Short Term
February 16, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
The Labor Department reported Friday that its producer price index—which tracks inflation before it reaches consumers—rose 0.3% from December to January. The index had dropped -0.1% in December. Measured year over year, producer prices rose by 0.9% in January. But the month to month increase in producer prices and at a higher month to month rate is the latest sign that getting inflation the “last mile” down to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target rate is going to be harder and take longer than expected.
February 16, 2024 | Daily JAM, KRE, Short Term, Volatility |
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February 15, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Remember all that fear talk after CPI headline inflation came in at a 3.1% annual rate in January versus the projected 2.9%? Well, that lasted all of a day.
February 13, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Headline, all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation fell again in January, but not by as much as economists had projected before this morning’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In January prices rose at 3.1% year-over-year. That’s a slower increase than the 3.4% annual rate notched in December. But economist had projected that inflation would dip to a 2.9% annual rate. And stocks dropped on the disappointment.
February 8, 2024 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Videos |
Today’s video is A Battle Between Fear and Greed. As the S&P gets closer to 5,000, we clearly see the battle between fear and greed. With the market breaking records on the high end, there’s a fear that it’ll crash, and that it has to go down eventually. However, the greed side is a fear of missing out on this rally that started in September as well as a likely market boost from a rate cut in May. So how do you play this mix? My thought is to go with the greed side for now, but not be too greedy. Be aware that investors aren’t likely to get out of stocks in a big way until they see the projected gains from a Fed rate cut. At worst the market may move sideways until then, and some consolidation in the market leaders would be good, so I wouldn’t do much selling just yet.
February 5, 2024 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Videos |
Today’s Trend of the Week is How Long Does FOMO Drive this Market? FOMO is “fear of missing out” and I’m using it to describe a market that is not driven by facts and fundamentals, but is largely focused on a fear of missing out on another rally, as many did in 2023. So what is the emotional trend and how long will it last? My sense is that there is one factor determining behind a lot of FOMO is expectations for a rate cut from the Fed. A potential rate cut could bring a lot more money into the market and drive prices higher– something investors don’t want to miss. In my opinion, we’ll have to wait until May or Jun for that cut to happen. So the hope of a cut will keep the market moving sideways and limit selling on high valuations. We’ll see some consolidation in the market leaders, but nothing that is likely to upend the market before these highly anticipated rate cuts.
February 2, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
I think you can kiss goodbye to the idea that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates with its march 20 meeting. Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added 353,000 jobs in January. The statisticians also revised upward the job totals for December and November. The unemployment rate held at 3.7%. Hourly wages accelerated from a month earlier, increasing by the most since March 2022. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg wee looking for the economy to add 185,000 jobs in January.
February 1, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
A day before the January jobs report that everyone on Wall Street is awaiting with bated breath two other reports painted a conflicting picture of how the U.S. economy is doing. And just in case you’ve forgotten the strength and speed of economic growth is what will determine when the Federal Reserve first cuts interest rates and how many cuts investors will see in 2024.
January 25, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annual 3.3% rate in the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department announced today. That was down from the 4.9% annual growth rate in the third quarter, but substantially above the 2.0% rate expected by economists. For the full year, the US.economy expend at a 3.1% rate.
January 24, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Today, after the market close, Tesla (TSLA) reported fourth-quarter earnings of 71 cents a share. The missed the consensus Wall Street forecast of 73 cents. Sales of $25.2 billion missed forecasts for $25.6 billion. But I’d argue that the earnings and sales misses weren’t the worst news in the report.
January 23, 2024 | Daily JAM, MMM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
3M (MMM) fell 11.03% today, Tuesday, January 23, the most in nearly five years, after announcing projections for 2024 sales and earnings below Wall Street expectations. Now granted that 3M is a special case–the company is engaged in a huge restructuring effort that has met with a high degree of investor skepticism. In short, investors doubt that the company can pull it off without cutting its dividend. So the stock is especially sensitive to any news that suggest that the restructuring is failing. But the stock’s big drop today is also an indication of how worried this market, trading at record highs, is about the possibility that earnings growth for the fourth quarter, the subject of the current earnings season, won’t support prices at these levels.
January 22, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
On Friday the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index reported a rise of 9.1 points, the biggest monthly advance since 2005, to 78.8. The preliminary January reading stands at the highest level since July 2021. Consumer sentiment jumped 13% in January to its highest level since mid-2021. Since November, consumer sentiment has risen 29%, marking the largest two-month increase in more than 30 years. And that was just the top line in a report with lots of good news for stocks and the current rally.
