On Saturday, January 15, in my “Saturday Night Quarterback” post wrote that conflict (a more comprehensive term than “war) between Russia and Ukraine remained a low probability event–but that the probability wasn’t zero and the the odds of conflict had increased in the past month. What’s happened since then? The odds of conflict have climbed
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My ninetieth YouTube video “3 Picks on Tech Stock Guidance” went up today.
In the first section of this Special Report: When will the selling stop? When to buy What to buy” posted back on January 11, I said that I’d look to buy in tiers. And thus stagger my buying to take account of any earnings season selling and any volatility around the Fed’s January 26 meeting. In the first tier, I said, back on January 11, I said I’d look for former momentum and earnings growth favorites, especially in the technology sector, that had taken big hits in the selling from the November 19 high. The three first tier buys were Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and and the first three buys back on January 11 were Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, and Adobe (ADBE). I said I’d name my second tier picks after bank earnings. Which means today.
This morning big money center banks JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Citigroup (C) delivered disappointing reports on fourth quarter revenue and earnings. Shares of JPMorgan Chase finished the day down 6.15%. Citigroup shares closed lower by 1.25%. But Wells Fargo (WFC) crushed earnings estimates for its fourth quarter. The stock gained 3.68% by the close.
Wells Fargo (WFC) is scheduled to report fourth quarter 2021 earnings on Friday, January 14. The bank is expected to be one of the few big money center banks to show a significant increase in earnings for the lat quarter of 2021 from the fourth quarter of 2020 (when numbers were elevated by a big recovery from the Pandemic bottom.) The Wall Street consensus projects fourth quarter earnings of $1.09 a share, up from 64 cents a share in the fourth quarter of 2020. (I’d note that the bank has delivered a positive earnings surprise above analyst projections in the last 4 quarters.) This is a good time to buy bank stocks.
If you worry about what worries me right now, I know what you want to know. When will the selling stop? When will it be a good time to buy “bargains”? And What stocks should you buy when you begin to buy? Those are the three questions that I’ll answer in this Special Report. Along with listing my first three buys on this selling.
When I bought shares of Apple (AAPL) in my Jubak Picks and Volatility Portfolios, I was looking for gains from the end of the year rally (which kind of fizzed out) and the traditional Santa Claus rally (which came through as expected) to drive shares higher in the short term. Since that November 23, 2021 pick, shares of Apple, as of the close today January 4, were up 12% to $179.70, just above my $179 target price for this short-term trade.
This earnings season looks so tricky that I’m going to sit it out rather than attempt to leverage moves in the shares of reporting companies by purchasing either Call (a bet that the stock will go up) or Put (a bet that the stock will go down) options.
As of the close in New York today Ford Motor (F) shares were up 11.67% after the company announced it would nearly double production capacity to meet demand for its upcoming F-150 Lightning electric pickup truck. The price of $24.31 is a 21-year high for Ford’s stock.
Ford Motor (F) CEO Jim Farley said yesterday, December 9, that pre-orders for the soon-to-launch F-150 Lightning pickup truck are so great that it had to stop taking reservations. Ford shares were up 9.81% today, Friday, December 10 as of the New York close.
As I noted in my posts over the weekend, I think that along with all the general volatility and the rotation away from high moment and higher price-to-earnings ratio technology stocks, the last week or so saw a rotation into “safe” haven stocks such as utilities and Big Pharma. Which is one of the reason I’m adding Bristol-Myers stock to my Jubak Picks Portfolio as of December 7
After a huge rally like we’re had this year, it’s easy to fall into one of the most common buy on the dip traps. Just because a stock is cheaper than it was, it’s not necessarily a bargain. There’s nothing that says a stock has to return to its previous price after a dip. And especially that it has to return to that former price on your schedule. Let me use Disney (DIS), one of the stocks I’m tracking in my Dip-O-Meter, as an example.
