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OECD projects global economy to shrink by 6% this year, worse than World Bank’s 5.2% forecast on Monday
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the developed world's economic think tank, today forecast that the global economy would shrink by 6% this year. (OECD members accounted for 62% of global GDP in 2017.) That conclusion is based on a scenario in...
An important message on risk from the options market–don’t trust the rally in crushed stocks
Prices on options market are saying that there's an awful lot of risk in some of the stocks that have soared the most in the rally of the last few weeks. Buyer beware! at this point. On Friday, when stocks soared on the May jobs report surprise, I went fishing in the...
Trick or Trend: Warning signs for the economy in Friday’s consumer spending report
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Saturday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. In April...
Can stocks now count on a Trump Put?
I think we witnessed the birth of a Trump Put on the stock market in today's Rose Garden press event that investors and traders can pin beside their terminals along with the Powell Put from the Federal Reserve. Ahead of what had been billed as an announcement from...
So this is volatility! Don’t beat yourself up if you don’t get each day right
On Wednesday, I felt really stupid. I don't believe in this rally. I still think we're due for the bear to come roaring back. And I think the bottom in this market is still somewhere ahead. But on Wednesday April 29, I felt completely WRONG. The Standard & Poor's...
Just a reminder: weekly report on new claims for unemployment tomorrow
The projections from economists are that the total initial claims for unemployment will fall to 4.5 million for the week ended on April 18. That would still be a horrendous number. The total weekly figure at the beginning of this spike was 280,000. Last week, 5.25...
Oil plunges on futures market on panic over expiring May futures contract
Warning: This is going to be a little "insider baseball. As of 1:30 p.m. the quoted price on Bloomberg of U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate was 80.02% to $3.65 a barrel. On the other hand, international benchmark Brent crude was down"just" 5.80% to $26.45 a...
Here’s why I’m so worried about coronavirus in developing economies: Nigeria’s new coronavirus intervention fund is just $1.2 billion
Nigeria has now reported 232 cases of the coronavirus and five deaths. In an effort to control the virus, Nigeria has restricted all movement and ordered businesses and offices closed in Lagos and Abuja, the country's to main cities, for an initial two weeks. Nigeria...
Buying Puts on Brazil ETF on today’s emerging market rally and worsening coronavirus recession in Brazil.
I understand why U.S. and European stocks are up so strongly today on news that the rate of new infections is dropping in Spain and Italy and that New York looks to be on a similar path with a possible peak in coronavirus cases sometime in the next week to 10 days....
Buying JPMorgan Chase Puts ahead of next week’s bank earnings reports and guidance
As I wrote in yesterday's Saturday Night Quarterback, I'm buying to Puts on bank stocks tomorrow, Monday April 6, ahead of bank earnings reports that begin with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) before the market open on Tuesday April 14. I think banks will...
Market climbs on 6.65 million new claims for unemployment? Buying Starbucks Puts
Okay, I simply don't understand how the government could report 6.65 million new claims for unemployment in the week ended March 28--up from 3.31 million (revised) the week before--and stocks climb. As of 11:15 a.m. New York time the Standard & Poor's 500 was up...Jim’s Stock Alerts
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