May 31, 2021 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing, Special Reports |
Today’s installment includes one hedge (on the ViX) and one stock pick (Lam Research.) Now if you’ve been following along with the logic that I’ve laid out in this Special Report, you know that stocks face months of potential volatility around the Fed’s June 16 meeting (What will the Fed say about ending its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases?), the August global central bankers confab in Jackson Hole (Will the Fed use the occasion, as it has done in the past, to indicate a coming change in interest rate policy?), the Fed’s September 22 meeting (Will the Fed be content to say nothing with the next “important” meeting not until December?) and then the central bank’s December 15 meeting.) That’s a large number of occasions that could set the stock market to worrying again. And then, of course, there’s OPEC and the price of oil, the battle over the recently announced Biden budget, the continued logjam on infrastructure spending, and fact that the pandemic is still running at full speed in countries such as India (and who knows what the return of cold weather and forced winter “togetherness” will do to infection rates in the developed economies of the northern hemisphere.) At 16.74 on the VIX, you don’t need a panic to produce a profit on higher volatility. The VIX was at 22.18 on May 19. And then there are the even higher VIX levels of 27.59 on May 12, 28.57 on Marcy 4, and 28.89 on February 25.
May 16, 2021 | Daily JAM, DIS, Jubak Picks, Top 50 Stocks |
Shares of Disney (DIS) dropped like a stone when the company reported after the close on May 13 that subscriptions to its Disney+ streaming service fell short of Wall Street projections for the March quarter. The shares closed at $178.37 on May 13 before the report and then opened the next morning at $169.57. They recovered some ground during the day and closed at $173.70 on Friday, May 14, down another 2.60% on the day. I’ve been arguing recently and repeatedly that I think Disney is one of the best stocks to own for a post-vaccine recovery economy. Sure, the subscription gains for Disney+ are likely to slow now that we’re not all locked in our homes and going stir-crazy. But the company’s most profitable unit–the big entertainment parks have been just about shut down during the pandemic and the California parks just started to reopen at the very end of April. I see the drop on the March quarter results as a substantial buying opportunity.
April 12, 2021 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
Over the weekend I posted that I’d be looking at a possible buy of Call Options on the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) today–depending on how the VIX behaved in the Monday action. Today the VIX regained some of the ground that it gave up last week, closing ahead 1.92% to 1701 after closing at 16.69 on Friday. And I’m going to hold off on buying VIX Call Options until I see the trend in first quarter earnings reports.
February 4, 2021 | Daily JAM, Stock Alerts, Volatility, VXRT |
I thought there was a possibility that Vaxart (VXRT) would recover from yesterday’s 60% drop on data from the initial Phase 1 trials of its coronavirus-vaccine-in-a-pill candidate. Especially because the initial reaction over-emphasized, in my opinion, the negatives in that data. But I suspected that yesterday’s downward trend would continue for at least another day and therefore chose to sell Vaxart shares out of my Volatility Portfolio.
February 2, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
As of 3:15 p.m. today, February 2, in New York, shares of GameStop (GME)were down 56.22% to $98.50. That a big drop from the January 27 closing high of $347.51, but it’s still significantly above the $17.25 price on January 4. Other stocks that have ridden the Reddit WallStreetBets fever for short squeeze horses are down today too. AMC (AMC) is off 39.70% to $8.02. First Majestic Silver (AG), the big silver play of the last few days, has given up 24.28% to $16.75. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) is off 14.64% to $25.77. American Airlines (AAL), an early short squeeze play, slipped 1.16% to $17.65. The only potential short squeeze bet (if it was, that is) that’s still climbing is vaccine pill biotech Vaxart (VXRT), which was up 34.30% at 3:15 and looks to be riding momentum into the close. (The shares were up 54.43% as of 3:40 p.m.) Vaxart does bring this question to mind: So if the money is coming out of GameStop, etc., where is it going?
December 23, 2020 | Daily JAM, SBE, Special Reports |
So where are your profits going to come from in 2021 and indeed for the next 10 years? Not, I’d argue from a bounce in the consumer stocks that got crushed by the coronavirus pandemic shutdowns. For the next few months, I think you’ll be able to score big profits in airlines, retailers, restaurants and other stocks that have been hammered in the coronavirus economy. It’s already been quite a bounce. And there’s still more upside as coronavirus vaccines get rolled out.But after that? Pheh! Not in those sectors. Airlines haven’t shown a net profit during the life of the airline industry. The retail sector was “over-stored” even before the coronavirus. The restaurant sector was busy devouring its own young. And just how many chicken sandwiches can America eat? No, the really big long-term profits aren’t going to come from a bounce in distressed sectors. But from the invention of whole new products and industries and sectors. They’re going to come from electric cars, artificial intelligence, climate change, and distributed-work software to name just four big but already discernible future trends.
December 10, 2020 | Daily JAM, Stock Alerts, Volatility |
Shares of gene therapy player Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) soared 52.98% in the regular session today, December 10, and tacked on another 3.77% in after-hours trading. I always try to understand a huge one-day move like that–and frankly I frequently fail. Here’s my take on Sangamo’s big move on Thursday.
December 9, 2020 | Daily JAM, Volatility |
I bought the ProShares Short Russell 2000 ETF (RWM) back on October 30 because I felt then that the market wasn’t pricing in any of the potential problems likely to hurt the U.S. economy over the next couple of months. I picked the small cap Russell 2000 index for my downside bet because it was showing the most sensitivity to news–good and bad about the economy. Well, I got the sensitivity part right. But I missed the effect of huge cash inflows on stocks in general and the Russell in particular. Right now potential bad news and even actual bad news doesn’t matter much. Stocks keep going up. At the close on December 9, Wednesday, I had a 19.89% loss in this position after today’s slight 0.69% drop in the Russell 2000 (and 0.72% gain in this short ETF.) I’m not willing to let this loss get any bigger so I’m selling this position.
October 13, 2020 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, TWLO, Volatility |
This is something of a catch up post. On October 5 I added Twilio (TWLO) to my Jubak Picks and Volatility portfolios. I announced that buy in a post on October 2 and then again in my Special Report: "Your Investing Guide for the Next 6 Dangerous Stock Market Months" I...
October 6, 2020 | Daily JAM, Volatility |
I've written in my Special Report: Your Investing Guide to the Next 6 Dangerous Months in the Stock Market that I had been waiting for shares of American Airlines (AAL) to move farther above $13 before adding Put options to the Volatility Portfolio. And over the last...
September 28, 2020 | Daily JAM |
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August 11, 2020 | Daily JAM, Stock Alerts |
Shares of Vaxart (VXRT) were up 21.77% today to $11.44 as of 3:15 p.m. New York time. You'll remember that Vaxart is my pick in my Volatility Portfolio for participating in the coronavirus vaccine race that plunged 47.6% from $16.97 on July 14 to to $8.90 a share on...
