May 17, 2023 | Daily JAM, Volatility |
Investors and the market indexes remain convinced that the economy will dodge a recession, even if only narrowly. Retail companies, however, aren’t nearly so sure. In the last two days, both Home Depot (HD) and Target (TGT) have cut guidance for the quarter(s) ahead. Consumers, they say, are hesitant to take a trip down the aisle devoted t discretionary goods such as furniture and apparel. With the New York Federal Reserve reporting that consumers look increasingly stretched on their credit card balances, I don’t see that reluctance ending soon. So even if the economy as a whole dodges a recession, I think the shares of companies in the consumer discretionary sector are likely to report their own sector-specific recession or the next quarter or two.
April 27, 2023 | Daily JAM, IWM, RWM, Short Term, Special Reports |
I’m expecting modestly positive economic news in the next few days. Which will, in my opinion, create a low-risk opportunity to make big gains by going short this market in order to profit as stock prices fall. I’m looking to put the first of those shorts in place right now. With the rest to go into place in the days after the Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday, May 3. In this Special Report, I’ll explain this perhaps initially counter-intuitive call on short-term market direction and give you the details on five of my favorite shorts for profiting in this market. With the first short pick today
July 26, 2022 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, Jubak Picks |
With Walmart (WMT) shares down 7.74% as of noon New York time today, July 26, on the company’s warning yesterday about falling revenue, the pool of safe consumer stocks continues to shrink. Which is bad if you owned Walmart or Dollar General (DG), also down today (by 1.88%.) But good (so far) if you owned Coca-Cola (KO) or McDonald’s (MCD), which on the evidence of today’s earnings report are surfing the recession in decent shape. Shares of Coca-Cola were up 1.58% and shares of McDonald’s (MCD) were up 2.51% as of noon.
June 30, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-fifty-first YouTube video “Position Your Portfolio for the Recessioin–But What Kind of Recession”” went up today. I see it like this: How you should position your portfolio for the coming recession depends largely on how bad you think it will be. Already, we can see that different sectors of the economy will do better than others. For example, consumer staples seem like a good bet if we think the recession will be relatively mild, but if the recession gets worse, they won’t be immune either. Take a look and tell me what you think.
May 6, 2022 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, Friday Trick or Trend, HBI, KO |
For a day, Friday, May 6, at least the pattern of divergence between consumer staples stocks and consumer discretionary stocks that has ruled much of 2022 reasserted itself. Now the question is How long will the pattern hold?
April 5, 2022 | Daily JAM |
I’m not putting on any leverage bets on market direction at the moment. The trend is just too “trundles.”
December 21, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Yesterday the Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 1.14% and market leading stocks such as Applied Materials (AMAT) dropped 0.78%. Big drug stocks made up the only sector in the green as Pfizer (PFE) rose 2.59%,and AbbVie (ABBV) gained 1.23%. The fears yesterday were that the Omicron Variant of the Covid-19 virus would slow the economy and that Senator Joe Manchin had just killed prospects for any stimulus from the Biden Administration’s Build Back Better bill. Today the S&P 500 closed up 1.78%. A market leader like Applied Materials rose 4.42%. A big drug stock such as Pfizer was down 3.39%.
August 11, 2021 | Daily JAM, Videos |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My fortieth YouTube video “3 picks for the fall tech rotation”-went up today.
July 18, 2021 | Daily JAM |
Netflix (NFLX) earnings, due to be reported after the close on Tuesday, July 20, will be a major test of market sentiment. But beyond Netflix I’ll be looking to see if last week’s pattern of selling stocks dependent on a post-vaccine economic recovery continues. On Friday, for example, we saw Macy’s (M) drop 3.56% and amused,ent park operator Cedar Fair (FUN) fall 1.45%. Cyclicals such as Dow (DOW and Omnicom (OMC) were off 3.1% and 1.43%, respectively.
April 15, 2021 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Retail sales rose a stunning 9.8% in March from February’s pace, the Commerce Department reported today, April 15. In the earlier month retail sales fell 2.7%.
November 20, 2020 | Morning Briefing |
This morning on my way back from the farmers’ market, I passed a Whole Foods Market selling small Christmas trees for my “holiday table.” It’s November 20. Thanksgiving is NEXT week. You may be noticed other signs of retailers jumping the seasonal gun.
July 3, 2020 | Daily JAM, Friday Trick or Trend |
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Friday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. Watch these...
