September 28, 2018 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
I don't think there's anything more important to financial markets--well, assuming we don't get some kind of completely off-the-wall black swan event--over the next three months or so than the strength or weakness of the dollar. My judgment on trends in the greenback...
September 26, 2018 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, You Might Have Missed |
No surprise on a September interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve today--but some very aggressive signals on policy into 2019. The 25 basis point increase today raised the Fed Funds rate to a target of 2% to 2.25%. The economy remains solid; Â job growth has...
September 25, 2018 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Special Reports |
Part 1: Getting ready for an emerging markets bounce All the portents (You know, sightings of white seabirds on the left as the king rides to the hunt, the witches of Endor issuing a "buy"call, strange voices in the darkest night near the swamps of the dead behind...
September 24, 2018 | BABA, Daily JAM, FCX, Mid Term, SCCO, TCEHY, Volatility, ZNH |
Let's not overthink this, okay? In my post on Friday "Get ready for an emerging markets bounce" I laid out the case for believing that the emerging markets crisis is about to yield to an emerging markets bounce that could last weeks or even run through the end of...
September 20, 2018 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
All the portents (You know, sightings of white seabirds on the left as the king rides to the hunt, the witches of Endor issuing a "buy"call, strange voices in the darkest night near the swamps of the dead behind Aunt Tillie's house) are falling into place for a solid...
September 19, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Just hours after the Trump administration announced 10% tariffs on an additional $200 billion in Chinese exports, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said the nation wouldn’t devalue its currency in order to make its exports more competitive. Which, of course, doesn't mean the...
September 18, 2018 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Talk about frustratingly lagging data. China’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries fell to a six-month low in July, according to the latest data from the Treasury Department released today. The first found of U.S. tariffs went into effect on July 6. China’s ownership of U.S....
September 14, 2018 | Daily JAM, Notes You Need |
In my daily trawling through the market I come upon lots of tidbits of knowledge that I think are important to investors but that don't justify a full post. I've decided to start compiling these notes here each day in a kind of running mini blog that I'm calling Notes...
September 13, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
The dollar is down today against the euro and some emerging market currencies, such as the Turkish lira, are rallying. The news ostensibly behind the move is some data indicating that U.S. inflation slipped in August. The logic goes that with inflation sliding the...
September 8, 2018 | Daily JAM |
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series ( actually running on Saturday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. Yields on...
September 4, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
In the Greek debt crisis it was relatively easy to track the exposure of national financial markets and banks to the crisis. The big issue was what non-Greek banks had bought the biggest share of Greek government bonds. In the current emerging market crisis, it's...
August 31, 2018 | Daily JAM |
The bad news is that the emerging market crisis that has sent financial markets plummeting in Argentina, Turkey, and Brazil has added India and Indonesia to its list of victims. The good news is that the inclusion of India and Indonesia is exactly what analysts and...