January 23, 2023 | Daily JAM, Videos |
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-twenty-seventh YouTube video: Trend of the Week Speculation and Investing This week’s Trend of the Week: Speculation and Investing. Prior to the bank earnings and guidance numbers being released a week ago, the market was on the upswing on speculation that the Federal Reserve would indicate it would be winding down the interest rate hikes. Then, as the disappointing bank guidance numbers were released, there was a brief period of selling, not huge selling that morning, but enough to make a dent in the indexes. However, by that same afternoon, the market had returned to its prior upward trend on speculation on the Fed’s shift in rate increases was a better bet than the bank’s suggestion that there may be a recession. In other words, investors and traders decided to buy the speculative trend rather than worry about earnings numbers and guidance. This is a trend I’ll be following as stocks like Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) start to set the tone for 2023. Will investors be concerned with decreased year-over-year earnings, or will they lean into the speculation that the Fed will slow interest rates and therefore move the market upward?
January 18, 2023 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, MSFT, Top 50 Stocks |
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-twenty-fifth YouTube video: Get Ready for the Tech Earnings Flood. This week is a bit of a breather. Last week ended with bank earnings and next week begins the flood of tech stock earnings. This week we’ve got Alcoa, which used to be a market indicator but that is no longer the case (thankfully, since Wall Street estimates have them at a loss of $.75 for this quarter.) Netflix is up next on Thursday, January 19. Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) will show +$.44 this quarter versus +$1.33 last year at this time. I think this will likely be the trend with tech stocks. Lower earnings and slower revenue growth year-over-year. 2022 has been tough for technology companies and earnings will likely be lower for the fourth quarter than in 2021. Look closely at future estimates and guidance. Where are they going from here? (the bad news for the fourth quarter is widely expected.) Microsoft will report earnings on January 24, shortly after announcing it will be laying off 10,000 employees. After that, we’ll get Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), on January 26, and then the floodgates open with more and more technology companies announcing earnings and setting the tone for the stock market at the start of 2023.
October 23, 2022 | AAPL, AMZN, CAT, Daily JAM, EQNR, GOOG, Morning Briefing, MSFT, PXD |
Earnings. Earnings. And more earnings. From the big bellwether technology stocks: Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Alphabet. Wall Street has already slashed earnings forecast for these stocks so there’s a good chance these companies will report earnings that surpass expectations even if only by a few pennies. By and large, though, these reports will show either an absolute drop from the September quarter of 2021 or, at best, a slowing of revenue and earnings growth. Key to the market’s reaction will be what these companies say about expectations for the next quarter or two. Will they emphasize what are already clear slowdowns in PC and smartphone sales? Will they speak to the elephant in the room–the U.S/China trade war? Will they say that a strong dollar plus inflation is cutting into sales outside the United States and U.S. sales to domestic customers who are showing signs of “price fatigue”?
May 3, 2022 | AMD, Daily JAM, Volatility |
After the close on May 3, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reported first-quarter earnings of $1.13 a share, excluding some items. Wall Street analysts had projected earnings of 92 cents a share for the quarter. Sales rose 71% to $5.9 billion, topping projections of $5.3 billion. The results pushed shares up 9.10% in trading on May 4.
April 29, 2022 | AMZN, Daily JAM, Top 50 Stocks, Videos |
My one-hundredth-and-twenty-seventh YouTube video “Lessons from Amazon” went up today. In this video I’m looking at Amazon’s (AMZN) earnings report after hours on April 28. The company delivered its first quarterly loss in 7 years. The shares closed down 14.05% the next day. I think that the questions Amazon is facing are important across the economy as we emerge from a Pandemic. For example, looking at Pandemic sales trends do you invest in fulfillment and shipping infrastructure to maintain consumer expectations for quick delivery or do you hold back on spending on the likelihood that post-Pandemic trends will revert to lower pre-Pandemic patterns? Amazon’s decision to invest in building out fulfillment, and its flat sales numbers, led to this quarterly loss. Other companies such as Uber, DoorDash, Netflix, Peloton, and Starbucks face the same issues going forward.
April 27, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Top 50 Stocks, V, You Might Have Missed |
After hours on Tuesday, April 26, Visa (V) reported earnings of $1.70 a share. That modestly beat analyst projections of $1.65 a share for the quarter. But it was a big jump from the $1.35 a share in the first quarter of 2021. Visa’s shares were up 6.47% on Wednesday. Visa is a member of my Jubak Picks Portfolio where it is up 239.26% since I added it to that list on November 15, 2015. As of April 28 I’m raising the target price on Visa in Jubak’s Picks to $266 from the prior target of $194. I will also add the stock to my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio.
April 27, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, MSFT |
On Tuesday, April 26, Microsoft (MSFT) reported net income of $16.73 billion or $2.22 share for the company’s fiscal third quarter. That was up from net income of $15.46 billion or $2.03 a share in the third quarter of fiscal 2021. Wall Street analysts had projected earnings of $2.19. The company reported revenue of $49.36 billion in the third quarter, compared with $41.7 billion a year earlier. Wall Street was looking for revenue of $49.05 billion. For the fiscal year that starts on July 1 Microsoft forecast double-digit revenue growth. The company’s shares closed up 4.81% on Wednesday, April 27. Microsoft is a member of my Jubak Picks Portfolio where it is up 179.25% from my initial buy on June 4, 2018. As of April 27 I’m raising my target price on Microsoft to $352 a share from the prior $155.
February 5, 2022 | AMZN, Daily JAM, Top 50 Stocks |
The story to end last week was Amazon’s (AMZN) big earnings surprise on Thursday. Fourth-quarter sales increased 9.4% to $137.4 billion. Profit was $27.75 a share, aided largely by a pretax gain from the company’s investment in Rivian, which went public in November. Analysts, on average, projected revenue of $137.8 billion and earnings of $3.77 a share. (I’d note that the $22.75 a share in earnings and the projected $3.77 are not comparable due to that huge one-time gain from the Rivian IPO.) Wall Street was especially impressed by the performance of Amazon Web Services, the company’s cloud-computing division. AWS recorded sales of $17.8 billion, a 40% year-over-year increase, and operating profit of $5.29 billion. Adverting revenue for the quarter was was $9.7 billion, a 32% increase from a year earlier. Wall Street also gushed about the company’s decision to raise the price of its Amazon Prime membership by $20 a year to $139
October 19, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Today, October 19, Procter & Gamble (PG) reported fiscal year first quarter earnings of $1.61 against Wall Street projections of $1.59. (That’s down 1% from the first quarter of the prior fiscal year.) Sales grew to $20.34 billion versus Wall Street expectations of $19.89 billion. Organic revenue growth was 4% against Wall Street expectations for 2.1%. So as the close today of the stock is down 1.18%. And the results today are seen as disappointing. To figure out why, look beyond those top of the report numbers to the squeeze on margins from higher raw materials costs and from rising expenses for shipping.
April 27, 2021 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, MSFT |
Great wasn’t good enough for a stock that had climbed 10.6% in the last month, 17.84% for 2021 as of the close on April 26, and 51.07% in the last year. And Microsoft shares fell in after-hours trading after reporting earnings and revenue above Wall Street estimates. Does the drop set the stage for other BIG TECH stock reporting this week–Alphabet (GOOG) today, Apple (AAPL) and Facebook (FB) tomorrow, and Amazon (AMZN) on Thursday.
February 6, 2021 | Daily JAM, Friday Trick or Trend |
Wall Street analysts have increased their 2021 forecast for S&P 500 earnings by 3.6% to $170.3 a share in January. That’s the biggest jump in earnings estimates in January for any year dating back to 2013 except the revisions in 2018 on the heels of the December 2017 tax cuts. Of course, a good part of this higher estimate is already figured into stock prices.
July 18, 2020 | Daily JAM, Short Term, You Might Have Missed |
...exciting times. And while that's fun (to some people, I hear) on a roller coaster, it's not going to be fun this week as investors try to figure out how to play three big news trends. First (because it's simpler and not because it's necessarily most important)...
