Today, I’m going to review the fundamental case for Wyndham shares (the reason I added it to Jubak Picks on March 17) and give you the details on the Call Option on Wyndham that I’ll be adding to my Volatility Portfolio tomorrow.
This week will bring positioning for what’s looking like a record quarter for earnings growth for the first quarter of 2021 that’s likely to keep the stock market trend pointing upward. The first earnings report for the quarter are due from the big banks on April 14 and 15.
On April 1 FactSet reported that the bottom-up analyst earnings projection for the stocks in the Standard & Poor’s 500 for the first quarter had climbed 6% as the quarter itself progressed. That’s the biggest increase in analyst projections since FactSet began tracking quarterly bottom-up earnings estimates in the second quarter of 2002. Normally, analyst estimates slip downwards as the quarter progresses with the average decrease of the last five years at 4.2%
What we’re looking at the the possibility of an almost unbelievable surge in earnings in the first quarter of 2021, the second quarter, and for the whole year–caused by year-to-year comparisons with the pandemic recession in these quarters of 2020.
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The seventeenth YouTube video “3 picks for earnings” went up today.
U.S. banks that pass their next stress tests will be allowed to raise their dividends after June 30, the Federal Reserve said today, March 25. The Fed will also lift any remaining restrictions on stock buybacks.
A couple of weeks before Christmas, Disney (DIS) decided that the pandemic coast would be clear enough by May for it to send Black Widow, the next Marvel universe potential blockbuster–to movie theaters in May. Not so far, the company has now decided. With rates of infection rising again across the country, Disney has decided to push the theatrical release of Black Widow, starring Scarlett Johansson, to July.
Tomorrow, March 24, I’m going to add another hedge against a drop in stock prices, one that’s a more general market hedge against a more general market decline. The hedge is the September 17 Put Option (which goes up in price as the share price goes down) on the small cap Russell 2000 Index using the iShares MSCI Russell 2000 ETF.
Today I’m adding a second 10 stocks–to the 10 already listed–to the Dip-O-Meter. I’m tracking all 20 looking for buy on the dip opportunities. My take after today’s (March 23) action is not quite yet
You’ve read this story before (in fact many times before) in the last month or so. Tech stocks rebounded after a day or two of selling. What was different (because it wasn’t a case of rotation but a continuation of a recent trend) was the continued drop in the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) to 18.88, a decrease of 9.88%
Shares of MGM Resorts International (MGM) are up 15.16% since I added them to my Jubak Picks Portfolio on February 11, 2021. I don’t think the gains are done for this casino and hotel stock. Today I’m raising my target price to $48 a share from the current $42
Today, March 15, shares of Marvell Technology Group (MRVL) closed at $48.08, slightly above my target price of $48 a share. In this very volatile market for technology stocks, I’m going to take my almost 20% profit (19.90% to be exact) and sell these shares out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio tomorrow, March 16. The profit came in less than two weeks from my March 6 buy.
Before you get too excited by that headline, note that a 30% hike in the dividend at Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) will bring the payout to just 13 cents for the first quarter of 2021. But that’s still, as my grandmother used to say, better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. At the least it’s a vote of confidence by the company’s board of directors that they see strong revenue and earnings growth in the year ahead. Wheaton Precious Metals doesn’t actually do any mining itself. Instead it purchases a stream of production from miners of precious metals and cobalt.
Let’s be clear. I don’t have any idea of when the current selling in technology and high-valuation growth momentum stocks will end. It does seem likely to me, even after the March 9 bounce, that the rotation into cyclicals, vaccine recovery stocks, and value stocks will continue for a while. From that perspective, I’m glad that I added Invesco KBWB Bank ETF (KBWB), Vulcan Materials (VMC), Caterpillar (CAT), MGM Resorts International (MGM) and Coca Cola (KO) to my Jubak Picks Portfolio since the middle of February. And that I added Dow (DOW) and Citigroup (C) to my Dividend Portfolio in Mid-December. (All those picks are in the black since my purchase date. You can check the online portfolios to see by how much.) But now that the NASDAQ Composite has dropped into an official correction–down 10% from its February 12 high–I’d like to be holding some more cash in case
