September 29, 2023 | Daily JAM |
Inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose 0.1% last month. The report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed inflation-adjusted spending on services rose 0.2%, helped by a pickup in outlays on transportation and recreation. Spending on merchandise fell 0.2%, the first drop since March, as purchases of motor vehicles and home furnishings declined. While wages and salaries growth accelerated, real disposable income declined by 0.2% for a second month.
September 29, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index (PCE) rose at the slowest monthly pace inAugust since late 2020. The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out food and energy prices, climbed just 0.1% month to month in August, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis today, Friday, September 29. The so-called super core inflation index for services, which has been on the Fed’s watch list lately, also posted the smallest monthly advance since 2020. The super core rate also strips out housing costs. That rate climbed by just 0.1% in August.
September 28, 2023 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity, rose an annualized 0.8% in the April-to-June quarter, according to the third estimate of gross domestic product from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The last estimate put the annualized growth rate at 1.7%.
September 28, 2023 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
Mortgage rates surged to a 23-year high this week. The rate on the average 30-year fixed mortgage increased to 7.31% from 7.19% the week prior, according to Freddie Mac. That’s the highest rate since mid-December 2000, when it averaged 7.42%.
September 27, 2023 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Special Reports |
I added three more moves to the four that I’d posted yesterday to bring the total moves in Part 2 of my Special Report up to 7.
September 26, 2023 | AAPL, ADBE, ALB, AMAT, EUM, GOLD, LAC, Morning Briefing, MSFT, NVDA, PILBF, RWM, SCCO, Short Term, Special Reports, UUP, Volatility |
So what do you do with your portfolio for the rest of 2023? And what’s your best strategy to be prepared for 2024? In Part 1 of this Special Report I laid out the 10 developments that I thought would drive the financial markets for the rest of 223 and into 2024. Today, in Part 2, I’m going to give you the first 2 of 10 moves to take–with as much detail and as many specifics as possible–that you should be making now to position your portfolio for the uncertainties of the last quarter of 2023.
September 25, 2023 | CSCO, Daily JAM, MCD, MSFT, Notes You Need |
I haven’t done one of these in a while, but I think that this current market is throwing up lots of hints that might contribute to an investing thesis but that don’t deserve a full post. So here I go with Notes You Need again.
September 24, 2023 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index (closing price) peaked on July 31 at 4588.96. The index is down 5.9% since then (as of the September 22 close.) That’s not correction territory (a drop of 10% ore more) but I’d say stocks can feel the hot breath of a correction on the back of their necks, The small-cap Russell 2000 Index has lost more than 11% from its July 31 closing high, roughly twice the decline in the S&P 500 Index over the same time. There are other signs of trouble in the stock market.
September 24, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term, Volatility |
Tomorrow, Monday, morning I’ll buy CBOE S&P Volatility Index (VIX) Call Options (so the options will go up in price if volatility does) for my Volatility Portfolio. I’m buying the December 20 Call Options with a strike price of 17 (VIX231220C00017000.)
September 23, 2023 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
Expect dueling news watches this week. Garnering most of the pixels will be the countdown to a government shutdown if Congress doesn’t pass a stopgap continuing resolution to keep funding the federal government by September 30. Odds are good right now that the House of Representatives won’t meet the deadline and the many government departments will shut down next week. And on Friday, investors get the next release of the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation series, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index.
September 22, 2023 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
Yeah, you’ve read all the stories about who will get hurt by a government shutdown–folks who need passports, communities in need of disaster aid, childcare centers, air travelers–and I’m sure your full up to your eyeballs with stories about how the Republican majority in in House is so dysfunctional that Speaker Kevin McCarthy couldn’t win a vote to declare water wet. But I’ve got some really good news: because the statisticians who compile the data on GDP, employment trends, producer and consumer prices, and other indicators that track the economy will be furloughed if the government shuts down, we’re not likely to know the full extent of the damage until we’re well into what could be a prolonged shutdown. Of course, it’s not clear that not knowing will be appreciated by financial markets that are already looking a bit anxious.
September 21, 2023 | Daily JAM |
In its interest rate policy decisions, the Federal Reserve is trying to figure out how much of past interest rate increases have already worked their way through the economy and how much of a slowdown is still to come. Today’s housing number from the National Association of Realtors doesn’t answer that question, but the data certainly suggests that the slowdown is still slowing down. The number of previously owned homes sold in the United States dropped by 21% percent over the past year
