April 12, 2021 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
Over the weekend I posted that I’d be looking at a possible buy of Call Options on the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) today–depending on how the VIX behaved in the Monday action. Today the VIX regained some of the ground that it gave up last week, closing ahead 1.92% to 1701 after closing at 16.69 on Friday. And I’m going to hold off on buying VIX Call Options until I see the trend in first quarter earnings reports.
April 12, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
This isn’t good news for the prospects for a sustained economic recovery in the United States from the pandemic recession of 2020. The 25 biggest U.S. banks reduced their total loan portfolios by 8% in 2021 through March from the same point in 2020, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest weekly survey.
April 11, 2021 | Daily JAM, Friday Trick or Trend, Long Term, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
Based on existing analyst forecasts for earnings in all of 2021, the S&P 500 trades at almost 24 times estimates, among its highest valuations ever. To bring the multiple down to its long-term average of 16 times annual profits, companies in the gauge will have to make about 15% more than the equity researchers currently expect them to earn — in 2023.
April 10, 2021 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, You Might Have Missed |
The week ahead could well bring even less volatility and even more complacency as we move into what everyone expects to be a stellar earnings season–at least in comparison to the first quarter of 2020
April 9, 2021 | Daily JAM, Short Term, You Might Have Missed |
The big question is how much of the huge year over year earnings growth in the first quarter is already priced into stocks. And how much more of a rally can we expect on expectations for even higher year over year earnings growth in the second quarter.
April 8, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
We want to see the job gains before we remove any support for the economy, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at an event at the International Monetary Fund, on Thursday, April 8. Putting another marker in the ground on when the central bank might start to cut back on its schedule to purchase $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities–and then to raise its benchmark interest rate, Powell said the Fed wants to see a string of months like March when the economy added 916,000 jobs.
April 8, 2021 | Daily JAM, Videos |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The eighteenth YouTube video “Best Pick for the Big Tech War” went up today.
April 8, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Initial claims for unemployment in regular state programs rose by 16,000 to 744,000 in the week ended April 3, the Labor Department reported today, April 8. This was the second straight weekly increase in new claims. For the prior week, the total new claims figure was revised upward to 728,000. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected that initial claims for the week would fall to 680,000.
April 7, 2021 | Daily JAM, Dip-O-Meter, Short Term, You Might Have Missed |
This buy on the dip moment is over–this week’s revision of my Dip-O-Meter argues to me. The discounts to the February highs are, in general, getting smaller. And in many cases the size of the bounce that I’m seeing on up days is decreasing too.
April 7, 2021 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
Nothing to see here. Move along. In the minutes from its March 16-17 meeting, released today April 7, Federal Reserve officials told the financial markets “that it would likely be some time until substantial further progress toward the [Open Market] Committee’s maximum-employment and price-stability goals would be realized.” And, the minutes went on, “a number of participants highlighted the importance of the Committee clearly communicating its assessment of progress toward its longer-run goals well in advance of the time when it could be judged substantial enough to warrant a change in the pace of asset purchases.”
April 7, 2021 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Volatility, WH |
Today, I’m going to review the fundamental case for Wyndham shares (the reason I added it to Jubak Picks on March 17) and give you the details on the Call Option on Wyndham that I’ll be adding to my Volatility Portfolio tomorrow.
April 6, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
A significant number of bond traders are betting that the calm in bond markets won’t last. Short interest in the $14 billion iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has climbed to about one-fifth of shares outstanding, the highest since early 2017, according to IHS Markit. Bearish bets, Bloomberg reports, have risen from just 7% at the start of 2021.
