Officially, U.S. government debt passes total U.S. GDP
In January, the Congressional Budget Office forecast that total U.S. government debt would hit 100% of GDP around 2030. At that point U.S. debt stood at about $17 trillion or roughly 80% of GDP. So much for that forecast. As of the end of June, U.S. government debt...
Deflation or a spike in inflation in 2020-21: A tale of two fatter-than-expected tails
The financial market consensus on inflation is pretty obvious: For 2020 and 2021, the U.S. economy will see modest inflation, maybe 1.5% to 1.75%. That would be significantly below the Federal Reserve's inflation goal of 2% or so. And that gap would keep the Fed...
Inflation continues to fall; deflation a possibility
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said annualized inflation across the group of 37 advanced economies slowed to 1.7% in March from 2.3% in February. That's the biggest deceleration since the 2008 global financial crisis. Energy prices fell by...
Gold in ETFs nears record; what’s next for the yellow metal?
Gold held by ETFs (exchange-traded funds) hit the highest level in seven years on Tuesday as investors and traders piled into the traditional hedge against uncertainty and stock market volatility. Worldwide gold holdings in ETFs rose to 2,561.2 tons as of Tuesday, the...
There’s no inflation, the Federal Reserve says. You feel that’s wrong–and know what? You’re actually right
Two days after the last Federal Reserve meeting on December 11--where they told us again that inflation continues to fall below the Fed's 2% threshold and that, therefore, there's no inflation to worry about--I walked into my favorite New York bagel shop, Absolute...
India’s central bank flashes warning sign for all global financial markets
Of course, the Reserve Bank of India didn't mean to issue a warning to all global financial markets. The minutes of the central bank's December 3-5 meeting, released today, focus on the need to hold its benchmark interest rate at 5.15% after delivering 135 basis...
Inflation isn’t exactly dead
Wall Street is counting on the Federal Reserve to stay on the sidelines until September and then resume cutting interest rates. Some big money advisors are even counting on the Fed to cut interest rates again before September. Bloomberg ran an interview this morning...
Is that inflation we see?
The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, picked up in May by 0.2% from April. That took the annual inflation rate to 1.6%. That was just above the median estimate from economists surveyed by Bloomberg and...
Economy added surprisingly strong 263,000 jobs in April; wage gains, labor participation are red flags
The U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs in April. (The March jobs number was revised downward.) The gains for April exceeded all estimates from economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The official unemployment rate fell to 3.6%. In March the Federal Reserve had forecast that...
Fed lesson today: Don’t count your interest rate cuts before they hatchet
Stocks, bonds, and President Donald Trump were disappointed today when the Federal Reserve left interest rates alone and said that low inflation could be transitory. There's no reason to either raise or lower interest rates at the moment, Fed chair Jerome Powell said...
Has President Trump talked himself into a box with his Fed criticism?
The Federal Reserve speaks today at 2 p.m. on inflation, interest rates, and the economy. Ahead of our efforts to parse the prose, it's worth taking a minute to think about the likelihood that President Donald Trump's very public criticism of the Fed has molded the...Jim’s Stock Alerts
Download Jim’s eBook for Free
