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Apple fails to convince Wall Street on growth in hardware revenue at September 12 product announcement
Apple (AAPL) introduced two new models of its top of the line iPhone X, the iPhone Xs and the iPhone Xs Max, plus a new phone, the iPhone XR, an update on the iPhone 7 and iPhone 8, plus a new Series 4 version of its Apple Watch today, September 12. Wall Street, which...
More trade sanctions today–this time it’s Russia (with big implications for global oil supply)
The United States has imposed new sanctions on Russia as punishment for that country's use of nerve agents in a March 4 attack on former spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter in the United Kingdom. The sanctions are required under the 1991 Chemical and Biological...
Is 10-year yield above 3% finally here to stay? U.S. Treasury raises targets for debt sales in second half of 2018
Yesterday the Treasury Department said that it will raise long-term debt issuance to $78 billion this quarter. That would be an increase from the $73 billion in sales last quarter and the third consecutive quarterly increase. The increased sales of Treasury debt are...
Is a dip in home sales a “canary in a coal mine” for economy?
Existing home sales fell 0.6% month-over-month in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.38 million. The consensus among economists surveyed by Briefing.com called for an annual rate of 5.45 million units. The May sales rate was revised down to a 5.41 million...
Trade war? What trade war? We’re back to the earnings rally today
U.S. stocks closed up on the fifth day out of the last six on a belief that Chinese rhetoric signaled a withdrawal from an immediate confrontation with the United States over trade. The shift wasn't huge. Chinese officials continued to stress that the government will...
Inflation, as measured by headline CPI, up 2.9% year over year
Headline inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, was up 0.1% in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning. That was below the 0.2% increase expected by economists surveyed by Briefing.com. It did, however, bring growth in headline...
Trick or trend: Market gains on a trade-war Friday–test ahead!
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series ( actually running on Saturday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. On past...
An interest rate sign of our times–3% on a CD
So there I was, minding my own business, walking down Broadway in my neighborhood, and what do I see in the window of a local bank: An offer for 3% on a five-year CD. Now this wasn't in the window of one of the megabanks that dominate this sector in New York. But it...
Today the market is cutting risk ahead of possible G7 turmoil
Yesterday the story was that the market rallied on belief/hope that the leaders of the Group of 7 economies due to meet on Friday and Saturday of this week would not allow trade tensions to escalate into a full born trade war. Today it looks like investors and traders...
Today markets don’t care about trade or tariffs–but what about if the G7 meeting explodes this Friday?
The Group of 7–Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States–is scheduled to meet on Friday, June 8, and Saturday June 9 to discuss, in theory, global economic growth. In reality, the group will discuss trade, U.S. tariffs, and U.S President Donald Trump’s trade policies.
Special Report on Investing in a Late Cycle Market Part 2: Sell offs in Late Cycle Markets are contagious, very contagious
The big reason to distinguish the business cycle from the credit cycle–as I did in Part 1 of this Special Report “Investing in a Late Cycle Market: Late Cycle Markets are crazy–Part 1, The problem”–is that the disruption caused by late credit cycle markets is way more contagious globally than the disruption created by late business cycle markets.
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