Consumer sentiment rebounds on final revision

Consumer sentiment rebounds on final revision

U.S. consumer sentiment continued to rise in late September, reaching a five-month high on more optimism about the economy. The University of Michigan’s final September sentiment index rose to 70.1 from the 69 preliminary reading released earlier this month. The latest figure issued Friday follows an August index of 67.9.

Micron surge shows why it’s so hard to leave this market

Micron surge shows why it’s so hard to leave this market

This is why it’s so hard to sell this market in spite of stunningly high valuations. “This” is the 14.7% gain today in shares of Micron Technology after the company announced results for the fiscal fourth quarter and forecasts for fiscal first quarter revenue and earnings yesterday.

Today’s GDP revision unchanged at 3% growth–and that’s the news

Today’s GDP revision unchanged at 3% growth–and that’s the news

The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s third estimate of second quarter US gross domestic product (GDP) was unchanged from the second estimate which had shown 3% annualized growth. Economists had estimated the reading to show annualized growth of 2.9%. Add in a separate report on initial claims for unemployment the Labor Department that showed 218,000 new claims for unemployment were filed in the week ending September 21–Wall Street had been expecting 223,000 new claims for the week–and the data clearly show that the economy is, as Fed chair Jerome Powell said last week when the Fed cut interest rates, in good shape.

More monetary stimulus in China–but it’s the wrong medicine

More monetary stimulus in China–but it’s the wrong medicine

China’s central bank lowered the interest rate charged on its one-year policy loans by the most on record today, September 25. The People’s Bank of China cut the rate of the medium-term lending facility to 2% from 2.3%. The 30-basis-point cut was the biggest since the bank began using the monetary tool to guide market interest rates in 2016.
The move followed the bank’s announcement yesterday of a broad stimulus package.

China fires the big bazooka again–a sign of a panic?

China fires the big bazooka again–a sign of a panic?

There was a whiff of panic to the big moves by the People’s Bank today.China’s central bank cut a key short-term interest rate and announced plans to reduce the reserve ratio, the amount of money banks must hold in reserve, to the lowest level since at least 2018. This marked the first time reductions to both measures were revealed on the same day since at least 2015. And that wasn’t all.

Special Report: “10 New Stock Ideas for an Old Rally”–all 10 picks

Special Report: “10 New Stock Ideas for an Old Rally”–all 10 picks

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index had a banner first half of 2024 with the index climbing more than 17% as of June 30. But two-thirds of that gain is attributable to just six stocks: Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon.com (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), and Apple (AAPL.).Track the performance of equal-weighted version of the S&P 500–rather than the commonly tracked index where the contribution of any stock to the index is weighted by market cap–and the index was up just 3.9% in the first half of 2024. For the second half of 2024 and looking ahead to 2024, I’m not so much worried about the fundamentals of this extraordinary rally as I am by a failure of market imagination Everybody owns the same 6 stocks. Hey, I get the excitement around these stocks and the boom in Artificial Intelligence. I share it. Which is why I own shares of Nvidia, Amazon, and Alphabet in my online portfolios. But there are 494 other stocks in the S&P 500. And 2000 stocks in the small-cap Russell 2000.(Up 9% in the first half of 2024.)After a rally that has recorded 30 new record highs for the S&P 500 just the first half of n 2024, some of that other 494–or 2000–are actually better stock buys, and likely to out perform the 6 stocks everybody owns from their current record high prices. But which ones? That’s what my Special Report: “10 New Stock Ideas for an Old Rally” is all about.

Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…

Stocks and bonds are really expensive now

I understand why no one wants to get off the rally bus. Last week’s gains pushed the Standard & Poor’s 500’s total return for 2024 above 20% again. The index jumped 1.7% on Thursday, putting in its 39th record close of the year. Both stocks and Treasuries are headed for a fifth straight month of gains. But anyone expecting the S&P 500 to build on its year-to-date gain should consider that Wall Street’s own strategists already see the upside exhausted.