Videos
February 15, 2024 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Videos |
Today’s video is Inflation: Stickier for Longer. The market is now beginning to suspect that the Fed has a last mile problem. The CPI numbers from Tuesday weren’t terrible, but they weren’t as low as the market hoped. Headline inflation was at 3.1% annual rate and core inflation was 3.9%–markedly better than the past high of 9%, but not quite hitting the 2.9% for headline inflation that economists were looking for. The miss has finished a flip in sentiment about a March rate cut. The CME FedWatch poll in January had March rate cut odds at 90% likely, now, just a month later, the odds of no action are up to nearly 90%. Only about a third of investors believe there will be a rate cut in May with odds of no action up to 61%. The calendar is being pushed out to June or July for cuts from the Fed. This has resulted in bond yields going back up, around 4.3% on the ten year Treasury, and stocks going down a bit. There is a hope out there that the CPI numbers were a January blip, but if you look at the breakdown of the inflation numbers, it seems clear that inflation is just plain sticky. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank index that looks at the sectors that tend to be sticky and how much they’re influencing the overall inflation rate shows that prices in those sticky inflation categories have stopped and that they are a major factor keeping inflation higher than hoped. . Additionally, while there’s been a big drop in goods prices, the price of services has not gone down nearly as much. The super core inflicts number, which looks a prices in the services sector after taking out the cost of shelter has stalled. All this to say, we’ve got good evidence that this last mile from 3% to 2% on inflation could take a while.
February 12, 2024 | Daily JAM, KRE, Videos, Volatility |
I’m adding a bit more timeliness to this weekly video slot by moving away from my Trend of the Week series and changing it to “Hot Button Moves NOW” to highlight action you can take now.. Today’s Hot Button Moves NOW video is: Put Options on the S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE). This is a play on continued trouble in the regional banking sector. New York Community Bank has just been downgraded to junk by Moody’s, (due to its real estate loan portfolio) and has dropped by 60%, taking the regional bank sector along with it. Last Monday I bought puts for April 24 at 14 strike price for $2.09 each and the put price has gone through the February 7 date when I recorded this video. I don’t think this is the end of regional bank trouble so I’ll be holding on to these puts until the bad news subsides. This is a good way to take advantage of some of these dips in the market and hedge risks. For more options and volatility stocks, subscribe to JubakAM.com.
February 10, 2024 | CVS, Daily JAM, Dividend Income, Videos |
Today’s Quick Pick is CVS Health (CVS). CVS owns a unique combination of healthcare delivery channels. Drugstores, yes–9,000 of them. But the company also owns health insurance company, Aetna, and Caremark, the largest pharmacy benefit manager. And recently it moved into the primary care marketplace through its acquisition of Oak Street. The company reported earnings on Wednesday, February 7, and the stock was up about 3.25% after that. While the earnings were good, (they beat by $0.13) the guidance is what is important here. The company projected higher costs for 2024 and cut guidance for GAAP earnings ($7.06) and adjusted earnings ($8.30). The reason the stock went up despite these cuts is that everyone was expecting DEEPER cuts to guidance. CVS has been signaling for weeks that rising costs in 2024 could be painful for the healthcare sector as a whole, and the relatively minor cuts in guidance led to a rally in the stock. Morningstar calculates a fair value for CVS Health of $103 a share. The stock closed at $76.32 on February 9. The stock also pays a 2.36% dividend. The stock is a member of my Dividend Portfolio. That position is up 31.25% since October 28, 2020.
February 8, 2024 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Videos |
Today’s video is A Battle Between Fear and Greed. As the S&P gets closer to 5,000, we clearly see the battle between fear and greed. With the market breaking records on the high end, there’s a fear that it’ll crash, and that it has to go down eventually. However, the greed side is a fear of missing out on this rally that started in September as well as a likely market boost from a rate cut in May. So how do you play this mix? My thought is to go with the greed side for now, but not be too greedy. Be aware that investors aren’t likely to get out of stocks in a big way until they see the projected gains from a Fed rate cut. At worst the market may move sideways until then, and some consolidation in the market leaders would be good, so I wouldn’t do much selling just yet.
February 5, 2024 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Videos |
Today’s Trend of the Week is How Long Does FOMO Drive this Market? FOMO is “fear of missing out” and I’m using it to describe a market that is not driven by facts and fundamentals, but is largely focused on a fear of missing out on another rally, as many did in 2023. So what is the emotional trend and how long will it last? My sense is that there is one factor determining behind a lot of FOMO is expectations for a rate cut from the Fed. A potential rate cut could bring a lot more money into the market and drive prices higher– something investors don’t want to miss. In my opinion, we’ll have to wait until May or Jun for that cut to happen. So the hope of a cut will keep the market moving sideways and limit selling on high valuations. We’ll see some consolidation in the market leaders, but nothing that is likely to upend the market before these highly anticipated rate cuts.
February 2, 2024 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, Videos |
Today’s Quick Pick is Hasbro (HAS). This stock isn’t terribly exciting or groundbreaking. There’s no big new tech connected to this pick. Hasbro makes toys and traditional toys are considered a declining industry. The stock is indeed ,60% off of its 2019 high. This is not a growth stock, but it is a reliable, high yield, dividend stock. Cash flow from toy sales is consistent enough to keep the 5.5-6% coming Sales may be flat this year but licensing with brands like My Little Pony and Transformers keep the company’s toys top of mind with kids and in the media. Hasbro is one of three major toy brands that make up 40% of the traditional U.S. toy market and 30% of the global market. The industry may not be exciting, but the high dividend yield makes this worth a look. I’ll be adding this to my Jubak Picks Dividend Portfolio next  week.
February 1, 2024 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, MSFT, Top 50 Stocks, Videos |
Today’s video is Microsoft Shows Priced to Perfection Risks. This quarter, the company reported Tuesday,  Azure, its cloud services flagship, grew revenue by 30% last year. While a 30% growth rate would be a great for many companies, Wall Street and analysts were disappointed in this news from Microsoft. This is the “priced to perfection” problem. Although the company beat earnings estimates, beat revenue estimates, and showed 30% growth in a key part of the company, the stock went down. Maybe a $3 trillion market cap on Microsoft is a lot of weight to push up hill. We could see more of this during this earnings season as Amazon, Apple and Meta release their own reports. The “Magnificent Seven” that were responsible for most of the 24% gain in the S&P in 2023 are beginning to wobble. My hope was for more market leaders to emerge but that doesn’t seem to be happening. I don’t expect “wobble” to cause anything that terrible in the market, but a sideways move is likely as investors ponder their next move.
January 29, 2024 | Daily JAM, F, GM, Mid Term, TSLA, Videos |
Today’s Trend of the Week video is Bad News from Tesla is even worse news for other electric vehicle companies. On January 24, after the close, Tesla announced a slight miss on their earnings report. Guidance was rather sparse but grim. Sales grew at about 38% in 2023, well below the 50% target that Tesla regularly touts. The 2024 guidance is even below that, (Wall Street estimates 24%). While this isn’t great for Tesla, it’s much worse for companies like Ford, GM and Volkswagen who are trying to figure out how much to spend and when to build market share for electric vehicles. The companies have been using estimates based on Tesla likely prices and profit margins in order to build their own projectors for their own profitability in  electric vehicles. Those estimates, thanks to recent guidance from Tesla, appear to badly outdated, especially if Tesla is considering cutting prices again. Now companies like GM and Ford will have to decide how much pain, and for how long, they’re willing to take in order to get into this market.
January 28, 2024 | Daily JAM, Videos |
Today’s Quick Pick is ASML Holding (ASML). ASML Holding is a chip equipment maker, specializing in high-end ultraviolet lithography. The stock released an impressive earnings report on Tuesday which sent the stock up 8.5% on that day. It’s up about 18% since I recommended the stock back in December. However, please remember, chip stocks and especially chip equipment stocks are cyclicals. They do well when demand is high, and then dip back down when demand is low. We’re currently in a big up cycle for chips with demand for new AI chips continuing to rise. ASML expects 2024 to maintain that upward swing and the stock is rising as expected. The thing I want to point out is how we know cyclical PEs to behave. The highest point for a cyclical PE tends to be down at the bottom, and as the stock goes up, the PE should go down. At the moment, the market is not at all focused on fundamentals and what we’re seeing is cyclical stocks trading like growth stocks. ASML is not a growth (forever) stock, but it’s currently trading at a PE of 39, the same as Microsoft, a definite growth stock (for comparison). There will be a top for ASML, it may not be 2024 but make sure you’re looking at fundamentals even if no one else in the market is.
January 25, 2024 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Videos |
Today’s video is Too Far, Too Fast. Yesterday, on January 24, the market hit Wall Street’s consensus 2024 target for the end of 2024. Yep, a bit early. The consensus target for the end of the year 2024 close is an average of 4867 and yesterday the S&P closed at 4868. The median target is 4950, and the high end forecast is around 5200–only 350 points from where we are. We’re still awaiting confirmation that the Fed will cut rates and when that happens (likely in June or July–not March), more money will come into the market. This mid-year injection of money is good, but how much of a reward is there in a market that may have already reached its target for 11 months from now? At this point, investors are chasing momentum in an attempt to make up for missing the mark in 2023. That leaves the market  risky at the moment. There’s not a whole lot of reward in a market that moves sideways with very few big moves on the up side. We may very well finish the year flat from these levels.
January 21, 2024 | Daily JAM, Videos |
Today’s stock pick of the week is Merck, (MRK). Merck’s “problem” is that one of its biggest revenue streams comes from Keytruda, an oncology drug that will be going off-patent in 2028. In 2023, Merck projected new oncology drugs would bring in an additional $10 billion to replace Keytruda’s revenue. At this year’s JPMorgan healthcare conference, the company’s projection was even higher at $20 billion by the 2030s.
January 18, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Videos |
Today’s video is Exogenous Factors: Middle East and Taiwan. The market has been focused on earnings and the Fed as of late, but, there are a lot of big  exogenous factors that should also be on the radar. Two of those factors are Taiwan and the Middle East.
