October 23, 2023 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
I know the bond market is getting most of the headlines at the moment. And it should be. By some measures, volatility in the Treasury market, you know, the old safe haven Treasury market, exceeds volatility in equities. And then there’s the drama of watching the assault on 5% yield on the 10-year Treasury. The drama isn’t just theatrics either. Above 5% yield on the 10-year Treasury there’s an increasing likelihood that something in this over-stretched credit market will break. But…you can’t ignore the stock market. The technical picture is increasly scary. Here too something looks like it could break–and not in a good way.
October 23, 2023 | Daily JAM, Special Reports |
The update to my Special Report: Your 10 Best Moves for the Rest of 2023, Part 2–10 of 10 Moves (revised on 10/22) includes the last one of my 10 picks, plus updated performance numbers for the stocks in the original post.I’m pleased to say that I think the advice is still what I would give today.
October 22, 2023 | AMZN, Daily JAM, Dividend Income, GOOG, Jubak Picks, KMB, KO, MSFT, Top 50 Stocks, XOM |
Investors see a ton of third-quarter earnings reports this coming week with news from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Alphabet quite capable of moving the entire market. We’ll also get more consumer company (Coca-Cola and Kimberly-Clark for example) reports to show whether last week’s higher revenue but lower volume pattern continues. And Wall Street is expecting negative new from oil companies ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) when they both report on Friday.
October 21, 2023 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
The U. S. economy, economists project, grew at the fastest rate in nearly two years in the third quarter. The actual figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis get released before the market opens on Thursday, October 26. Gross domestic product grew at a 4.3% annualized pace in the quarter, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
October 20, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The yield on the 10-year Treasury closed at 4.99% yesterday. Bond prices are up a bit today, Friday October 20, and as of 1 p.m. New York time, the yield on the 10-year had retreated 8 basis points to 4.91% I don’t think this changes the trend line–which is clearly pointing toward yields above 5%. I’m watching that level carefully for two reasons.
October 19, 2023 | ABBV, Daily JAM, Dividend Income |
Yesterday, October 18, Abbott Laboratories (ABT) reported third-quarter 2023 adjusted earnings of $1.14 per share. That beat the Wall Street consensus projection of $1.10 a share. This was an important transitional reset quarter for Abbott
October 18, 2023 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
Today, October 18, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to close at 4.91%. That was a gain in yield of another 8 basis points. The yield on the 10-year Treasury is up 61 basis points in the last month.
October 18, 2023 | Daily JAM |
There’s a pattern here: If you’re a big enough consumer goods company with the ability to raise prices and not hurt sales, then the just-ended quarter was a pretty good quarter. Today, October 18, Proctor & Gamble reported fiscal first quarter net sales of $21.9 billion, up 6% from the prior year vs.a Wall Street consensus projection of $21.62 billion.
October 18, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Today China reported third quarter GDP rose by 4.9% year over year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. That’s better than economics had expected and it’s within striking distance of Beijing’s goal of 5% growth for the year. Economists are still expecting growth to slow to 4.5% in 2024.
October 17, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Retail sales in September roe by 0.7% from August, the Commerce Department reported today. That was more than twice the All Street projector of 0.3% growth. I would note that these retail sales numbers are not adjusted for inflation. So yes, they may be surprisingly strong, given that Wall Street was expecting 0% growth once you subtract inflation. But they hardly indicate a “Nellie, bar the door” economic expansion.
October 16, 2023 | Daily JAM, Notes You Need |
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October 16, 2023 | Daily JAM |
The last thing global financial markets need right now is another Euro Crisis. But that could be what Italy is about to put in motion
