Watch my YouTube video: The rally narrows–or does it?
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My seventieth YouTube video “The rally narrows–or does it?” went up today.
Stocks get more extended–and riskier–in some not so obvious ways
In my YouTube video posted today I dismissed (pretty much) my worry that this rally was getting narrower and therefore closer to a nasty end. Nvidia (NVDA), up 8.85% at the close ) I noted had dragged a few chip stocks with it after the company reported a significant earnings beat and increase in guidance yesterday. For the day Qualcomm (QCOM) was up 1.63% and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) ahead 1.86%. But stocks as a whole didn’t join in and some recent bellwether stocks actually retreated with Coca-Cola (KO) off 0.96%, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) down 1.87%, and Disney (DIS) lower by 1.11%. Not good. What you’d like to see as more stocks join in–the rally gets broader–as prices go up if you’re looking for evidence that a rally might continue for a while. But, I noted in my video, not all is lost. Big tech stocks, which have largely been left on the sidelines in the rally, were up strongly today wit Amazon (AMZN) gaining 3.78% and Apple (AAPL) higher by 3.05%. If this group starts to participate the rally would be likely to have another leg. However, that’s not my only worry about this rally. I’m seeing evidence that the gains being racked up by stocks such as Nvidia, Qualcomm, and Apple are based on increasing vague speculation about trends that are way, way off in the future.
Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…
It’s BIG TECH earnings week with earnings from Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Facebook (FB) and Amazon (AMZN). Facebook kicks off earnings from this big tech group on Monday, October 25, after the close. Alphabet and Microsoft follow on Tuesday, October 26, after the close of trading with Amazon and Apple on Thursday October er 27 after the close. The stakes are high for these companies and their stocks and for the entire stock market.These five stocks account for almost 23% of the capitalization of the entire Standard & Poor’s 500. And the technology sector makes up 33% of the indexTo an extraordinary degree as goes the technology sector, so goes the market as a whole right now. And as these five stocks go, so does technology.
Watch my new YouTube Video: October Volatility for Tech Stocks
I'm starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again--this time using YouTube as a platform. My fifty-seco... To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing...
Watch my new YouTube video: “Amazon miss is a big deal…for all stocks”
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My forty-fourth YouTube video “Amazon miss is a big deal…for all stocks” went up today.
A trend? Retail sales fall in July but lots of one-off events
Retail sales dropped 1.1% in July, the Commerce Department reported today, August 17. Sales of furniture, sporting goods, building materials, cars and auto parts were all down strongly in the month. Sales at non-store retailers, which include e-commerce sales, dropped 3% in July.
Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Monday) says, For the week ahead expect…
I’m looking for answers to two big questions that earnings from Amazon (AMZN) and Caterpillar (CAT) left us with last week. In the case of Amazon, where the company reported a slide in revenue growth after a big bump in sales due to everybody ordering everything on line during the Pandemic shutdown, the question is What is the actual sales growth trend once you remove all the plus and minuses from the Pandemic? This isn’t a question just for Amazon, of course. It’s important for figuring out the valuation of everything from Las Vegas hotel and casino play MGM Resorts International (MGM) to streaming champion Netflix (NFLX) to Starbucks (SBUX). The other question left hanging at the end of the week is whether or not we’re about to see a string of companies forecasting lower margins due to rising prices for raw materials. That was the takeaway message from Caterpillar’s (CAT) earnings report.
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
I hope it’s no surprise to you–I’ve been yammering away on this topic for the last two weeks after all–but next week is a big week for earnings from bellwether tech companies. The market reaction to those earnings will determine whether the current earnings based rally goes on for a while or if, instead, we get a sell on the news retreat. Tuesday, April 27, is the first big day with Apple (AAPL), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) all reporting.
Market looks to be setting up for next week’s tech earnings parade
The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed up 0.20% today, July 22. The Dow Jones Industrial Average squeezed out a 0.07% gain. But if you were looking for bigger upside moves, turn your eyes to the technology sector.
Investors buy the dip; Delta variant is forgotten for a day
Today investors and traders ran to buy all the re-opening, post-vaccine recovery, cyclical stocks that they dumped yesterday. Macy’s (M) is up 4.29% as of 3:30 p.m. New York time after plunging 4.90% yesterday. Amusement park operator Cedar Fair (FUN) is up 4.12%. Cyclical Dupont (DD) is up 1.34% after closing down 4.46% yesterday. Carnival Cruise (CCL) is ahead 7.83% today after dropping 5.74% yesterday. It’s as if the market has decided that the really scary upward trend in new infections from the spread of the Delta variant is done with and over. Pandemic yesterday. No pandemic today.. The figures from the pandemic front say otherwise. The 14-day change in new cases as of July 19 is 198%. The 14-day change in new deaths is 44%.
Stocks extend growth fears, selling today–how far does this go?
Today, Monday, July 19, stocks accelerated their retreat from the end of last week on fears that a fourth wave of the pandemic, fueled by the Delta variant, will crush hopes that the economy is headed back to normal. As of the close New York the Standard & Poor’s 500 was down 1.59% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was lower by 2.09%. The NASDAQ Composite was off 1.06% and the NASDAQ 100 had dropped 0.90%. The small cap Russell 2000 had fallen 1.51% and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) was down 1.68%. For the day at least you can see the market’s fears accurately reflected in the list of stocks falling most heavily.
Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…
Investors and traders will be looking to the first batch of earnings from big banks on Tuesday and Wednesday to answer two big questions: 1. Will earnings show the huge 65% year over year growth now expected by Wall Street analysts? 2. Will investors and traders sell on the news or push stocks higher on hoped for more economic (and earnings growth) to come? But I think w’ll have to wait until the week of July 27 to get answers to those queries.
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