Z-SYMBOLS
August 10, 2022 | Daily JAM, TSLA, Volatility |
The long-term case for buying Tesla (TSLA) is easy to make (or easy to argue.) The company has created electric vehicle technology that delivers faster speeds, longer range, and greater efficiency than any of its emerging competitors. The company has done a superlative job of building out its global supply chain so that it has suffered less disruption due to raw material glitches or chip shortages than any of its competitors. The big long-term questions for Tesla are Can it drive costs out of its production system? and How long will it take for competitors to catch up with Tesla’s technology advantage? (Just for the record I come down on the “buy” Tesla side on these questions.) In the short term the buy/sell/hold case for Tesla is more complicated.
August 10, 2022 | AMD, Daily JAM, DAL, Jubak Picks, MLM |
Despite today’s CPI inflation bounce and the continuation (flagging but still in business) of July’s Bear Market rally, my goal is still to sell into rallies. I don’t think this Bear Market is over and done with. I see another down leg when investors and traders admit that the Federal Reserve isn’t going to be able to get inflation under control with just another 100 basis points of interest rate increases (and, the other part of this hopeful scenario, to begin cutting interest rates by the middle of 2023.) So I’ll be making three sells today out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio to take advantage of the CPI bounce.
August 9, 2022 | Daily JAM, NVDA, Volatility |
It’s hard making a profit on volatility trades in a market that’s as volatile as this one.
You’ve got to get the direction right, the timing, and the price. Miss one and get the other two and you can still wind up in the red. Which is where I find myself on the Nvidia Put Options (NVDA220819P00165000) I bought in my Volatility Portfolio on July 22 with a strike of $165 and an expiration date of August 19.
August 9, 2022 | AMAT, AMD, Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Top 50 Stocks |
First, it was Nvidia (NVDA) cutting its guidance for revenue and earnings due on August 24. Today, August 9, it was Micron Technology (MU) warning that its revenue for the fourth-quarter revenue may come in at or below the bottom end of a forecast range provided in the company’s earnings call on June 30. Micron is scheduled to report on September 27. All this comes as the market is on edge anyway ahead of tomorrow’s report on CPI inflation. As of the close on Tuesday, August 9, shares of Micro Technology were down 3.74%. Shares of Nvidia were down another 3.97% after closing down 6.30% yesterday.
August 8, 2022 | CHPT, Daily JAM, Volatility |
As I referenced in my post “What to sell and when in this Bear Market Rally,” I’m applying the old Wall Street advice of buy on the rumor and sell on the news to electric vehicle charging stocks. Specifically to ChargePoint Holdings (CHPT)Like just about any stock associated with controlling global climate change, ChargePoint soared ahead on the surprise deal that revived “green spending” in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. There’s money in that bill for promoting electric vehicles and for solar and wind power. (And let’s not forget big bucks for hydrogen power, too.) That bill has now passed the Senate (amazingly) and looks almost certain to pass the House of Representatives, where Speak Nancy Pelosi can, I think, be counted on to hold her slim majority together. Which means all that potential spending good news for stocks in this sector is now out there.
August 8, 2022 | Daily JAM, TSLA, Volatility |
Finally, on Friday, August 5, in documents filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission Tesla put dates to the split its 3/1 split
August 8, 2022 | Daily JAM, Friday Trick or Trend, Morning Briefing, UUP, Volatility |
In the last week, as odds have climbed of a 75-basis-point interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve at its September 22 meeting, the U.S. dollar has reversed its slide during the last two weeks of July.
Stands to reason. Higher U.S. interest rates make dollar-denominated assets, such as Treasuries, more attractive. More dollar buying, stronger dollar.
August 5, 2022 | COP, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, PXD |
I’ve seen several comments on the site asking this question. I assume we’re talking about oil stocks in the short- and medium-term. In the long term, I think it’s clear that you should be thinking about selling these out of your portfolio at a profit (of course) whenever you can. Demand for oil will fall in the long-term–defining long-term as 5 years or more–or we can all count on figuring out how to survive 120-degree (Fahrenheit) heat. Today, August 5, is a good synopsis of what’s going on with oil and oil stocks in the short- and medium-term.
August 5, 2022 | CMI, Daily JAM, Dividend Income, Jubak Picks, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-sixty-fourth YouTube video “Quick Pick Cummins Part 3” went up today. I’m returning to my pick Cummins (CMI) because the company just released strong second-quarter earnings. What caught my eye is that besides not affirming guidance for the rest of 2022, the company reported growth in gross margins and operating margins at a time when many companies are feeling squeezed.
August 3, 2022 | COP, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, PXD |
As of 2 p.m. New York time today, August 3, U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude was down 3.30% to $91.30 a barrel. International benchmark Brent fell 3.07% to $97.45 a barrel.
The drop was a result of Wednesday data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showing that U.S. crude and gasoline inventories unexpectedly rose last week. U.S. crude supplies were up 4.5 million barrels in the week ended July 29, while gasoline supplies rose 200,000 barrels. This comes at a time when gasoline inventories usually fall on high seasonal demand. This report was, for the day, more than enough to offset the announcement of a smaller than expected increase in oil production by OPEC+ of just 100,000 barrels a day for September.
July 28, 2022 | AG, Daily JAM, Volatility |
My one-hundred-and-sixty-first YouTube video “Quick Pick First Majestic Silver” went up today. This hasn’t been a great year for precious metals hedges. However, allow me to make the case for First Majestic Silver (AG), given the coming recession and my expectations for the Fed’s schedule of rate increases. A hedge for 2023? At the current price, it’s an attractive bit of insurance against a big surge in risk.
July 28, 2022 | CMG, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks |
In yesterday’s YouTube video I explained that a recession works by peeling the sock market onion. With each step down in the economy, more stocks report negative surprises or issue negative guidance. Investors and traders sell those stocks–Snap (SNAP) for example fell 39% in the day–and buy the shares of companies that have, for the moment, shown the ability to dodge the economic bullet. (So Alphabet (GOOG) climbs 6.47% when it reports that advertising revenue hasn’t dipped as much as the Snap results threatened. But I pointed out, each time the recession peels away a layer of the stock market onion, it leaves fewer and fewer stocks on the “safe buy” side. And if the recession gets deep enough, many of these safe buys will wind up showing the same problems as earlier hit their sector peers. So tomorrow, Friday, July 29, I’ll be selling shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio.
