market. The Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 0.14% today and the NASDAQ Composite dropped 0.23%
The Federal Reserve has been telling us over and over again that it’d decision on cutting interest rates depends on the data. Among other things, the Fed wants to see a steady slowdown in the employment market reflected in the data before it cuts interest rates. But what if the data have been wrong? For months? Today in its regular Quarterly Cent of Employment and Wages the Bureau of Labor Statistics raised just that possibility.
