In my Quick Pick video Update just posted, I noted that I would be buying shares of travel booking global marketshare leader (or co-leader) Booking Holdings (BKNG) tomorrow, Friday, April 22 in my Jubak Picks Portfolio. I’m setting an initial target price of $2,800 a shar
In this post let me take another step back to look at the one of the larger economic forces revealed by the Netflix miss. I’d argue that the Nexflix miss should put pricing power and questions of what price increases will hurt demand up near the top of your stock picking check list. Especially since the streaming service’ loss of 200,000 subscribers this quarter and the ported loss of 2 million subscribers next quarter qualifies as just the first shoe to drop.
Delta Air Lines (DAL) reported a smaller than expected first quarter loss today and shares rose strongly after the company said a strong rebound in summer traffic would turn results positive in the second quarter. As of noon New York time Delta shares were up 4.51%. The airline lost $1.23 a share, slightly less than the Wall Street consensus of a $1.27 a share loss
Just want to make sure that no one missed the sell recommendations in yesterday’s Saturday Night Quarterback post. Big banks will kick off another earnings season beginning with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) on Wednesday, April 13. Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) follow on April 14. Bank of America (BAC) reports on April 18. Bank earnings forecasts present a complicated picture for the quarter–which is only appropriate since that’s true of Standard & Poor’s 500 earnings forecasts as a whole.
As of 3 p.m. New York time Monday, April 11, airline stocks were rallying strongly ahead of Delta Air Lines (DAL) earnings report Wednesday morning. Delta shares were up 4.68%. Shares of American Airlines (AAL) had gained 3.04%. And United Airlines Holdings (UAL) was ahead 1.72%.
Big banks will kick off another earnings season beginning with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) on Wednesday, April 13. Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) follow on April 14. Bank of America (BAC) reports on April 18. Bank earnings forecasts present a complicated picture for the quarter–which is only appropriate since that’s true of Standard & Poor’s 500 earnings forecasts as a whole.
Tomorrow I will add shares of Walmart (WMT) to my Jubak Picks Portfolio. The stock is one of the 12 “Recession Picks” in my current Special Report: A Recession is Coming–Three Portfolio Strategies for a Recession; and 12 Recession Stock Picks. Right now I think Walmart’s stock has three things going for it. And only one of those is explicitly linked to a recession, which makes it a great recession stock
A couple of days doesn’t a trend make, but the trading action in European wind stocks has caught my eye in the last week or so. Yesterday, Wednesday, March 30, wind turbine maker Vestas Wind Systems (VWDRY) gained 5.80%. That took the stock to a gain of 4.60% in the past week. The stock is down 2.26% for 2022 to date as of the March 30 close. Wind developer Orsted (DNNGY) was up 3.27% to bring its gain in the last week to 7.71%. The stock is down 3.88% for 2022 to date. With Europe looking to reduce its reliance on imports of Russian natural gas, increasing the region’s wind power capacity is one solution.
How does the lyric go (as sung by Albert King)? “If it wasn’t for bad luck, I would have no luck at all.” Maybe that song should be the theme song for the global food market right now. This month China’s agriculture minister Tang Renjian told colleagues at a high-profile government meeting in Beijing this month: “China faces big difficulties in food production because of the unusual floods last autumn. Many faming experts and technicians told us that crop conditions this year could be the worst in history.”
Australia has banned alumina shipments to Russia in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The country is the source of 20% of the alumina used by Russia’s aluminum industry. Aluminum rose as much as 4.8% on the London Metal Exchange.The metal is now 25%for 2021. Shares of Alcoa (AA), which have been on a tear first on news of supply deficits and then on sanctions against Russian aluminum producers, gained 10.01% on Monday, March 21.
This week, my Quick Pick is Apple (AAPL). I wrote a post about a month ago, saying that Apple would be a stock to buy place ahead of its new product event on March 9 (and the traditional fall announcement of more new products.). And I think the reveal yesterday had promising new products likely to boost sales. There’s a new iPad Air, an improved iPhone SE (the cheapest iPhone), and new generations of Mac computers all with Apple’s new in-house M1 chip. The stock has fallen a bit so far this year, but hasn’t been hammered as much as other tech stocks, and I think the potential for huge sales of these new items make it a good holding over the next year.
Right now investors and traders are getting a crash course in how vulnerable global supply chains are to disruption–especially when they become really extended. And how a supply chain disruption can ripple out in unexpected directions thanks to the complexity of many key products.
First, the Pandemic took a hammer to the complicated logistical systems required to get Commodity A to Sub-assembler B in order to make Consumer good C that would show up for sale around the world. Just in time inventory, it turned out, didn’t work very well when nothing arrived on time. Second, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has–or at least it should have–reminded us that global supply chains can resemble Whack-A-Mole.
